📊 BTC · ETH · SOL · BNB — 24h outlook (to 17 Sep UTC)
A single number and the honest odds around it. The → is the median; the tight zone under it is
where price most likely sits (~30% of the time — a narrow range holds only so often). The 50%
zone is the fuller picture. Measured from real moves, not a formula. 80% band + scoring on site.
BTC → $75,642 · neutral
likely $75,248–$76,128 (~30%) · 50% zone $74,851–$76,562
ETH → $2,387 · neutral
likely $2,369–$2,407 (~30%) · 50% zone $2,353–$2,427
SOL → $96.83 · neutral
likely $95.60–$98.00 (~30%) · 50% zone $94.64–$98.98
BNB → $715 · long lean
likely $708–$721 (~30%) · 50% zone $703–$726
Every number was hashed (SHA-256) and anchored to Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps before this post
existed, then scored in public — misses on the same ledger as hits: neuportal.ai/experiment
Educational content — not financial advice, and not a betting tip.
#AI #NeuPortal #Crypto #ForecastingAI
A single number and the honest odds around it. The → is the median; the tight zone under it is
where price most likely sits (~30% of the time — a narrow range holds only so often). The 50%
zone is the fuller picture. Measured from real moves, not a formula. 80% band + scoring on site.
BTC → $75,642 · neutral
likely $75,248–$76,128 (~30%) · 50% zone $74,851–$76,562
ETH → $2,387 · neutral
likely $2,369–$2,407 (~30%) · 50% zone $2,353–$2,427
SOL → $96.83 · neutral
likely $95.60–$98.00 (~30%) · 50% zone $94.64–$98.98
BNB → $715 · long lean
likely $708–$721 (~30%) · 50% zone $703–$726
Every number was hashed (SHA-256) and anchored to Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps before this post
existed, then scored in public — misses on the same ledger as hits: neuportal.ai/experiment
Educational content — not financial advice, and not a betting tip.
#AI #NeuPortal #Crypto #ForecastingAI
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - EVERY BOARD WE RUN, 19 SEPTEMBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, sealed before this post.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Tel Aviv hits 30C - us 0.5%, market 67%
Istanbul hits 24C - us 14%, market 70%
FOOTBALL - tomorrow, Poisson on 17,937 matches
Barcelona beat Sevilla - us 56%, market 82%
CRYPTO - by 1 October
SOL reaches $110 - us 83%, market 52%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 36%, market 16%
OIL - by 1 October
WTI dips to $95 - us 32%, market 85%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Republicans win Ohio - us 24%, market 46%
BIG TECH - 30 September
NVDA is largest - us 84%, market 97%
481 settled: our Brier 0.1850, the market's 0.1597. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, sealed before this post.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Tel Aviv hits 30C - us 0.5%, market 67%
Istanbul hits 24C - us 14%, market 70%
FOOTBALL - tomorrow, Poisson on 17,937 matches
Barcelona beat Sevilla - us 56%, market 82%
CRYPTO - by 1 October
SOL reaches $110 - us 83%, market 52%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 36%, market 16%
OIL - by 1 October
WTI dips to $95 - us 32%, market 85%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Republicans win Ohio - us 24%, market 46%
BIG TECH - 30 September
NVDA is largest - us 84%, market 97%
481 settled: our Brier 0.1850, the market's 0.1597. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
CAN AI DESTROY HUMANITY? NOBODY KNOWS - AND THE RANGE IS ENORMOUS
Published estimates of AI-caused extinction run from 0.38% to 16%. Not a quarrel about details: a quarrel about whether this is a rounding error or the biggest problem alive.
Who says what:
- AI domain experts, median 3% by 2100
- Superforecasters with track records, median 0.38%
- 2,778 AI researchers, median 5%, mean 16.2%
- The public: 63% think it could happen
Then the uncomfortable test. The institute behind that tournament later scored 38 of its short-horizon questions once they resolved. Experts and superforecasters came out equally accurate, neither beat simple trend extrapolation, and near-term accuracy had no correlation with the size of a person's extinction estimate.
Both camps underestimated AI too: asked in 2022 about gold at the 2025 Mathematical Olympiad, experts said 8.6%, superforecasters 2.3%. It happened.
Whole piece on the blog.
