Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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New compilation of interesting facts about Web3

– On-chain data highlights
– BTC holdings
– Solana composition
– Treasuries

And much more.
Pure data you’d never google.

Have a look!
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Guess who finally started posting on Substack?
Yeah, that’s me.


Twitter algo has been very bad recently, so I no longer want to limit myself to the format of threads.

The first publication is already waiting for you, with a curated collection of early-stage protocols from Moni Discover.

Enjoy reading and make sure to subscribe to my newsletter ❤️
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Disillusionment Zone: Ethereum ETFs vs. Bitcoin ETFs vs. Classic ETFs

Grayscale Ethereum Trust: $194M trading volume
iShares Bitcoin Trust: $1.29B trading volume
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: $44B trading volume

Our share is small.
For now.
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Last week’s volatility stands in stark contast to what we’ve witnessed earlier this year.

This time, the catalyst is more fundamental: Fears of recession.

This is a complex topic that needs lots of additional context, so I crafted a long-read for you on my Substack, explaining everything you need to know to understand the current market sentiment.

Enjoy your Sunday read and trade wisely.
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If you're overly exposed, open a put option to hedge against a further drop.

I doubt tomorrow's stock market opening will bring green candles.

In case you're wondering, I do nothing.
I've seen too many bad days since 2016 to overly care.
I don't care about temporary volatility any more.
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Market Bloodbath: Full timeline of events and side effects for well-informed decisions.

• Jump Trading drama
• Global volatility
• US elections

All reasons and effects ↓
https://stacymuur.substack.com/p/august-bloodbath-full-timeline-for

PS: The article will be updated as I get more context, make sure to subscribe to receive timely updates.
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As the market crashes, the number of whale addresses holding 1,000+ BTC is rising.

A dose of hopium.
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Essential tips: Mastering a realistic market outlook

Hope and excitement brought you here, but now you're watching your portfolio dwindle. Don't fall into the same trap of overexcitement again.

5 important tips from a person who has survived 3 bear markets ↓

Background

I have survived 3 bear markets.

2018: My first bear market. I panicked. I remember thinking $20K for Bitcoin was just the beginning. But as time passed, I watched my portfolio plummet, and in November 2018, when BTC dumped by almost 50% in days, I panic-exited.

2020: The second bear market hit. Another nearly 50% drop in a matter of days. The charts were bloody red, and FUD was everywhere. But this time, I knew it was temporary. I stayed patient, did nothing, and was rewarded with a new Bitcoin ATH just a year later.

2022: The third bear market. Shortly after the dip, I started building my 𝕏 brand. I knew this too would pass, and I decided to build while others were moaning.

5 tips from my long journey ↓

Underearning is Better than Overlosing

I recently chatted with a follower who asked what percentage of my portfolio is in stables. It was just days before the August market crash.

“Roughly 60%,” I replied.

“Wow, don’t you feel underexposed? That’s a lot!” he argued.

For me, it’s better to underearn than overlose.

Honestly, I saw no explicit catalyst for a sudden full-sized bull market or an altcoin season. I averaged my entries into high-conviction positions as DeFi tokens bled, but kept a high percentage of my portfolio in stables – for immediate liquidity if needed.

I analyzed market sentiment, retail influx chances, developments, and ETF inflow dynamics and realized that the main catalysts were coming from politics and traditional finance – things that are very hard to predict.

Follow Your Strategy

Be an independent thinker.

Build your dashboards with key metrics to watch, start reading research and taking notes, and verify facts. Quick media consumption won't lead to well-thought-out decisions. It will bring you either FUD or FOMO – nothing in between.

Side Note: In a few days, I will share a list of very cool market trend metrics to track – not just simple MACDs and RSIs, but more fundamental metrics tailored for the on-chain market. So make sure to subscribe to my newsletter ↓
https://stacymuur.substack.com

You Can Never Be Confident

I know, I might sound like a pessimistic loser, constantly underearning and never taking risks. But it's more about never being 100% confident.

Being unconfident urges you to hedge your positions, reevaluate your strategy, and rebalance your portfolio.

Being unconfident keeps you from trading fresh-new memecoins, opening high-leverage positions, and overtrading.

As someone who can't spend 24/7 staring at charts, I prefer this playbook.

Don’t Marry Your Bags

Investments and emotions should be separate. I know many protocols I love, whose teams I know, and who, in my opinion, contribute greatly to the space.

