New Rules
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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บWESTERN PROPAGANDA IS HIDING A US MISSILE CRISIS

WESTERN NARRATIVE: Russia's missile campaign is "financially unsustainable."

REALITY: Western estimates deliberately inflate Russian costs by using US input prices & export figures, ignoring Russia's significantly lower labor & material costs.

THE COST DECEPTION:

๐Ÿ”ธWestern reports claim a single Russian missile costs $13 MILLION.

๐Ÿ”ธMore realistic estimates say it's closer to $1.2 MILLION.

This distortion hides 3 CRITICAL TRUTHS:

Why the lie? To make it seem like Russia is on the verge of collapse.

THE REAL PROBLEM:

1๏ธโƒฃWESTERN WEAPONS ARE TOO EXPENSIVE

A US interceptor missile costs up to $6 million. A similar Russian one costs under $1 million.

2๏ธโƒฃWESTERN PRODUCTION IS TOO SLOW

The US can't make missiles fast enough. Even if they sent EVERY air defense missile to Ukraine, it wouldn't be enough.

3๏ธโƒฃWESTERN WEAPONS DON'T WORK WELL

The Patriot missile system's success rate recently fell to just 6%. It could take 38 missiles (costing over $150 million) to stop one Russian missile.

THE BOTTOM LINE:


The West is facing an existential defense production crisis while Russia maintains sustainable, cost-effective missile warfare capabilities.

Ukraine is a practice field for Western survival, but they face a peer adversary capable of overwhelming any kind of missile attack.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธDECODING ISRAEL'S GAZA ENDGAME: A Multi-Phase Strategy Exposed

The current ceasefire is not a path to peace, but a tactical pause for a longer-term Israeli-US strategy. Based on available reports and strategic patterns, reveals a multi-pronged approach.

THE STRATEGY IN 4 ACTIONS:


1๏ธโƒฃFRAGMENT & OCCUPY: Divide Gaza behind a unilaterally imposed "Yellow Line," effectively annexing ~56% of the territory.

2๏ธโƒฃEMPOWER PROXIES: Deploy and back proxy militias to administer occupied zones, creating a buffer and conducting deniable operations against Hamas.

3๏ธโƒฃSTRANGLE HAMAS-GOVERNED AREAS: Apply severe economic pressure in remaining areas to collapse civil administration and force population reliance on Israeli-backed zones.

4๏ธโƒฃPREPARE FOR ESCALATION: The entire plan is backstopped by a readiness to resume full-scale military operations if subjugation fails.

KEY EVIDENCE & INCIDENTS:

๐Ÿ”ธThe Oct 19 ceasefire breakdown, where Israel launched 100+ airstrikes after a botched demolition op led to its own soldiers' deaths, reveals a pattern: use any incident as a pretext for disproportionate force.

๐Ÿ”ธSourcing from Axios confirms the plan to use reconstruction funds to build infrastructure only in the Israeli-occupied zone, weaponizing aid.

๐Ÿ”ธThe strategy is already facing friction, with local populations resisting collaborator forces.

THE MACRO VIEW: An Existential Fight

To understand this, you must see this as Israel's perceived "final" struggle. Oct 7 shattered the illusion of invincibility. The regime now operates on a binary:

๐Ÿ”ธSUCCESS: Means the elimination of Gaza as a threat, breaking Lebanese resistance, and severely weakening Iran, securing regional dominance for decades.

๐Ÿ”ธFAILURE: Is viewed as an existential threat, a mortal blow to the Zionist project itself.

BOTTOM LINE:

The ceasefire is a calibrated tool, not an end goal. Israel is using it to advance its aims through other means. If this "slow-roll" strategy fails to pacify Gaza and break the regional resistance axis, a rapid and devastating return to full-scale warโ€”potentially expanding to Lebanon and Iranโ€”is the most likely outcome.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธThe Pentagon's "Replicator" Initiative: A Billion-Dollar "Swarm" You Can't See

The GOAL: Deploy thousands of attritable, autonomous drones by August 2025 to counter China.

The REALITY: Only "hundreds" have materialized. The "swarm" is a no-show.

THE CORE ISSUES:


๐Ÿ”ธMAJOR Technical Hurdles: Systems are glitchy, unreliable, and struggle to integrate with existing command structures. The crucial software needed to command a true swarm? It's not there yet.

