Again.. i still think we can see a bounce at this level?

Yeah, but we can also see a BTC solo pump, or in any case go to absorb liquid in these dip-bounce then dip again. It will take a long time before to see a general bottom of the market and a reversal trend, do not delude yourself that it can happen soon, this cycle it’s over, get ready for the next, learn from all the mistakes, only in this way you can treasure about the wrong choices, but learn how to do less wrong choices in the future.

ETH to 1500$ its just a matter of time

#BTC Dominance

Why was I very careful to warn you about the risks of the rise in BTC dominance ?

Because it is really important.
It was 2017, when I started studying the correlation of BTC pairs, coming from traditional financial markets where DXY was the needle in that case and I later noticed how eth decided above all altcoin and dex volume so eth / btc pair, since that day I have been keeping a btc D chart open every day in the same way as btc usd, naturally when btc dominance goes up in bear market also goes up usdt D.

The concept is simple as it is really important to look, Cex traders, whales shelter their capital in less risky assets, selling altcoins for usdt and btc, some in FIAT at that point the total mcap comes into play, observing these phenomens is about primary importance ... as you can see from January and February that I warned of the imminent altcoin bubble , over valutation everywhere and was a clear index, and here we are now...
and believe me there is never end, difficult to determine where an asset can go .. I will never forget that eth went to $ 80 from $ 1450 and it was the real innovation at that time, the same will happen for Solana and the similar... i can't say the bottom is in for altcoin market now, only an unconscious would tell you this now, we are on this bottom level of btc as called months ago a 28k about as you know, i said eth would go to 1500 sooner or later, i also said we are going to see a technical rebound, we are closer to this than to a further capitulation from here, there is no doubt about this, although afterwards we may see new lows, but let's go step by step from here

Don't forget

Have a nice day.

Ok well, all as expected, now we just have to wait and see the next btc dump if it will create an HL and then an HH from where dump starts ... that would be a very good sign of strength

Consider, this is what happened in 2018 when FEd started QT on the end of 2017. S&P started to dump on 24 Jan 2018, while BTC on mid Dec 2017. S&P had a bounce on mid 2018 and new ath on Oct 2018 , then new dumped hard until Jan 2019 where also BTC has found his bottom.


What this shows us by comparing it with 2018?
That perhaps the market has learned its lesson and acted preventively from the FED announcements of Nov 2021. Plus we now have a pandemic and a war that changes every scenario imo, so its really complicated to predict the market based on QT start, for sure QT is not a good thing for the market , as you know i warned from january, explaining how the consequences are :
-less risk attitude from each investors retails or not
-liquidity being drained from the market
-and obviously a bear market.

Here was the entire thread:
https://twitter.com/criptopaul/status/1481304767691472904?s=21&t=3_jMqEIXZ8nGsJwACZwoMQ

The main reason for this collapse, which will also affect the usa stock market at opening today, is the last week CPI data a above the estimates rate, this leads traders to think that the next rates hikes will not be 0.5 but 0.75, if that happens it will be a big bloody week, if FED keeps 0.5 market will have big bounce, everything will depend also on Powell speech, This weekly meeting turns out to be one of the most complex.

Celsius fact is also giving a big bearish momentum, Eth collapse also causing a cascade of liquidations.

I was expecting local bottom at 28k for Btc and 1500 $ for Eth as you know and I was wrong, this all happened at those price levels and caused those supports to break. As said and repeated throughout 2022, we are in the bear market and this is the only certainty we have, is thinking that market will return as 2021, it is impossible, it will probably never happen again, it will evolve and we will have new hype, no doubt and new catalysts, 95% of current altcoins will be forgotten, all things already said and repeated, only thing what we can do is be patient and keep stablecoin profits safe.

For those who were in 2018, know that all this is normal, we have had some of Ico hiped CEO running away, projects dying, Cryptopia, coinexchange and Novaexchange scamming user and running away ... 95% 2017 hiped project went to 0, some have continued to build and have had a great run then in 2020/2021, history always repeats itself and will continue to do so.

Usa stock market opening looks brutal.

This is the pre-market

Yes, I was surprised by the break of that 28k structure. I believe that LFG dump and Celsius facts have accelerated the sell pressure and perhaps we would never have seen sub 28k. Btc adotption and hashrate continues to increase in any case, different to 2018 and Summer 2021. FA has not changed, the only difference is now you have BTC more cheap now. I can't tell you if bottom is here, as I said at the beginning of the year we are experiencing a phase of great events so FA dominates on TA and things going to change day by day, the only thing I could do was to alert you to the earthquake that was about to come due the Fed announcement on december and and consequences of rising inflation, ie rates hikes and imminent QT, in my thread from January 12th.

Only thing I can tell you that Btc is still BTC, what is causing great sell pressure are external factors that we will soon forget when Btc makes new aths in the following years.