But remember: They are building products in a highly competitive environment and do not prioritize the price of their token. They focus on their products – the best way to establish a strong product-market fit.

This road is bumpy, with no guarantees they won't be outperformed by others in the short or even long term.

So don’t marry your bags.

Study and Master Trading Options

In TradFi, with a more mature market and a higher percentage of experienced participants, options are extremely popular for one main reason: hedging.

Yes, you have to pay a premium to hedge your position. But that premium is your maximum loss if the market goes against your expectations. And if you're right, paying a premium for peace of mind is worth it, right?

If you’re fully on-chain, check out Aevo.
If you are CEX-friendly, check out Deribit.

Final Thoughts

Mastering a realistic market outlook isn't about being pessimistic; it's about being prepared and making informed decisions.

Stay grounded, stay informed, and most importantly, stay patient.

This too shall pass.

Much love,
Stacy Muur
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January 2023: $BTC at $23K.
Fear & Greed Index: Greed

August 2024: $BTC at $55K.
Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear

Everything is relative.
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You: Explain Polkadot to a normie
Me: Okaay, challenge accepted


Polkadot hosts over 50 unique chains with almost 60% $DOT staking rate.

If you're still unsure what's special about Polkadot, beyond its massive marketing and $8B market cap, this tweet will help.

BASICS

Alright, let's think of Polkadot as a high-tech communication hub for blockchains.

It's main modules:

Communication Hub (Polkadot Network): Polkadot serves as a central place where various blockchains can connect and communicate efficiently.

Central Coordinator (Relay Chain): The relay chain is the core part of Polkadot. It manages the network and ensures all the connected blockchains can exchange information securely and quickly. It also provides security so the Parachains don't need to bother with it.

Connected Networks (Parachains): These are the different highly specialized blockchains that plug into Polkadot. Each parachain can have its own specific use case or functionality, but they all benefit from being able to communicate and share data through the central coordinator.

Bridges: These allow Polkadot to connect with other blockchain networks like Ethereum or Bitcoin, enabling data and asset transfers between them.

COMPARISON

What's the real impact of this design?
It's best illustrated through comparison ↓

Ethereum:
Ok, we're general-purpose, ok for everyone but not great at specific solutions. We're adding L2s and sharding to handle more traffic (scale). For shared security, we'll let solutions like EigenLayer, Karak, and Avail step in.

Cosmos:
Imagine a network of independent cities. Each city (chain) has its own rules and defenses, but they can all trade and talk with each other.

Avalanche:
We've got three main highways and tons of side roads (subnets). The side roads are easy to build, but they each have their own patrol (security).

Polkadot:
A well-coordinated metropolis where specialized districts (parachains) connect through a central hub (relay chain), sharing security and upgrading without a hitch, all governed by the community.

Have you ever read a simpler explainer?
I doubt it.
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There’s rarely something brand new in the space, but I loved a lot the idea of Mantis.

In a nutshell, Mantis is a DeFi settlement layer with native yields (imagine you deposit on Binance and as you wait for your order to be executed, it accrues yield).

A very interesting concept, here’s my overview.
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Gm, fam!

Together with my X frens we’ve created this folder for you with nice channels covering crypto, research, and macro.

Add folder here.

Be informed, make thoughtful decisions.

Much love,
Stacy
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Just as promised, here’s my compilation of the most important on-chain indicators to track, especially if you’re a mid-term or long-term investor.

The publication is available on my Substack, make sure to subscribe if you love the content I push ❤️

https://stacymuur.substack.com/p/5-metrics-to-track-when-you-lose
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Since 2016, a16z has regularly shared the reading lists of their team.

Here is a compilation of 10 excellent economy, business, and finance books from their recommendations ↓

Publication on Substack
Twitter thread
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New incentive program in the DePIN sector: Stake Race by Fluence.

Here’s your quick summary of the project and its ongoing rewards program.
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In 2024, the TON ecosystem has become a true phenomenon, experiencing a 45-fold increase in TVL since the start of the year.

Let's explore the top DeFi yield and airdrop opportunities on TON.

Here’s my summary.
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If you believe we're experiencing a bull market correction, check Google Trends.

We are now at the levels seen in November 2023.

Was spring 2024 the shortest bull run in history, or has there been no bull market at all?
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