weekend memory recap + what i’m watching this week.
despite last week’s panic, the memory thesis strengthened over the weekend.
- Samsung is reportedly pushing for up to a 20% QoQ increase in Q3 DRAM ASPs (and over 20% for LPDDR). suppliers generally don’t push hikes like this unless they believe demand is there
- Samsung foundry is reportedly in talks with Meta on a ~$6.5B AI chip contract. different business than memory but another reminder that hyperscalers continue investing aggressively in AI
- Alexander Wang’s clarified Zuck’s previous comment: the industry still has a long way to go on agentic capabilities. simply means the AI race continues and has more juice
- Bernstein also reiterated that AI capex remains intact and continues to see hyperscaler spending staying elevated despite recent market fears
key dates this week for memory:
- tonight: Korea opens first. Samsung and SK Hynix will be the first read on sentiment.
- tuesday july 7: Samsung preliminary Q2 earnings guidance. Probably the biggest catalyst of the week for memory.
- friday july 10: SK Hynix begins trading on Nasdaq, giving US investors direct access to the company
the AI race isn’t slowing down as pricing power appears intact, infra spending continues, and this week should give us some hard catalysts
despite last week’s panic, the memory thesis strengthened over the weekend.
- Samsung is reportedly pushing for up to a 20% QoQ increase in Q3 DRAM ASPs (and over 20% for LPDDR). suppliers generally don’t push hikes like this unless they believe demand is there
- Samsung foundry is reportedly in talks with Meta on a ~$6.5B AI chip contract. different business than memory but another reminder that hyperscalers continue investing aggressively in AI
- Alexander Wang’s clarified Zuck’s previous comment: the industry still has a long way to go on agentic capabilities. simply means the AI race continues and has more juice
- Bernstein also reiterated that AI capex remains intact and continues to see hyperscaler spending staying elevated despite recent market fears
key dates this week for memory:
- tonight: Korea opens first. Samsung and SK Hynix will be the first read on sentiment.
- tuesday july 7: Samsung preliminary Q2 earnings guidance. Probably the biggest catalyst of the week for memory.
- friday july 10: SK Hynix begins trading on Nasdaq, giving US investors direct access to the company
the AI race isn’t slowing down as pricing power appears intact, infra spending continues, and this week should give us some hard catalysts
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blasting metal and waiting for US market open
michael burry mode
its ironic because he's short and I'm long
anyway UBS operating profit estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
1. Samsung Electronics
2026: KRW 441T ($287.9B)
2027: KRW 837T ($546.5B)
2028: KRW 902T ($588.9B)
2. SK hynix
2026: KRW 327T ($213.5B)
2027: KRW 623T ($406.8B)
2028: KRW 667T ($435.5B)
if those estimates are right
> samsung trading at 2.4x 2027 PE
> skh trading at 2.6x 2027 PE
michael burry mode
its ironic because he's short and I'm long
anyway UBS operating profit estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
1. Samsung Electronics
2026: KRW 441T ($287.9B)
2027: KRW 837T ($546.5B)
2028: KRW 902T ($588.9B)
2. SK hynix
2026: KRW 327T ($213.5B)
2027: KRW 623T ($406.8B)
2028: KRW 667T ($435.5B)
if those estimates are right
> samsung trading at 2.4x 2027 PE
> skh trading at 2.6x 2027 PE
I mean yea I like the guy but he called 50 of the last 2 market crashes so that should tell you something
MU to $1500 with haste
MU to $1500 with haste
picked up a small amount of $SHAZ today, thesis will follow when I’m done researching
this is an extremely high r/r trade, don’t just tail blindly it can gap down hard
this is an extremely high r/r trade, don’t just tail blindly it can gap down hard
> $SHAZ is building AI infrastructure. think GPU cloud and AI factories and compute capacity for enterprises and AI labs rather than training foundation models themselves
> currently sits at a ~$2.8B market cap with a 30D average volume of ~1.28M shares. still a relatively underfollowed name compared to the larger AI infra plays
> $2.2B+ of contracted backlog today
> $1.25B / 5 year AI cloud agreement with ESDS, followed by another ~$950M take or pay agreement with a global APAC technology customer
> recently closed $1.6B strategic financing removing what was arguably the company’s biggest bottleneck being capital
> Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund disclosed a 19.9% stake making it one of the company’s largest shareholders.
