Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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Plasma, Arbitrum, and Polygon now hold the largest supply of native USDT0.

Unified omnichain liquidity is quietly turning DeFi into a single capital surface, powered by the world’s most used stablecoin.
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We just saw the sharpest ERC-20 stablecoin drawdown of this cycle.

Supply dropped ~$7B in a week as capital rotated back to fiat and excess stables got burned. Historically that’s a risk-off tell — it needs to reverse fast to stay cyclical, not structural.
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Revenue cooled with volume, but Hyperliquid still leads the industry in free cash flow.

Annualized FCF sits around $520–620M, with ~99% routed to $HYPE buybacks — and even after unlocks, valuation still screens cheap. Upside’s there, but it’s not risk-free.
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Perp DEX tokens still trade like pure beta — tightly tied to overall crypto attention.

Execution across venues feels commoditized for retail, but transparency isn’t: buybacks, revenue splits, incentives. Over time, price dispersion will likely come from who actually opens the books.
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Buybacks sound good on paper, but markets don’t reward them in a drawdown.

When macro turns risk-off, tokens with buybacks and low P/E get hit just like everything else — sometimes worse. Cash flow doesn’t immunize price from sentiment.
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Bitcoin just printed $4.5B in realized losses — the largest in three years.

That kind of flush usually marks stress, not complacency.
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30-day earnings look busy — Avalanche, Jito, Bungee, Derive, MetaDAO all printing six figures.

But Arbitrum DAO quietly pulls ~$200K a month from treasury interest alone — no fees, no MEV, no risk trades. Sometimes capital just works.
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HIP-3 is becoming core to Hyperliquid.

Those markets now make up 8.1% of total OI (~$625M), spanning metals, mega-cap tech, and broad indices. TradFi exposure is finding a clean onchain wrapper.
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ETFs now account for ~6.5% of combined BTC + ETH market cap.

And despite all the “self-sovereign” talk, flows already lean heavily on them.
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MegaETH stress tests are pushing past 20K TPS as an L2 using EigenDA.

Early signs suggest throughput isn’t the bottleneck anymore — coordination is.
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Ethereum network fees just fell to their lowest level since May 2017.

Cheap blockspace is back — quietly changing what’s viable onchain.
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Institutions follow revenue.

On Arbitrum, Timeboost already pushed $6.29M back into the DAO, reinforcing a multi-revenue flywheel.
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Tether rolled out USAT to compete head-on for institutional adoption.

With Anchorage-backed compliance and early listings across major venues, USAT gives Tether a cleaner lane into regulated flows — especially for firms spanning the US and emerging markets.
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L2s are doing the heavy lifting for Ethereum’s network effect.

Monthly transactions on L2s now outpace L1 by nearly 9×, quietly redefining where activity actually lives.
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Tokenized equities crossed 150K holders.

Most of that demand clusters around Tesla and Nvidia — familiar names pull liquidity first.
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Tron crossed 4.59M active accounts — up 36% MoM.
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Base lending yields finally normalized.

As capital flowed in, the old 2–3% USDC premium compressed to ~50bps, pulling rates back in line with Ethereum. Liquidity does what liquidity always does.
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Alts had a brutal year.

Only ~6% are up YoY, while the average token is down ~70%. That’s not rotation — that’s capitulation.
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Liquid staking is no longer a one-horse race.

Competing LSTs absorbed ~4.5M ETH — nearly 30% of new stake — while Lido’s share slid from ~90% to ~65%. Distribution is finally happening.
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Prediction markets are already an oligopoly.

Kalshi, Opinion, and Polymarket control ~96% of volume, while everyone else fights over scraps, and users concentrate even harder than volume. Polymarket stands out with ~2M all-time users, which explains a lot.
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