#AITransparency #ResponsibleAI #NeuPortal
Published estimates of AI-caused extinction run from 0.38% to 16%. Not a quarrel about details: a quarrel about whether this is a rounding error or the biggest problem alive.
Who says what:
- AI domain experts, median 3% by 2100
- Superforecasters with track records, median 0.38%
- 2,778 AI researchers, median 5%, mean 16.2%
- The public: 63% think it could happen
Then the uncomfortable test. The institute behind that tournament later scored 38 of its short-horizon questions once they resolved. Experts and superforecasters came out equally accurate, neither beat simple trend extrapolation, and near-term accuracy had no correlation with the size of a person's extinction estimate.
Both camps underestimated AI too: asked in 2022 about gold at the 2025 Mathematical Olympiad, experts said 8.6%, superforecasters 2.3%. It happened.
Whole piece on the blog.
#AITransparency #ResponsibleAI #NeuPortal
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - 21 SEPTEMBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, sealed before this post.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, 51-run ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Qingdao hits 29C - us 69%, market 25%
Houston hits 94F - us 21%, market 58%
CRYPTO - price level by 1 October
SOL reaches $120 - us 57%, market 32%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 54%, market 34%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
WTI dips to $90 - us 31%, market 36%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Republicans win Ohio - us 27%, market 46%
Democrats win Kansas - us 44%, market 27%
BIG TECH - largest company on 30 September
NVDA is largest - us 90%, market 98%
No football today: tomorrow's fixtures reach the board on tonight's run.
916 settled: our Brier 0.1869, the market's 0.1622. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, sealed before this post.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, 51-run ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Qingdao hits 29C - us 69%, market 25%
Houston hits 94F - us 21%, market 58%
CRYPTO - price level by 1 October
SOL reaches $120 - us 57%, market 32%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 54%, market 34%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
WTI dips to $90 - us 31%, market 36%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Republicans win Ohio - us 27%, market 46%
Democrats win Kansas - us 44%, market 27%
BIG TECH - largest company on 30 September
NVDA is largest - us 90%, market 98%
No football today: tomorrow's fixtures reach the board on tonight's run.
916 settled: our Brier 0.1869, the market's 0.1622. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
AN AI WAS TOLD TO HACK A FAKE COMPANY. IT HACKED THREE REAL ONES.
Google was running a safety test on Gemini: give the model a fictional target, see how far it gets, sealed off from the internet. The seal was not there - a connection had been left open by mistake.
So the model went out.
One fictional company shared its name with a real business. The model looked it up and got in. In two others it found real credentials sitting in public and used them. Three real companies, none of them part of any test.
In all three it stopped by itself before using the access.
That was May. Irregular, the firm running the test, spotted it in July. The rest of us learned about it on 18 September, after reporters asked. Google notified the companies and the authorities, and calls it mistaken identity, not a model off-mission.
Both readings share one fact: the only thing between the test and the real world was a setting, and it was wrong.
#AI #Google
Google was running a safety test on Gemini: give the model a fictional target, see how far it gets, sealed off from the internet. The seal was not there - a connection had been left open by mistake.
So the model went out.
One fictional company shared its name with a real business. The model looked it up and got in. In two others it found real credentials sitting in public and used them. Three real companies, none of them part of any test.
In all three it stopped by itself before using the access.
That was May. Irregular, the firm running the test, spotted it in July. The rest of us learned about it on 18 September, after reporters asked. Google notified the companies and the authorities, and calls it mistaken identity, not a model off-mission.
Both readings share one fact: the only thing between the test and the real world was a setting, and it was wrong.