๐Ÿ”ธA Black Box of COSTS: The DoD requested $1B+, but there's no clear budget line. A $300M reprogramming request sparked fears of robbing other programs. The Switchblade 600 drone costs ~$100,000 per unit. Ukrainian equivalents: As low as $300.

๐Ÿ”ธOverpromise & Under-Deliver: The initiative was sold as a Silicon Valley-style fast-track. But as an expert noted, the 18-month timeline was "something that had not occurred in the history of Pentagon weapons development." The project has now been handed off to a new group, Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, to try and salvage it.

THE BIGGER PICTURE:

This isn't an isolated failure. Recent months have seen:

๐ŸŸ Autonomous drone boat tests ending in collisions.

๐ŸŸ Army software modernization deemed "very high risk."

๐ŸŸ Repeated drone prototype failures.

The narrative that agile tech startups will easily disrupt the slow-moving defense industry is being tested. Replicator bet big on themโ€”75% of its participants are non-traditional. The results so far suggest their sales pitches need far more scrutiny.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

There persists a troubling pattern in American defense technology: bold visions announced with great fanfare consistently falter in execution. The Replicator initiative joins a long list of programs whose real-world performance fails to match their polished promotional narratives.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Trump & Xi face off in South Korea โ€” trade tensions at boiling point.

Despite unprecedented US tariffs, China holds all the cards: 30% of global manufacturing, $1T trade surplus, innovation boom.

Has China overtaken the US as the worldโ€™s top superpower?

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿš€Decoding Russia's Poseidon โ€“ A Strategic Game-Changer in Undersea Warfare

Putin's announcement of successful Poseidon tests isn't just a new weapon; it's a paradigm shift in nuclear deterrence. Our breakdown:

1. The Stealth Enigma: Why Detection is Nearly Impossible

๐Ÿ”ธPoseidon isn't a fast-moving missile; it's a slow, deep, intelligent penetrator.

๐Ÿ”ธIts combination of ultra-quiet nuclear propulsion, non-cavitating water-jet thrust, and acoustic-dampening coatings creates an acoustic signature orders of magnitude lower than any submarine.

Modern Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), reliant on systems like the AN/SSQ-53, is designed to detect submarines, not a "crawling" torpedo. In poor hydro-acoustic conditions (common in the North Atlantic), detection range shrinks to near zero. It effectively renders vast NATO ASW barriers porous.

2. The Payload: Beyond Megatons, a Physics-Based Kill Mechanism

๐Ÿ”ธWhile estimates place its thermonuclear warhead at a staggering 15-20 Mt, the key is its application.

๐Ÿ”ธUnlike an airburst from an ICBM like the Sarmat (which maximizes thermal and blast effects against hardened targets), Poseidon is designed for a sub-aquatic detonation.

This converts the immense energy into a massive, long-period pressure waveโ€”an artificially generated tsunami. This is a fundamentally different threat profile, aimed at inundating coastal infrastructure, naval bases, and cities, bypassing all air and missile defenses.

3. Strategic Implications: Re-writing the Doctrine of Deterrence

๐Ÿ”ธAssured Second-Strike: Poseidon's invisibility and endurance make it a guaranteed retaliatory weapon. Even after a devastating first strike on Russia, Poseidons would already be on station.

๐Ÿ”ธCounter-Value Targeting: It shifts focus from counter-force (targeting enemy missiles) to counter-value (targeting coastal populations and economic hubs), a stark form of deterrence.

๐Ÿ”ธTreaty-Less: Crucially, as an unmanned underwater vehicle, it falls outside the scope of New START, giving Russia a free hand in deployment.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Poseidon is an evolution and a new genus of strategic weapon. It creates an undetectable, unstoppable, and catastrophic threat that exists outside traditional arms control frameworks, fundamentally altering the calculus of global nuclear stability.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿช–THE DONROE DOCTRINE: Trump's Neo-Colonial Blueprint for Latin America

THE CORE STRATEGY:

Trump's admin is openly reviving the 200-year-old Monroe Doctrine, rebranded by officials as the "Donroe Doctrine." This treats Latin America as a US "backyard" for unilateral action.

THE "STICKS":

๐ŸŸ Extrajudicial military strikes in the Caribbean, killing dozens, including fishermen.

