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#onchain #crypto #cryptotrading
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#onchain #crypto #cryptotrading
Behavioral in #Bitcoin Cycles
Throughout its history, the #Bitcoin market has exhibited clear cyclical behavior from both short-term and long-term users. These cycles can primarily be categorized depending on the market's state, whether bullish or bearish.
Bearish Phase
During bearish markets, we observe a recurring pattern: long-term users tend to accumulate while prices are declining. However, not all of these users are experienced investors. Many entered the market during FOMO (fear of missing out) phases, buying at the top and getting trapped throughout the bearish cycle by not selling in time.
In the later stages of the bearish phase, institutional actors also emerge, taking advantage of the falling prices to inject large amounts of capital, finding enough liquidity in the downturn to make significant purchases.
Once the market reaches its cycle lows, we notice a decrease in long-term users capital, especially those who bought near the all-time highs and finally sell after being unable to bear further losses. At the same time, there is a rebound in short-term user activity, generally more experienced participants, who begin accumulating positions in anticipation of the upcoming bullish phase.
Bullish Phase
During the bullish phase, it’s crucial to identify key areas of the cycle (marked in orange), as these signal the start of a new bullrun. In this phase, we observe a significant increase in short-term users and a decline in long-term users.
In the early stages of the bullrun, traders and institutions detect the shift in market direction, and at the same time, long-term users with larger capital start selling as prices rise. Toward the end of the bullish cycle, short-term users enter the market driven by FOMO, while long-term users continue to sell. These new short-term users eventually become trapped long-term holders when the market reverses direction, starting the bearish cycle all over again.
This cyclical behavior has been a constant in the Bitcoin network over the years, and it is highly likely that we will see it repeat in the current cycle.
#BTC #Crypto #Onchain
Throughout its history, the #Bitcoin market has exhibited clear cyclical behavior from both short-term and long-term users. These cycles can primarily be categorized depending on the market's state, whether bullish or bearish.
Bearish Phase
During bearish markets, we observe a recurring pattern: long-term users tend to accumulate while prices are declining. However, not all of these users are experienced investors. Many entered the market during FOMO (fear of missing out) phases, buying at the top and getting trapped throughout the bearish cycle by not selling in time.
In the later stages of the bearish phase, institutional actors also emerge, taking advantage of the falling prices to inject large amounts of capital, finding enough liquidity in the downturn to make significant purchases.
Once the market reaches its cycle lows, we notice a decrease in long-term users capital, especially those who bought near the all-time highs and finally sell after being unable to bear further losses. At the same time, there is a rebound in short-term user activity, generally more experienced participants, who begin accumulating positions in anticipation of the upcoming bullish phase.
Bullish Phase
During the bullish phase, it’s crucial to identify key areas of the cycle (marked in orange), as these signal the start of a new bullrun. In this phase, we observe a significant increase in short-term users and a decline in long-term users.
In the early stages of the bullrun, traders and institutions detect the shift in market direction, and at the same time, long-term users with larger capital start selling as prices rise. Toward the end of the bullish cycle, short-term users enter the market driven by FOMO, while long-term users continue to sell. These new short-term users eventually become trapped long-term holders when the market reverses direction, starting the bearish cycle all over again.
This cyclical behavior has been a constant in the Bitcoin network over the years, and it is highly likely that we will see it repeat in the current cycle.
#BTC #Crypto #Onchain
This #Bitcoin cycle is different from previous ones in several ways. We have seen all-time highs before the halving, the approval of #BTC ETFs, and other important milestones. It has also been atypical in terms of breaking historical highs: after reaching them, we have not managed to consolidate above them in a few weeks, something not seen in previous cycles. We've been close to the highs for 8 months, but we haven't been able to consolidate above them and kick off the much-anticipated bullrun.
In the chart, we analyzed the behavior of long-term holders (LTH), and we will observe something that we haven't seen in other cycles.
· First study: Proportion of gains and losses of the inactive supply from LTH
We represent the gains (in green) and losses (in red) of the inactive supply from LTH, in relation to the total (in orange). Historically, when gains represent the entire market, bullruns occur. This makes sense, as when all-time highs are reached, LTHs are not selling at a loss.
· Second study: Spent supply from LTH
Once again, we represent gains in green, losses in red, and the total in orange. Here, we confirm that during bullruns, all LTHs sell their bitcoins at a profit. This is also logical since, as mentioned earlier, all LTHs are in profit.