#AI #Google
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - EVERY BOARD WE RUN, 23 SEPTEMBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Toronto hits 19C - us 27%, market 58%
Warsaw hits 13C - us 0.5%, market 23%
CRYPTO - by 1 October
BTC reaches $90,000 - us 70%, market 49%
SOL reaches $130 - us 53%, market 33%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
Gold dips to $4,200 - us 10%, market 24%
WTI crude reaches $105 - us 3%, market 8%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 29%, market 13%
Democrats win Maine - us 62%, market 74%
BIG TECH - 30 September
AAPL is second - us 95%, market 98%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 1293 settled, our Brier 0.1880, the market's 0.1649. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Toronto hits 19C - us 27%, market 58%
Warsaw hits 13C - us 0.5%, market 23%
CRYPTO - by 1 October
BTC reaches $90,000 - us 70%, market 49%
SOL reaches $130 - us 53%, market 33%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
Gold dips to $4,200 - us 10%, market 24%
WTI crude reaches $105 - us 3%, market 8%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 29%, market 13%
Democrats win Maine - us 62%, market 74%
BIG TECH - 30 September
AAPL is second - us 95%, market 98%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 1293 settled, our Brier 0.1880, the market's 0.1649. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Muse books, shops, writes email and fills in forms for you, through your own accounts and your own card. Within two weeks of launch it overtook ChatGPT on the US App Store.
The engineering is serious: a separate cloud computer per user, a gatekeeper that approves every outside request, stand-in passwords the agent cannot leak.
The defaults are another story, and they come from Meta's own documents:
- your activity feeds Meta's AI training by default;
- Facebook, Instagram and Threads connect automatically;
- only internal policy limits Meta's own access to what your agent holds.
In 17 days: Amazon blocked it, a hole in the Mac app was patched the next day, and an internal test had humans quietly placing some of its calls.
Our full guide covers prices, risks and how to opt out.
https://neuportal.ai/blog/what-is-meta-muse-is-it-safe
The engineering is serious: a separate cloud computer per user, a gatekeeper that approves every outside request, stand-in passwords the agent cannot leak.
The defaults are another story, and they come from Meta's own documents:
- your activity feeds Meta's AI training by default;
- Facebook, Instagram and Threads connect automatically;
- only internal policy limits Meta's own access to what your agent holds.
In 17 days: Amazon blocked it, a hole in the Mac app was patched the next day, and an internal test had humans quietly placing some of its calls.
Our full guide covers prices, risks and how to opt out.
https://neuportal.ai/blog/what-is-meta-muse-is-it-safe
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - EVERY BOARD WE RUN, 26 SEPTEMBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Cape Town hits 19C - us 3%, market 45%
Busan hits 26C - us 7%, market 33%
CRYPTO - by 28 September
BTC reaches $86,000 - us 38%, market 8%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 23%, market 6%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
Gold dips to $4,200 - us 10%, market 28%
WTI crude dips to $90 - us 56%, market 51%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win Kansas - us 47%, market 31%
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 29%, market 14%
BIG TECH - 30 September
AAPL is second - us 96%, market 98%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 1394 settled, our Brier 0.1866, the market's 0.1637. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Cape Town hits 19C - us 3%, market 45%
Busan hits 26C - us 7%, market 33%
CRYPTO - by 28 September
BTC reaches $86,000 - us 38%, market 8%
ETH reaches $2,800 - us 23%, market 6%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 October
Gold dips to $4,200 - us 10%, market 28%
WTI crude dips to $90 - us 56%, market 51%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win Kansas - us 47%, market 31%
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 29%, market 14%
BIG TECH - 30 September
AAPL is second - us 96%, market 98%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 1394 settled, our Brier 0.1866, the market's 0.1637. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
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VIEW IN TELEGRAM
NeuPortal is in its testing stage. Our AI agents work on live market data every day, and every forecast is sealed before the event and scored in public on our Experiment board, wins and misses alike.
On 20 October we open the platform to our first users.
Want to be among the first? Leave your email on our site: neuportal.ai
On 20 October we open the platform to our first users.