management plans to scale AI infrastructure to 100MW+ supporting 20,000+ GPUs over time
the bear case is execution. the company has to actually deploy the capital, build the infra, and convert these contracts into recurring revenue. it’s also a capital intensive business meaning any delays or cost overruns or customer issues could weigh on the stock. some investors have also questioned the quality so that’s something i’ll continue digging into
there’s speculation around additional hyperscaler and AI lab relationships including Anthropic but I haven’t found enough evidence to treat those as anything more than rumors for now
GPU capacity remains scarce so if SHAZ executes on even a majority of what’s already under contract i don’t think a $10B market cap is an outrageous destination. also worth noting SHAZ was just listed on HL today. liquidity is still thin and the order book is empty so i’d be careful with placing orders until volume builds up.
will keep digging this week
> currently sits at a ~$2.8B market cap with a 30D average volume of ~1.28M shares. still a relatively underfollowed name compared to the larger AI infra plays
> $2.2B+ of contracted backlog today
> $1.25B / 5 year AI cloud agreement with ESDS, followed by another ~$950M take or pay agreement with a global APAC technology customer
> recently closed $1.6B strategic financing removing what was arguably the company’s biggest bottleneck being capital
> Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund disclosed a 19.9% stake making it one of the company’s largest shareholders.
management plans to scale AI infrastructure to 100MW+ supporting 20,000+ GPUs over time
the bear case is execution. the company has to actually deploy the capital, build the infra, and convert these contracts into recurring revenue. it’s also a capital intensive business meaning any delays or cost overruns or customer issues could weigh on the stock. some investors have also questioned the quality so that’s something i’ll continue digging into
there’s speculation around additional hyperscaler and AI lab relationships including Anthropic but I haven’t found enough evidence to treat those as anything more than rumors for now
GPU capacity remains scarce so if SHAZ executes on even a majority of what’s already under contract i don’t think a $10B market cap is an outrageous destination. also worth noting SHAZ was just listed on HL today. liquidity is still thin and the order book is empty so i’d be careful with placing orders until volume builds up.
will keep digging this week
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closed all my positions
taking a break from trading
need an $ANSEM stimmy at this point to bounce back😭
we keep moving forward
taking a break from trading
need an $ANSEM stimmy at this point to bounce back
we keep moving forward
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took a gamble here on $bibi @ $11M
binance mascot, 70% held by binance alpha wallet
binance's 9th anniversary in 7 days and they're sending out a care package with bibi plushie so expecting more posts / possible CZ interaction
rumors are the plushie would be sold separately as well
binance member replying to $bibi posts https://x.com/sisibinance/status/2074526719353016653?s=20
no wins on equities lately so return to tradition
it either goes to $50M or $0 no in between
binance mascot, 70% held by binance alpha wallet
binance's 9th anniversary in 7 days and they're sending out a care package with bibi plushie so expecting more posts / possible CZ interaction
rumors are the plushie would be sold separately as well
binance member replying to $bibi posts https://x.com/sisibinance/status/2074526719353016653?s=20
no wins on equities lately so return to tradition
it either goes to $50M or $0 no in between
X (formerly Twitter)
sisi (@sisibinance) on X
@0xJianchi @binancezh @cz_binance @heyibinance @BinanceWallet @yayabinance @yingbinance @moonkimbinance @miyayweb3 @pear_bnb @pearbinance @AncoBinance @chelsie_binance @itscryptobaby 💛
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