· Third study: Average age of spent supply from LTH selling at a loss
In this analysis, the most notable point is that we have not yet seen large areas where LTHs are selling at a loss, which makes sense since we have barely consolidated above the 2021 all-time highs. However, the most interesting and different aspect of this cycle is that, for the first time, we are seeing newly-entered LTHs selling at a loss before surpassing all-time highs.
In previous cycles, like in early 2017, LTHs who sold at a loss had held their bitcoins for more than 1200 days, as the retracement period was much shorter. In this cycle, the average age is around 200 days, indicating that these users bought between March and May of 2024. This means that, for the first time, we have seen sales at a loss with so few days between purchase and sale. If we are indeed in a consolidation phase and many are buying this zone in anticipation of a bullrun, these sales represent significant liquidity for those entering the market.
#crypto #cryptomarket #onchain
In the chart, we analyzed the behavior of long-term holders (LTH), and we will observe something that we haven't seen in other cycles.
· First study: Proportion of gains and losses of the inactive supply from LTH
We represent the gains (in green) and losses (in red) of the inactive supply from LTH, in relation to the total (in orange). Historically, when gains represent the entire market, bullruns occur. This makes sense, as when all-time highs are reached, LTHs are not selling at a loss.
· Second study: Spent supply from LTH
Once again, we represent gains in green, losses in red, and the total in orange. Here, we confirm that during bullruns, all LTHs sell their bitcoins at a profit. This is also logical since, as mentioned earlier, all LTHs are in profit.
· Third study: Average age of spent supply from LTH selling at a loss
In this analysis, the most notable point is that we have not yet seen large areas where LTHs are selling at a loss, which makes sense since we have barely consolidated above the 2021 all-time highs. However, the most interesting and different aspect of this cycle is that, for the first time, we are seeing newly-entered LTHs selling at a loss before surpassing all-time highs.
In previous cycles, like in early 2017, LTHs who sold at a loss had held their bitcoins for more than 1200 days, as the retracement period was much shorter. In this cycle, the average age is around 200 days, indicating that these users bought between March and May of 2024. This means that, for the first time, we have seen sales at a loss with so few days between purchase and sale. If we are indeed in a consolidation phase and many are buying this zone in anticipation of a bullrun, these sales represent significant liquidity for those entering the market.
#crypto #cryptomarket #onchain
When we study most #BTC metrics that represent profit or loss-taking, we almost always get similar results. These metrics are incredibly useful in detecting whether we are at a market bottom (accumulation) or, conversely, at a market top (distribution). In today’s dashboard, we display the price of #Bitcoin at the top, the coin days destroyed in profit (green) and loss (red) in the middle section, and the realized profit/loss ratio at the bottom.
If we aim to identify areas where a bear market could end, we look for losses. By applying moving averages with specific lenghts, we can detect with great precision the ideal entry points into the market, seeking areas of significant losses and minimal gains. As we’ve mentioned on several occasions, zones with substantial losses always represent liquidity for large capital investors who want to enter the market without pushing the price against themselves. As seen in the image, the market entry zones are clearly marked on the dashboard we’ve created, labeled as buy areas.
On the other hand, if we aim to detect areas where a bull market could end, we look for profits. This is not as straightforward as identifying bear market bottoms, as behaviors vary depending on the metrics we analyze. It is well known that the most challenging part of investing is knowing when to exit the market.
However, one pattern we’ve observed in the last two bull cycles is related to the coin days destroyed in profit metric. While the price climbed higher, this metric showed lower highs, forming a divergence. This suggests that even though higher prices were reached, either the volume transferred was much lower or the holding time of the bitcoins being sold was shorter, indicating that long-term holders (LTH) had already taken profits.
As for the realized profit/loss ratio, we see two possible behaviors with a similar meaning to what was described above. In 2017, the price kept rising while the metric failed to reach new highs, confirming what we saw with coin days destroyed in profit. If the price increases, the profit ratio should rise as well, as profitability should align with price growth. Since this wasn’t the case, it signaled a weakening trend, with profits being taken earlier or with a decreasing volume of gains.
In 2021, this pattern was even clearer, with a strong divergence between rising prices and lower highs in the metric. Even during the later price surge towards the end of 2021, the ratio was much lower, indicating that the November ATH was clearly manipulated, driven by short-term holders.
We will be closely monitoring these metrics in the coming months, as they could be key in signaling when we will reach the end of the current cycle. We may see a pattern similar to 2017, with a gradual slowdown, or 2021, with a more pronounced divergence. However, it is also possible that we are witnessing an entirely new behavior, given the current market context and the participation of institutional investors.
