This is the first time in my 8-year Web3 journey that I feel like we’re lacking a clear direction or thesis.

In the past, we always had dominant narratives to rally around, with a few trends catching up in the background. Now, attention feels completely scattered.

I notice this uncertainty when reading reports from leading Web3 research firms: scattered topics, if/when-based conclusions, fewer deep dives, and more reports focusing on the state of specific sectors.

Nothing groundbreaking.

You might argue: “We’re building the infrastructure for the next generation of consumer, AI, social, and gaming apps. This stage is necessary, and it’s fine.”

That’s true—to an extent.

Look at gaming chains. The competition is fierce, but we have a limited number of promising games emerging. Many teams are betting on high-load applications, but this won’t pay off for most, even if/when gaming becomes the next big thing.

Chain abstraction? Another service-focused development meant to lower barriers for the next wave of apps—but no one really knows what those apps will be.

All these efforts are exciting, but they’re based on assumptions, not facts.

Back in the day, Axie brought tons of users to Web3 without needing complex infrastructure. The same goes for Stepn or even SteemIt (anyone still remember that first popular social platform from 2016?).

So here’s my controversial take: we’re building infrastructure not because it’s urgently needed, but because we don’t know what else to build.

I agree if you disagree.

Top gainers by monthly active users.

Data source: Token Terminal

Interestingly, Bitcoin now shows a higher correlation with Nasdaq than with gold.

Structural changes are occurring, though many have yet to notice.

Gas prices on Ethereum are rising – this may be a result of MEV bot activity.

For example, jaredfromsubway.eth spent $352,127.48 on gas on September 23rd and over $2.6 million in gas last week.

In case you’re watching new infra protocols, Nillion is a great thing to add to your watch list.

Here’s my explainer thread.

$cbBTC already represents 49% of the total wrapped Bitcoin volume 😳

Chain and account abstraction, DeFi, and memecoins were the most mentioned narratives from January to the end of August.

These conclusions were drawn by Kaito AI. According to the platform's data, BRC20 experienced the largest decline, at 72.7%.

A few insights and research findings gathered over the past week ⚡️

General
➖ Binance: Navigating Crypto: Industry Map
➖ Galaxy: Ethereum All Core Developers Consensus Call #142 Writeup
➖ Galaxy: Weekly Top Stories - 9/20

Market
➖ Coinbase: Weekly: The Pivot
➖ Glassnode: Tracing Capital Flows
➖ Galaxy: Fed Initiates Easing Cycle by Slashing Rates by 50 Basis Points
➖ Galaxy: The Investable Universe of Digital Assets

Blockchains & networks
➖ Cryptorank: How to Craft a Unique Crypto Protocol: Lessons from Polymarket, Hyperliquid, and TON
➖ 4pillars: Will Drop Protocol and Lido Alliance Drive The Adoption of Liquid Staking?

GameFi & NFTs
➖ CoinGecko: 26 Crypto Sports Sponsorships Signed in 2024, a 38% Drop from 2021
➖ Simetri: Alphaverse: Solana’s New Gaming Handheld

This small iceberg on the right side of the chart is a bit frustrating lol.

Hopefully, we'll be back in the warm zone soon.

The number of newly created wallets on the Bitcoin network continues to grow.

Historically, this indicator has signaled an upward trend and market recovery. When the price of BTC reached peaks, the number of addresses began to decline, as investors lost interest and the market entered a correction.

A very nice Pendle explainer here, in case you’re still not Pending.

Kudos to DeFi Warhol.

Trading volumes of altcoins have sharply increased recently.

Korean investors switched from Bitcoin to altcoins in August, although they had previously shown more interest in Bitcoin.

In the last 30 days, NFT trading volume across the top 4 blockchains passed $300M.

– Ethereum: 42%
– Solana: 23.5%
– Bitcoin: 18%
– Polygon: 16.5%

Full NFT overview from OurNetwork is available here.

LayerZero (ZRO) is experiencing a surge in activity, with daily messages hitting 98,000.

This represents a 433% increase from a previous low of 18,400 messages, highlighting renewed interest after weeks of slower activity with daily messages around 20,000.

Since the beginning of the year, Mantle is one of the few L2s with increased mindshare.

Here’s my report, highlighting Mantle’s progress from Q1 to Q3.

Short-Term Holders' reactions to market shifts can be gauged by comparing the cost basis of active new investors to all new investors, normalized by the spot price. This shows when new investors overreact to unrealized profits or losses.

Recently, investors from the past 155 days show more confidence than in previous bearish trends, with lower realized losses relative to their cost basis, indicating greater market resilience.

Here’s my two cents: If someone could predict short-term market trends with at least a 60% success rate, they would be the richest person in the world.

Short-term TA and fancy drawings on the charts are not much different from astrology.

Nobody knows for sure.
We just have a variety of indicators with mixed signals.

Bullish posts tend to perform better than bearish ones because people want to chase a dream—I know this from personal experience.

What we do know is that inflation will always lower the value of fiat currency. As the market share of stocks and crypto assets grows, their valuations change accordingly.

Watch catalysts, macro, and risks.
Watch products.
Watching just charts is counter-productive.