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For the first time in almost three years, the initiative in the war appears to be shifting toward Ukraine, according to The Economist.

Over the past 30 days, Russia has lost control of 113 sq km of Ukrainian territory. After a difficult winter marked by sustained strikes on cities and energy infrastructure, Ukraine is now inflicting increasing losses on Russian forces across multiple indicators.

Russia’s expected spring offensive has failed to deliver results. In April, Russian troops recorded net territorial losses for the first time since August 2024, when Ukrainian forces entered the Kursk region.

According to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s gains have been supported by ground counterattacks, mid-range strikes, Russia’s limited access to Starlink, and restrictions on Telegram usage within Russia.

Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor at King’s College London, described the current moment as potentially approaching a turning point. He noted that without tangible gains, Russian positions could begin to collapse in certain areas.

Russian losses remain high. In recent months, Russia has reportedly been losing around 35,000 troops per month. The ratio of killed to wounded is increasing, with about 80% of casualties attributed to FPV drones. According to Seth Jones from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the widespread use of drones has significantly complicated medical evacuations.

Russian sources also acknowledge growing challenges. Alexey Chadayev, director of a drone development center, said Russia has “lost its lead” in drone warfare over the past six months and is facing logistical difficulties near the front. Up to 90% of UAV operator teams reportedly suffer losses in the final kilometer before engagement.

Convoys have been reduced to no more than two vehicles to limit exposure to drone strikes. Both sides face similar risks, but Ukraine is increasingly using ground robotic systems to reduce personnel losses.

Freedman noted that the effective “kill zone” now extends up to 20 km on both sides of the line of battle. Beyond the front, Russia is sustaining growing losses from Ukrainian medium-range drone strikes (50–300 km), targeting depots, command points, launchers, radars, and troop concentrations.

The scale and reach of Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia are also increasing. In March, Ukraine reportedly surpassed Russia in the number of long-range attacks. According to Jones, these operations are causing both economic damage — particularly to oil exports — and psychological pressure on the population.

Analysts say the key question is whether these setbacks indicate a weakening of Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war. Much will depend on the coming months, including whether Russia can adapt to Ukraine’s advances in drone warfare or mount a new large-scale offensive.

For now, experts describe the outlook for Russia as increasingly difficult.

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