Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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Tokenized funds just printed a new ATH at ~$14.4B, with Maple Finance leading at ~14.8% market share.

As capital consolidates around trusted issuers — alongside names like BlackRock and Circle — Maple isn’t just participating, it’s compounding with the flow. Tokenized funds are becoming onchain treasuries, and defaults matter.
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Tokenized RWAs just crossed $21B in TVL.

Long-term forecasts vary — $2–4T by McKinsey, up to $16T per Boston Consulting Group, but directionally, the slope is clear.
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Bitget’s on-chain Earn relaunch — now running through Morpho on Arbitrum — pushed vault deposits back above $200M.

SteakhouseFi (52%) and Gauntlet (26%) dominate curation, which is where trust keeps clustering.
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Options flow at Wintermute more than doubled in 2025.

Counterparties stopped using options as punts and started using them as tools — yield structuring, hedging, and balance-sheet management. Directional trading gave way to systems.
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TRON keeps cementing itself as a payments rail.

By the end of Q4, the network hosted $81.8B in stablecoins — $80.9B of that in USDT.
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Volatility looks mispriced again.

Historically, when IV trades well below fair value near BTC highs, drawdowns follow — last signal fired days before October’s liquidation cascade. Indicators now point to volatility skewing higher, not lower.
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Lending keeps gaining share inside DeFi.

Over the past year, it grew from ~16.6% to 21.3% of total TVL — slow, structural expansion rather than a narrative spike.
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Plasma, Arbitrum, and Polygon now hold the largest supply of native USDT0.

Unified omnichain liquidity is quietly turning DeFi into a single capital surface, powered by the world’s most used stablecoin.
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We just saw the sharpest ERC-20 stablecoin drawdown of this cycle.

Supply dropped ~$7B in a week as capital rotated back to fiat and excess stables got burned. Historically that’s a risk-off tell — it needs to reverse fast to stay cyclical, not structural.
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Revenue cooled with volume, but Hyperliquid still leads the industry in free cash flow.

Annualized FCF sits around $520–620M, with ~99% routed to $HYPE buybacks — and even after unlocks, valuation still screens cheap. Upside’s there, but it’s not risk-free.
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Perp DEX tokens still trade like pure beta — tightly tied to overall crypto attention.

Execution across venues feels commoditized for retail, but transparency isn’t: buybacks, revenue splits, incentives. Over time, price dispersion will likely come from who actually opens the books.
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Buybacks sound good on paper, but markets don’t reward them in a drawdown.

When macro turns risk-off, tokens with buybacks and low P/E get hit just like everything else — sometimes worse. Cash flow doesn’t immunize price from sentiment.
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Bitcoin just printed $4.5B in realized losses — the largest in three years.

That kind of flush usually marks stress, not complacency.
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30-day earnings look busy — Avalanche, Jito, Bungee, Derive, MetaDAO all printing six figures.

But Arbitrum DAO quietly pulls ~$200K a month from treasury interest alone — no fees, no MEV, no risk trades. Sometimes capital just works.
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HIP-3 is becoming core to Hyperliquid.

Those markets now make up 8.1% of total OI (~$625M), spanning metals, mega-cap tech, and broad indices. TradFi exposure is finding a clean onchain wrapper.
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ETFs now account for ~6.5% of combined BTC + ETH market cap.

And despite all the “self-sovereign” talk, flows already lean heavily on them.
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MegaETH stress tests are pushing past 20K TPS as an L2 using EigenDA.

Early signs suggest throughput isn’t the bottleneck anymore — coordination is.
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Ethereum network fees just fell to their lowest level since May 2017.

Cheap blockspace is back — quietly changing what’s viable onchain.
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Institutions follow revenue.

On Arbitrum, Timeboost already pushed $6.29M back into the DAO, reinforcing a multi-revenue flywheel.
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Tether rolled out USAT to compete head-on for institutional adoption.

With Anchorage-backed compliance and early listings across major venues, USAT gives Tether a cleaner lane into regulated flows — especially for firms spanning the US and emerging markets.
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