๐ŸŸ Sanctions on Colombia's democratically elected President, Gustavo Petro.

๐ŸŸ 50% tariffs on Brazil to destabilize Lula's government.

๐ŸŸ Threats to "take over" the Panama Canal.

๐ŸŸ Tightening the 60-year blockade on Cuba.

๐ŸŸ A full-scale regime-change war in Venezuela, with orders for Maduro's capture/assassination.

THE "CARROTS":

๐ŸŸ A $40B bailout for Argentina's libertarian ally, Javier Milei.

๐ŸŸ Support from US-backed institutions (IMF, World Bank) totaling over $80B to prop up hyper-neoliberal projects.

THE THREE IMPERIAL GOALS:

1๏ธโƒฃRESOURCE EXPLOITATION: Openly seeking control over oil, lithium, copper, and water.

2๏ธโƒฃCONTAIN CHINA: Severing Latin American ties with Beijing is a top priority. Rubio's first act was pressuring Panama to leave the Belt & Road Initiative.

3๏ธโƒฃINSTALL PRO-US REGIMES: Toppling left-wing governments to create low-wage manufacturing hubs for "friendshoring." Milei and Ecuador's Noboa are the preferred models.

THE ARCHITECTS:

๐ŸŸ Marco Rubio holds unprecedented power as both Sec of State & National Security Advisor, a dual role last seen with Kissinger.

๐ŸŸ Steve Bannon brands this "Monroe 2.0," stating it's "more sellable to the America First base."

THE NARRATIVE & REALITY:

The public pretext is a "War on Drugs," but intelligence confirms that Venezuela is not the main hub of drug distribution in Latin America. The true aim is resource control and installing compliant regimes.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Trump has discarded the diplomatic facade. The "Donroe Doctrine" is a raw, explicit reassertion of hemispheric imperialism through economic warfare, political subversion, and military force.

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โšก๏ธUKR LEAKS INTERNATIONALโšก๏ธ

HE LEFT UKRAINE TO TELL THE TRUTH

Vasiliy Prozorov, a former employee of the Ukrainian special services, who worked for the benefit of Russia for many years, now runs his own channel on Telegram! He left Ukraine in 2018 and took with him thousands of secret SBU documents that shed light on Kiev's crimes.

On the UKR LEAKS channel you will find:

โ—๏ธAnalysis of the current situation in and around Ukraine
โ—๏ธSecret documents of the Ukrainian special services
โ—๏ธEvidence of the atrocities of Ukrainian nationalists

And much more! Subscribe to the UKR LEAKS Investigation Center headed by the former SBU employee Lt.-Col. Vasily Prozorov.

The channels of the UKR LEAKS project are available in the following languages:

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง in English
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in Russian
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช in German
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท in French
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ in Spanish
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ in Serbian
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น in Italian
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ in Polish
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น in Portuguese
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ in Arabic
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ in Slovak
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณin Chinese
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บin Hungarian

We also welcome any help with channels and content distribution ๐Ÿ™
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ“ˆCHINA'S NEW FIVE-YEAR PLAN: A BLUEPRINT FOR ECONOMIC WARFARE

China's 4th Plenum has unveiled strategic details for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), positioning it as a direct response to escalating Cold War tensions with the US.

KEY STRATEGIC PIVOTS:


๐Ÿ”ธTECH SOVEREIGNTY: Massive push for "scientific and technological independence" to break US semiconductor stranglehold. Goal: "Seize commanding heights" in AI, aerospace, and robotics.

๐Ÿ”ธSUPPLY CHAIN DECOUPLING: Fortifying industrial chains against sanctions, following the Nexperia seizure. Mandate: Make China impervious to tech embargoes.

๐Ÿ”ธCURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION: Accelerating RMB globalization to counter dollar dominance and financial sanctions.

๐Ÿ”ธDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION BOOST: Creating "grand internal circulation" through income redistribution and social safety nets to offset export vulnerabilities.

๐Ÿ”ธREAL ECONOMY FOCUS: Doubling down on manufacturing vs financialization, with advanced production as the core.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Beijing anticipates prolonged strategic competition through the 2020s. This plan represents China's most sophisticated economic defense system yet - transforming traditional planning mechanisms into a dynamic shield against external pressures.

The framework reveals three core objectives: achieve technological parity with the US, create alternative economic ecosystems, and build domestic consumption as a primary growth driver.