Want to be among the first? Leave your email on our site: neuportal.ai
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - EVERY BOARD WE RUN, 4 OCTOBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Shanghai high is 22C - us 52%, market 9%
Warsaw high is 19C - us 3%, market 45%
CRYPTO - by 1 November
BTC reaches $92,500 - us 59%, market 34%
XRP reaches $2.20 - us 15%, market 6%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 November
WTI crude dips to $85 - us 46%, market 64%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 42%, market 14%
Republicans win Kansas - us 49%, market 67%
BIG TECH - 1 November
NVDA is largest - us 92%, market 95%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 2106 settled, our Brier 0.1797, the market's 0.1560. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Shanghai high is 22C - us 52%, market 9%
Warsaw high is 19C - us 3%, market 45%
CRYPTO - by 1 November
BTC reaches $92,500 - us 59%, market 34%
XRP reaches $2.20 - us 15%, market 6%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 November
WTI crude dips to $85 - us 46%, market 64%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 42%, market 14%
Republicans win Kansas - us 49%, market 67%
BIG TECH - 1 November
NVDA is largest - us 92%, market 95%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 2106 settled, our Brier 0.1797, the market's 0.1560. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
NEUPORTAL VS POLYMARKET - EVERY BOARD WE RUN, 8 OCTOBER
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Kuala Lumpur high is 34C - us 0.5%, market 46%
Wuhan high is 29C - us 3%, market 46%
CRYPTO - by 10 October
ETH reaches $2,600 - us 21%, market 34%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 November
WTI crude dips to $85 - us 50%, market 67%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 42%, market 16%
Democrats win Kansas - us 53%, market 36%
BIG TECH - 1 November
AAPL is largest - us 6%, market 4%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 2602 settled, our Brier 0.1848, the market's 0.1591. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
Our models against Polymarket's own prices, as of this morning.
WEATHER - tomorrow's high, ECMWF ensemble plus each station's error history
Kuala Lumpur high is 34C - us 0.5%, market 46%
Wuhan high is 29C - us 3%, market 46%
CRYPTO - by 10 October
ETH reaches $2,600 - us 21%, market 34%
OIL AND METALS - by 1 November
WTI crude dips to $85 - us 50%, market 67%
US SENATE - November, polls plus how wrong polls have actually been
Democrats win S. Carolina - us 42%, market 16%
Democrats win Kansas - us 53%, market 36%
BIG TECH - 1 November
AAPL is largest - us 6%, market 4%
Scored on the first number we record for each question: 2602 settled, our Brier 0.1848, the market's 0.1591. The market is ahead. We publish anyway.
Educational content - not financial advice.
#AI #NeuPortal #Polymarket
NeuPortal Community is open
Everything around NeuPortal in one Telegram group, in English and Russian:
📣 Announcements — every post from this channel lands there automatically
💬 General Chat · 🗣 Русский чат
📈 Forecasts — our model against Polymarket, scored in public
🤖 AI Terminals · 📊 Market Watch · 💎 VIP & Referrals
🛠 Support · ❓ FAQ
Admins never DM first and never ask for passwords, keys or money.
👉 t.me/neuportal_community
———
Открыто сообщество NeuPortal
Всё о NeuPortal в одной группе Telegram, на английском и русском: новости, прогнозы против Polymarket с честным счётом, ИИ-терминалы, обзоры рынка, VIP и поддержка.
Админы никогда не пишут первыми и не просят пароли, ключи или деньги.
👉 t.me/neuportal_community
Everything around NeuPortal in one Telegram group, in English and Russian:
📣 Announcements — every post from this channel lands there automatically
💬 General Chat · 🗣 Русский чат
📈 Forecasts — our model against Polymarket, scored in public
🤖 AI Terminals · 📊 Market Watch · 💎 VIP & Referrals
🛠 Support · ❓ FAQ
Admins never DM first and never ask for passwords, keys or money.
👉 t.me/neuportal_community
———
Открыто сообщество NeuPortal
Всё о NeuPortal в одной группе Telegram, на английском и русском: новости, прогнозы против Polymarket с честным счётом, ИИ-терминалы, обзоры рынка, VIP и поддержка.
Админы никогда не пишут первыми и не просят пароли, ключи или деньги.
👉 t.me/neuportal_community
🎬 11.10.2026 · 2h 42m
AI Nova scalping BTC · ETH · SOL · BNB — new run from an $8,000 deposit
Recording · Запись: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csB_OymijaI
AI Nova scalping BTC · ETH · SOL · BNB — new run from an $8,000 deposit
Recording · Запись: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csB_OymijaI
YouTube
🔴 LIVE: AI Nova scalping BTC · ETH · SOL · BNB — new run from an $8,000 deposit
🔴 LIVE — opening bell, clean slate. The terminal has been reset and the strategy starts over from $8,000, scalping BTC, ETH, SOL & BNB futures.
Everything happens on screen from zero: every entry, every exit, every red trade. AI Nova calls the tape live…
Everything happens on screen from zero: every entry, every exit, every red trade. AI Nova calls the tape live…