Finally, if you’d like access to these dashboards, purchase one of our data plans, and we’ll provide them to you. This way, you’ll always stay informed about which phase of the market we’re in.
#crypto #cryptotrading #onchain
If we aim to identify areas where a bear market could end, we look for losses. By applying moving averages with specific lenghts, we can detect with great precision the ideal entry points into the market, seeking areas of significant losses and minimal gains. As we’ve mentioned on several occasions, zones with substantial losses always represent liquidity for large capital investors who want to enter the market without pushing the price against themselves. As seen in the image, the market entry zones are clearly marked on the dashboard we’ve created, labeled as buy areas.
On the other hand, if we aim to detect areas where a bull market could end, we look for profits. This is not as straightforward as identifying bear market bottoms, as behaviors vary depending on the metrics we analyze. It is well known that the most challenging part of investing is knowing when to exit the market.
However, one pattern we’ve observed in the last two bull cycles is related to the coin days destroyed in profit metric. While the price climbed higher, this metric showed lower highs, forming a divergence. This suggests that even though higher prices were reached, either the volume transferred was much lower or the holding time of the bitcoins being sold was shorter, indicating that long-term holders (LTH) had already taken profits.
As for the realized profit/loss ratio, we see two possible behaviors with a similar meaning to what was described above. In 2017, the price kept rising while the metric failed to reach new highs, confirming what we saw with coin days destroyed in profit. If the price increases, the profit ratio should rise as well, as profitability should align with price growth. Since this wasn’t the case, it signaled a weakening trend, with profits being taken earlier or with a decreasing volume of gains.
In 2021, this pattern was even clearer, with a strong divergence between rising prices and lower highs in the metric. Even during the later price surge towards the end of 2021, the ratio was much lower, indicating that the November ATH was clearly manipulated, driven by short-term holders.
We will be closely monitoring these metrics in the coming months, as they could be key in signaling when we will reach the end of the current cycle. We may see a pattern similar to 2017, with a gradual slowdown, or 2021, with a more pronounced divergence. However, it is also possible that we are witnessing an entirely new behavior, given the current market context and the participation of institutional investors.
Finally, if you’d like access to these dashboards, purchase one of our data plans, and we’ll provide them to you. This way, you’ll always stay informed about which phase of the market we’re in.
#crypto #cryptotrading #onchain
As we saw last week, the 30-day average MVRV for #Bitcoin was close to breaking the level 1 barrier. Since then, it has managed to surpass that level, and these users are now back in unrealized profits. The big question now is: will they be able to hold this level, or will we see unrealized losses again?
It's often said that long-term holders are mostly the ones determining the key buy and sell zones in #Bitcoin. While this is partly true, following the swing traders on the network also gives us significant entry and exit points. In the chart, we can see bitcoins spent with profits between 1 and 3 months.
#Btc #crypto #onchain #Tradingview #Nodecharts
#Btc #crypto #onchain #Tradingview #Nodecharts
📈 Good Signals for Bitcoin!
We've just published a new report on Nodecharts where we analyze Bitcoin's recent surge and how our Signals tool indicates a possible start of a new bullish cycle. Discover how breakouts in moving averages and other on-chain indicators can help you anticipate key market movements.
Don't miss this opportunity to stay ahead. Read the full report here 👇
https://nodecharts.com/en/good-signals-for-bitcoin/
We've just published a new report on Nodecharts where we analyze Bitcoin's recent surge and how our Signals tool indicates a possible start of a new bullish cycle. Discover how breakouts in moving averages and other on-chain indicators can help you anticipate key market movements.
Don't miss this opportunity to stay ahead. Read the full report here 👇
https://nodecharts.com/en/good-signals-for-bitcoin/
Nodecharts
Nodecharts #033 - Good Signals for Bitcoin
On-chain analysis reveals positive signals for Bitcoin. Discover how our Signals tool indicates a possible start of a bullrun
Since March, during #Bitcoin’s price consolidation, the Difficulty ribbons have identified points that, as observed in mid-2022 and early 2023, have historically been prime opportunities to enter the market. In this chart, green and orange zones represent moments with high probabilities of favorable entry points, especially from a medium- to long-term investment perspective.
The Difficulty ribbons illustrate how miner selling pressure impacts Bitcoin’s price. When the network difficulty slows its growth, less profitable miners tend to exit the market, leaving only the strongest, who need to sell fewer coins to cover operating costs. This reduces selling pressure and creates a more favorable environment for price growth.
