New compilation of research for this week

General
➖ Coinbase: Monthly Outlook: Searching for the (Next) Crypto Catalysts
➖ Coinbase: Weekly: Chaotic Crossroads
➖ SSRN: Crypto and Its Industry of Theft
➖ SSRN: What Do Initial Coin Offering Whitepapers Disclose?
➖ Glassnode: The Fourth Halving
➖ Galaxy: Ethereum All Core Developers Consensus Call #132 Writeup
➖ Galaxy: Hawkish Fed and Hot Data
➖ Galaxy: Top Stories of the Week - 4/19

Market
➖ SSRN: Are Bitcoin Option Traders Speculative or Informed?
➖ SSRN: The Negative Investor Attention Impact on Bitcoin
➖ Glassnode: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Their Impacts

DeFi
➖ Galaxy: From the Source: Exploring the Evolution and Growth of DeSoc Apps

Blockchains & networks
➖ CoinMarketCap: What Is the Runes Protocol? Record High BTC Fees Following Launch
➖ Simetri: Alphaverse: Runes What?

GameFi & NFTs
➖ CoinGecko: NFT Lending Volume Surpass $2.1B in Q1, Led by Blend
➖ SSRN: The Future of Cryptocurrencies, NFT, Metaverse and Taxation

Sometimes, we all really suck at risk management.

Dropped a checklist that helps you understand that your risk management skills need some improvement + 10 quick tips to help you invest better.

Have a look

Have you ever heard about Movement?

Quite an interesting thing, an AltVM trailblaizer, huge funding round just announced.

Here’s your executive summary.

Open Dollar launched mainnet recently.

Quite interesting innovations there in terms of the LST >< CDP flywheel.

Here’s a detailed report.

Just stumbled upon this beautiful sheet by Ash.

It's been two years since he released it, but thanks to regular updates, it remains incredibly relevant.

Can't think of a better map of DeFi for normies.

The current meta of token launches is not too healthy – the reason I pass most ICO and even KOL round opportunities.

Here’s my evaluation framework explaining the modern state of tokenomics and its main challenges you should pay attention to.

The TON ecosystem doesn’t need to evolve like any other blockchain.

Here’s everything you need to know to understand why TON will be the chain of mass adoption (and how you can capitalize on it).

This is why classic LPing on MUX, Gearbox, or KTX is far superior to farming airdrops.

It's predictable, at the very least.
I literally spent x2 on gas to be among the first restakers.

The rollup narrative keeps printing.

Reya attracted $220M in just a few days, planning to become the liquidity layer of Web3.

A viable Aevo competitor? Here’s your explainer.

Have you ever heard about Morpho?

If not, it’s time; probably Morpho is the protocol to flip Aave and Compound’s dominance in the lending industry.

Here’s my detailed thread.

Do you know how to find good buys by analyzing token unlocks + fundamentals?

If not, then my new guide will be very helpful.

Have a look!

Narratives, sorted by greed:

#1 Memecoins
#2 AI
#3 Airdrops
#4 Bitcoin DeFi
#5 Data availability
#6 Bitcoin L2
#7 Chain Abstraction
#8 AltVM & Parallel EVM
#9 Restaking & Liquid restaking
#10 AppChains
#11 Yield (i.e. Pendle, Convex)
#12 RWA
#13 DePIN
#14 L1
#15 SocialFi
#16 Other infrastructure (ZK, Data indexing, RPCs, Oracles)
#17 Gaming & GameFi
#18 Ethereum L2s
#19 Lending
#20 Options & SIPs
#21 Trading bots
#22 RaaS (Rollups as a service)
#23 Derivatives & synthetics
#24 LSTfi
#25 Account Abstraction
#26 NFTs
#27 Liquid staking
#28 CDPs
#29 Launchpads
#30 DEXes
#31 Prediction markets
#32 Insurance

Decided to dive into the Sui eco to check if there’re some good buys there.

So here’s my Navi thesis, currently the Top-1 dApp on Sui.

If you have not lost hopium and continue the restaking grind, there’s a nice opportunity offered by Stader now with some bonus points and $SD incentives.

Here’s a quick summary + APR you can expect (a DeFi lego thing yields 200% APR).

I guess many of you are to get the $AVAIL airdrop.

So here are my assumptions on the launch FDV + $AVAIL use cases explainer.

Checked some of the latest research, found an interesting correlation.

Somehow, Cosmos ($ATOM) is back to meta.

Quick overview here.

Quick facts & thoughts on the current state of the market ↓

• Many alts from the top-100 CoinGecko are at pre-bull market levels (November / December).

• DeFi OGs are hard gainers (1y gains: $UNI +38%, $AAVE +35%, $LDO -7.5%, $GMX -54%, $STG -22%, $RDNT -40%, $FXS -34% vs. $BTC +134%)

• Most alts correlate heavily with $BTC / $ETH but dump harder.

• $TON, $TRX, $CHEEL move independently from $BTC (last 7d).

• Perps and options protocols are among the worst-performing categories atm.

• AI, Restaking, and LRTfi, and RWA are the most turbulence-resisting.

• Marketing and awareness matter much more than fundamentals or product traction now.

Personal thoughts (NFA):

• Avoid buying DeFi OGs even if they seem to be a good entry now as long as they ignore marketing. No narrative = no gains.

• High-FDV TGEs are a new trend, but tokens keep dumping post TGE. Good for airdrop farming, bad for investments.

• This cycle is about three main things: memecoins, AI, and passive yield (airdrops included here).

• Most trending narratives are not brand new (restaking might be the youngest, but everyone's already a bit tired) so I expect that there will be a brand new trend to pop up very soon and gain a share of restaking's craze. Let's see.

What are your feelings on the current market?

Pro tip: Etherscan and Bankless have introduced a new feature that lets you check for unclaimed airdrops on the explorer.

• Paste your address on Etherscan.
• Navigate to the cards tab.
• Verify any unclaimed airdrops.

PS: Remember to revoke approvals on the same page.