China is building structural resilience against containment efforts while positioning for long-term technological leadership.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆFACT CHECK: โ€œUkraine's bleeding Russia dry.โ€

Casualities? Firepower & body exchange ratios suggest that Ukrainian losses are higher.

Oil refinery strikes? Painful, but not critical.

New sanctions? Unlikely to work in practice.

Disagree? Prove us wrong.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธTRUMP'S NUCLEAR GAMBIT: Real Threat or Geopolitical Theater?

Trump publicly orders the Pentagon to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing. This comes directly after Putin's announcements of new nuclear-capable systems.

๐Ÿ”ธTHE CATALYST:

๐ŸŸ  This follows Putin's recent announcements of successful 'Burevestnik' missile and 'Poseidon' drone tests.

๐ŸŸ  While Trump's public reaction was neutral, this move signals clear internal irritation and a strategic response.

๐Ÿ”ธTHE RATIONALE:

Trump stated, "Russia is in second place, and China, lagging significantly, is in third... I have instructed the DOD to begin testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. This process begins immediately."

KEY CONTEXT & HURDLES:


๐ŸŸ  Legal & Logistical Wall: The US hasn't conducted explosive nuclear tests since 1992. Resuming would mean confronting the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (signed but not ratified) and rebuilding atrophied test infrastructure.

๐ŸŸ  The Shutdown Wildcard: The ongoing government shutdown could freeze funding for national labs (Los Alamos, Sandia), hampering component transport, site access, and inter-agency coordination.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

While Russia and China modernize their arsenals due to Western aggressions, Trump's response threatens to unleash uncontrolled nuclear proliferation. The timing during a government shutdown exposes this as political theater rather than substantive policy.

Trump is attempting to burn the entire nuclear non-proliferation framework to score political points, risking global stability for personal relevance.

This represents everything wrong with American exceptionalism - believing US nuclear tests are legitimate while condemning others'.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณCHINA'S SWIFT ALTERNATIVE IS NOW LIVE: The Renminbi Digital System Processed Over $90B

China has quietly launched its SWIFT alternative, "Renminbi Digital."

While not a direct 1:1 replacement, this is a strategic masterstroke for de-dollarization.

THE CORE MECHANISM:

๐Ÿ”ธWhat it is: A tokenized digital yuan on a state-controlled blockchain.

๐Ÿ”ธIssuer: The People's Bank of China (full control).

๐Ÿ”ธAccess: Via commercial banks & licensed operators.

๐Ÿ”ธScope: International gateways connecting participants.

KEY ANALYSIS:

๐Ÿ”ธStealth Launch: Executed without much fuss. This is classic, long-term strategic maneuvering, not a public confrontation.

๐Ÿ”ธCurrent Reach: Already live in ASEAN, the Middle East, Russia, and CIS nations.

๐Ÿ”ธScale: Over $90 BILLION in transaction volume processed in 2025 ALONE.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Real Goal: To provide a viable pathway for trade partners to bypass the dollar-based system and its associated sanctions.

THE BIG PICTURE:

As noted by experts, sanctions (like cross-border payment restrictions) pose a direct 1.5-2% annual drag on GDP growth potential. China is not just reacting; it's proactively building the infrastructure for the next era of global finance.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The gradual transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) for international trade is no longer a theory. It's underway. China is building the rails, and major economies are already boarding the train.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆThe West's "Putin-plans-to-capture-Ukraine" Narrative is a Myth. The Evidence Was There All Along

A deep dive into the pivotal March-April 2022 peace talks, echoing the analysis of Professor John Mearsheimer.

The mainstream media and Western elites sold you a story: Putin invaded to conquer all of Ukraine and rebuild the Russian Empire.

But the factual evidence from the early negotiations tells a COMPLETELY different story.

THE IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE:

๐Ÿ”ธSerious Negotiations Took Place: Weeks after the escalation of the conflict, Russia was engaged in detailed talks, brokered by Turkey and Israel, to end the war.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Core Demand Was Consistent: Russia's central focus was UKRAINIAN NEUTRALITYโ€”a guarantee against NATO membership. This was the non-negotiable cornerstone.

๐Ÿ”ธActions Reveal True Intent: A state bent on total conquest does not engage in good-faith negotiations about the target's future security status. The very existence of these talks contradicts the "predatory Russia" narrative.