Optimal points to acquire #Bitcoin often coincide with areas where the ribbons compress, which allows us to observe the rate of change in network difficulty. While price corrections can occur afterward, these zones have historically proven to be excellent opportunities.
The Difficulty ribbons illustrate how miner selling pressure impacts Bitcoin’s price. When the network difficulty slows its growth, less profitable miners tend to exit the market, leaving only the strongest, who need to sell fewer coins to cover operating costs. This reduces selling pressure and creates a more favorable environment for price growth.
Optimal points to acquire #Bitcoin often coincide with areas where the ribbons compress, which allows us to observe the rate of change in network difficulty. While price corrections can occur afterward, these zones have historically proven to be excellent opportunities.
Two metrics that help us understand the behavior of network users are the average age of spent outputs and the median age of spent outputs. These metrics indicate the average and median days between the acquisition and sale of bitcoins, allowing us to observe whether those selling have recently entered the market or, on the contrary, have been in it for some time.
In the following chart, we will focus only on the cohort of users in losses. We have marked areas that indicate buying opportunities in green and potential selling zones in red. How did we create these areas?
Read more
In the following chart, we will focus only on the cohort of users in losses. We have marked areas that indicate buying opportunities in green and potential selling zones in red. How did we create these areas?
Read more
When is the ideal time to sell in the Bitcoin market? In our latest on-chain analysis, we explore key sell signals and how to interpret distribution phases.
Check out the full analysis: Read more
Check out the full analysis: Read more
Are We Entering a FOMO Phase in the crypto market?
This is a fundamental question we should consider at each stage of Bitcoin’s cycle.
How can we measure FOMO with on-chain data?
Read full analysis here: https://nodecharts.com/en/are-we-entering-a-fomo-phase/
This is a fundamental question we should consider at each stage of Bitcoin’s cycle.
How can we measure FOMO with on-chain data?
Read full analysis here: https://nodecharts.com/en/are-we-entering-a-fomo-phase/
Nodecharts
Are We Entering a FOMO Phase?
This is a fundamental question we should consider at each stage of Bitcoin’s cycle.How can we measure FOMO with on-chain data?There are various metrics
We anticipated #Bitcoin’s rise from $70k to $90k thanks to our #onchain data.
Discover in our latest report how key metrics and the STUDIO PRO tool help you identify cycle ends and #trading opportunities.
Read the full report here: https://nodecharts.com/en/on-chain-data-predicted-this-bull-run/
#BTC #crypto
Discover in our latest report how key metrics and the STUDIO PRO tool help you identify cycle ends and #trading opportunities.
Read the full report here: https://nodecharts.com/en/on-chain-data-predicted-this-bull-run/
#BTC #crypto
Nodecharts
Nodecharts #034 - On-chain data predicted this bull run
On-chain analysis reveals positive signals for Bitcoin. Discover how our Signals tool indicates a possible start of a bullrun
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💥 Get 40% off using the code BLACKFRIDAY40 on:
☑️ New data plans.
☑️ On-chain Courses (Spanish).
☑️ Renewals and upgrades to your current subscription.
What does this offer include?
· A 40% discount on new plans and advanced training to master on-chain analysis.
· If you're already a Nodecharts member, renew or upgrade your plan with a 40% discount. The remaining months of your current plan will be added to your new higher-tier plan. This is the perfect time to unlock greater benefits!
Why shouldn’t you miss this offer?
With this promotion, you’ll gain access to advanced tools to understand capital flow, identify key entry and exit points, and maximize your results in the cryptocurrency market.
📅 This special offer is available until December 3rd.
💻 Use the code BLACKFRIDAY40 at checkout to enjoy this exclusive discount.
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Don’t miss this unique opportunity!
You can pay with crypto 😎
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Unlock 40% OFF with the coupon BLACKFRIDAY40 🔑
📅 Valid until Dec 3, 2024.
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When will the crypto market top be reached?
In recent weeks, this question has been asked far too many times, and the reality is that no one knows the “when.” What we #onchain analysts do know is the “how.”
Read full analysis here: https://nodecharts.com/en/when-will-the-market-top-be-reached/
In recent weeks, this question has been asked far too many times, and the reality is that no one knows the “when.” What we #onchain analysts do know is the “how.”
Read full analysis here: https://nodecharts.com/en/when-will-the-market-top-be-reached/
Nodecharts
When will the market top be reached?
In recent weeks, this question has been asked far too many times, and the reality is that no one knows the "when." What we on-chain analysts do know is