The main reason for this collapse, which will also affect the usa stock market at opening today, is the last week CPI data a above the estimates rate, this leads traders to think that the next rates hikes will not be 0.5 but 0.75, if that happens it will be a big bloody week, if FED keeps 0.5 market will have big bounce, everything will depend also on Powell speech, This weekly meeting turns out to be one of the most complex.

Celsius fact is also giving a big bearish momentum, Eth collapse also causing a cascade of liquidations.

I was expecting local bottom at 28k for Btc and 1500 $ for Eth as you know and I was wrong, this all happened at those price levels and caused those supports to break. As said and repeated throughout 2022, we are in the bear market and this is the only certainty we have, is thinking that market will return as 2021, it is impossible, it will probably never happen again, it will evolve and we will have new hype, no doubt and new catalysts, 95% of current altcoins will be forgotten, all things already said and repeated, only thing what we can do is be patient and keep stablecoin profits safe.

For those who were in 2018, know that all this is normal, we have had some of Ico hiped CEO running away, projects dying, Cryptopia, coinexchange and Novaexchange scamming user and running away ... 95% 2017 hiped project went to 0, some have continued to build and have had a great run then in 2020/2021, history always repeats itself and will continue to do so.

Usa stock market opening looks brutal.

This is the pre-market

Yes, I was surprised by the break of that 28k structure. I believe that LFG dump and Celsius facts have accelerated the sell pressure and perhaps we would never have seen sub 28k. Btc adotption and hashrate continues to increase in any case, different to 2018 and Summer 2021. FA has not changed, the only difference is now you have BTC more cheap now. I can't tell you if bottom is here, as I said at the beginning of the year we are experiencing a phase of great events so FA dominates on TA and things going to change day by day, the only thing I could do was to alert you to the earthquake that was about to come due the Fed announcement on december and and consequences of rising inflation, ie rates hikes and imminent QT, in my thread from January 12th.

Only thing I can tell you that Btc is still BTC, what is causing great sell pressure are external factors that we will soon forget when Btc makes new aths in the following years.

For EU friends.

Today #BCE announced emergency advice today to talk about spreads, btp and government bonds, announcing a series of rate hikes, probably the euro will gain ground against the dollar back. Good idea convert some stablecoin into fiat probably.

For who are in stable from last months knows very well we observed gain of 10,20,30% + on stablecoin depending on when you traded them vs Crypto asset. Maybe its time to take profit now, BCE begins his hawkish moves

Market reacted punctual.

Powell today in ''whatever it takes'' style.

..but the nightmares of 3ac, celsius and defi tornado are still among us, I don't see the sl bottom here to return to the 28-30k area yet. A bullish divergence to 16-18k would be a clear bottom signal.

https://twitter.com/criptopaul/status/1536969240997240834?s=21&t=VeP1fi8SeNSAGH5ACumywA

theoretically if we are going to 23-24k then at 16-18k this divergence would occur, in any case we are very close to the bottom..

My market recap Linked to my January 2012 thread and what i think about for the future.

https://twitter.com/criptopaul/status/1537334552028487681?s=21&t=wojvs9D1ULpj_CZFx3WaFg

#BTC #BTCUSD

Halving forecast-discussion becomes common again as usual in bear markets, if we look at historical data, max excursion from 200Ma:
-in 2015 was 65% ,would mean a dip to 14-15k range
-for 2018 51% (actual price)

-about 4-8 months bottom/accumulation structure

If we were to see a V-bottom structure it would be wise, put some limits orders in all your favorite crypto on Cex.

#Bitcoin 

considering 4 july date as market usually with very low volume and liquidity, especially being on monday, so a long weekend, we could see dip until that date and then buy pressure after.


Already this capitulation under 20k is without strenght looking at rsi and volume. Divergences are created when retail users are selling small amounts, after whales already have dip, the same happen at the top (remember the big divergence from april to may 2021?) ... I expect some buy pressure on mid july

We could see something like this

18.500
21.500
16.500
21.000
33.000

the party is already over, time to go down again imo.

Don't think we'll see bullrun again soon, most funds are mostly liquid now or their allocations are in bonds or some currencies like $CAD , $AUD , $ZAR or emerging exporting countries like Indonesia/South america.

We had long and bullrun and strong returns on the back of robust economic growth and risk appetite due to accommodative monetary policies.

We are currently in the advanced stages of the economic cycle, called recession or valley, there will be great opportunities for accumulation in the next two years, now it's all about preserving capital, taking advantage of some market relief opportunities.

In this period of uncertainty, I am focusing on investing only in solid crypto businesses / companies that can hold up better right now, favoring higher quality exposures that can see substantial bounce in the coming weeks and where i can see a good price.


As history teaches in these moments it is better to privilege less cyclical and higher quality assets, resilient to the dynamics of advanced phases of the cycle as we are now.

To be clear, remember $bnb, $link from 2018 to 2020 for example

If you want to understand the difference between the Japanese and the rest of the world and how they have been able to keep inflation at 2%.

https://twitter.com/criptopaul/status/1540569740220973056?s=21&t=hT9KTpnjsu89O4nDx6VGsA

$avax outperforming $eth 40%+ from this tweet.

But people were probably too focused on looking at eth and thinking about eth 2.0

https://twitter.com/criptopaul/status/1536970179204333568?s=21&t=hT9KTpnjsu89O4nDx6VGsA

it has been a huge safeguard for me during this time. I have 0 eth from 2022.

-Left chart, comparision with Nov 2018 at 4100$

After that we saw full bottom at 3100.

Theorically if we go to 16.500 with this low volume we will see a bullish divergence on daily chart as the end of 2018 and start of 2019.