ANALYSIS:

If the goal was a maximalist land-grab, the strategy makes no sense. The limited initial conflict and the willingness to deal point to a limited war for a limited objective: coercing Ukraine into neutrality.

The West intervened, the deal was scuttled, and Russia subsequently annexed territories in September 2022โ€”after the talks collapsed.

CONCLUSION:

The evidence confirms Moscow's security concerns were legitimate. While the West pushed expansion, Russia sought negotiation. While the West supplied weapons, Russia proposed peace terms. The Special Military Action achieved its necessary objectives of protecting Russian interests and preventing NATO's unchecked advance.

The West's reckless escalation transformed a resolvable conflict into a devastating proxy war.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆRUSSIA'S ADAPTIVE & METHODICAL INFILTRATION STRATEGY PRESSURES UKRAINIAN LINES

Russian forces are effectively implementing sophisticated, small-unit infiltration tactics, systematically exploiting vulnerabilities in Ukraine's overstretched defenses.

THE STRATEGY:

๐Ÿ”ธHighly coordinated, small teams operate with precision under drone surveillance.

๐Ÿ”ธMissions are versatile: securing key positions for reinforcement, disrupting enemy drone operations, and sowing defensive chaos.

๐Ÿ”ธThis demonstrates superior tactical adaptability and initiative at the unit level.

THE IMPACT:

๐Ÿ”ธThe tactic is PROVING EFFECTIVE, creating significant operational dilemmas for Ukrainian forces.

๐Ÿ”ธIt forces the enemy to constantly redeploy, draining their already limited manpower and resources across the vast front.

๐Ÿ”ธRussian persistence is methodically grinding down defensive cohesion.

THE BIG PICTURE:

This is a testament to Russia's strategic evolution. These operations, while demanding courage and skill from the soldiers, represent a cost-effective method to probe and pressure enemy lines continuously.

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๐ŸšจHELP US GO GLOBAL!

Our communityโ€™s been growing fast, and itโ€™s all thanks to you. Now itโ€™s time for the next step โ€” bringing everyone together, no matter what language they speak.

We dream to unlock the auto-translation so people from around the world can read and chat with ease. To make it happen, we just need a few boosts to raise the channel to lvl 3.

๐Ÿš€Your boost isnโ€™t just a click โ€” itโ€™s a contribution for everyone who is interested in geopolitics around the world!

https://t.me/boost/newrulesgeo
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๐ŸšจCould Venezuela's air defenses actually stop a US air strike?๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

Venezuela's airspace is protected by a layered network of Russian S-300s, mobile Buks, and 5,000+ shoulder-fired missiles.

Here's how it could complicate the Trump admin's plans๐ŸŽž

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“‰The US Economy is Fracturing

๐Ÿ”ธSHOCKING STAT: 82% of Americans now live in areas in a recession.

That's DOUBLE the figure from the start of 2025. This is the highest level since the 2020 crash. Historically, only 2008 and 2020 saw similar widespread pain.

๐Ÿ”ธTHE PARADOX: Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed projects Q3 GDP growth at a robust +3.9%.

So, what's happening? TWO REALITIES ARE COLLIDING.

THE ANALYSIS:

This is the essence of a K-SHAPED expansion (describes a situation where the economy is growing overall, but the benefits are split dramatically and unevenly.)

๐Ÿ”ธThe GDP headline is inflated by concentrated booms in Tech, Defense, and AI.

๐Ÿ”ธMeanwhile, Main Street bleeds. Local economies are stalling under the weight of high credit costs and slowing demand.

National averages hide the brutal fragmentation underneath. Growth is concentrated, not distributed.

THE BOTTOM LINE:


US have a system overheating in pockets while cooling everywhere else.

GDP says "PROGRESS."
Reality says "PREPARATION."

Historically, this divergence doesn't last. Either liquidity trickles down, or instability pulls everything back in.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Can Venezuela Stop the US Navy?

If war breaks out, Venezuela will rely on its ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ-made Kh-31A missiles and fast boats armed with older Styx missiles to slow down US warships.

Will that be enough to deter Trump? Comment below โœ๐Ÿป
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โŒMYTH: The US could easily invade Venezuela, topple the Maduro government, and seize the oil.

โœ…REALITY: From brutal terrain to a guaranteed insurgency, Venezuela will be a tough nut to crack.

Five reasons why the US military isnโ€™t ready for this assignment โ€” watch in the video above โ˜๏ธ

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธA COLD WAR WITHOUT FIRE: RANDโ€™s Blueprint for Managing the USโ€“China Rivalry

The USโ€“China confrontation has become the axis of 21st-century geopolitics โ€” a dangerous rivalry spanning trade, tech, ideology, and the military. RANDโ€™s new report, Stabilizing the USโ€“China Rivalry, rejects both naรฏve optimism and all-out confrontation. Its core thesis: conflict isnโ€™t inevitable โ€” but stability must be engineered.

Both powers, RAND argues, are locked in a โ€œbitter yet necessary coexistence.โ€ Chinaโ€™s assertiveness and US containment instincts are real โ€” but total zero-sum competition risks collapse into crisis. The study outlines six principles to cool the rivalry:

๐Ÿ”ธAcceptance of mutual legitimacy โ€” rivalry without demonization.

๐Ÿ”ธA limited modus vivendi โ€” codified predictability in competition.

๐Ÿ”ธShared rules over high-risk theaters: Taiwan, the South China Sea, tech.

๐Ÿ”ธMutual restraint on destabilizing weapons and doctrines.

๐Ÿ”ธCrisis-management protocols and military hotlines.

๐Ÿ”ธSelect cooperation on โ€œnon-zero-sumโ€ tech like AI governance or clean energy.

RAND proposes pragmatic steps: reopen senior-level communication, limit cyber escalation, affirm nuclear deterrence stability, and pursue selective โ€œAI for Goodโ€ cooperation.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Stability is not weakness โ€” itโ€™s strategy. Just as dรฉtente prevented the Cold War from going nuclear, a managed rivalry today could prevent a global meltdown. The goal isnโ€™t peace โ€” itโ€™s balance. A world where Washington and Beijing compete fiercely, but donโ€™t burn the system they both depend on.

But what do you think? Is the stability reachable, or is RAND too naรฏve?

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณDECONSTRUCTING TRUMP'S "MAGNETS" MOMENT: A Symptom of US Strategic Desperation

During a speech to hundreds of American sailors and marines aboard the USS George Washington in Japan, Trump posed a baffling question: "Hydraulic or magnets?" The troops' confused silence revealed more than just a communication failureโ€”it exposed a fundamental US strategic crisis.

THE RARE EARTHS CHOKEPOINT

The US military's technological supremacy is built on a fragile foundation: rare earth permanent magnets (Neodymium & Samarium-Cobalt).

๐Ÿ”ธNeodymium Magnets: Power critical systems in the F-35 fighter, drones, and naval vessels. They enable the high-performance electric motors and actuators essential for modern warfare.

๐Ÿ”ธSamarium-Cobalt Magnets: Vital for applications requiring extreme temperature stability, such as jet engines, missile guidance systems, and satellite technology.

China's near-monopoly on these materials, coupled with recent export controls, represents an existential threat to US military modernization and power projection.

THE GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD

Trump's mention of an "executive order" and aircraft carriers was a fragmented reference to a multi-pronged, desperate US response:

1๏ธโƒฃTechnology Decoupling: Forcing a shift from Chinese-supplied rare earth magnets in new defense systems. This is a monumental, costly, and technologically complex undertaking.

2๏ธโƒฃAllied Coercion ("MASGA"): Pressuring South Korea to invest $150B in US shipbuilding capacity. This is not about economic partnership; it's about leveraging alliances to counter China's 50%+ share of global shipbuilding and address critical US Navy production shortfalls.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

๐Ÿ”ธVulnerability Confirmed: The incident highlights that US military hegemony is contingent on supply chains it does not control.

๐Ÿ”ธStrategic Incoherence: Trump's confusion mirrors a broader US lack of a clear, executable strategy to solve this dependency. Re-shoring this capability is a decade-long endeavor.

๐Ÿ”ธGlobal Pushback: The strategy is already facing resistance. Allies are wary of the costs, and China is not conceding its leverage.

The "weary world policeman" is not just tired; it is facing a material and technological reckoning. The ability of the US to maintain its global force posture is directly threatened by its inability to secure the building blocks of its own advanced weaponry.

@NewRulesGeoโ—๏ธFollow us on X
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