Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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Nexo saw sustained $2B+ monthly stablecoin inflows back in 2021–22, cooled during 2023, but never really lost usage.

As of January 2026, cumulative inflows crossed $30B, pointing to steady demand for borrowing against assets without forced selling. Old-school CeFi lending, packaged with DeFi instincts, still has a bid.
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Kalshi just hit a new spot ATH.

$474.2M traded on Saturday alone — liquidity keeps showing up when outcomes actually matter.
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Bitmine is doing most of the heavy lifting in the ETH staking queue, accounting for roughly half of all inflows over the past month.

If staking APY starts to compress, LST/LRT loops lose their edge and ETH borrow demand shifts — especially with Aave rates already sitting around 2–2.3%.
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Prediction markets are crossing the line from niche products into core financial infrastructure.

Polymarket and Kalshi still absorb most of the flow — with Kalshi owning regulated U.S. volume and Opinion starting to post real weekly scale. Liquidity is clustering early, and that usually decides the winners.
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Quiet fee leaderboard shift on Solana.

Protocols like Meteora, Jupiter, and pump.fun keep climbing on revenue. Fee gravity usually shows up before narratives do.
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Lazy Summer is showing what “automated risk management” actually looks like.

When Stream Finance blew up, the vault rebalanced out of risk and rotated into blue-chip strategies without users touching anything. Yield is optional — capital preservation isn’t.
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Rough stat: nearly 80% of hacked crypto projects never make it back.

The exploit hurts, but the trust death is what actually kills them.
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Pendle’s fee efficiency is doing all the work with a small subset of pools — over 60% are still unprofitable.

As the protocol stated, the new sPENDLE rollout replaces vePENDLE with a liquid staking model, aiming to remove governance and liquidity friction in one move.
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Solana hit a 70% staking ratio — a new ATH.

Roughly $60B in SOL is now securing the network, which says more about holder conviction than any marketing slide.
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Tokenized funds just printed a new ATH at ~$14.4B, with Maple Finance leading at ~14.8% market share.

As capital consolidates around trusted issuers — alongside names like BlackRock and Circle — Maple isn’t just participating, it’s compounding with the flow. Tokenized funds are becoming onchain treasuries, and defaults matter.
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Tokenized RWAs just crossed $21B in TVL.

Long-term forecasts vary — $2–4T by McKinsey, up to $16T per Boston Consulting Group, but directionally, the slope is clear.
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Bitget’s on-chain Earn relaunch — now running through Morpho on Arbitrum — pushed vault deposits back above $200M.

SteakhouseFi (52%) and Gauntlet (26%) dominate curation, which is where trust keeps clustering.
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Options flow at Wintermute more than doubled in 2025.

Counterparties stopped using options as punts and started using them as tools — yield structuring, hedging, and balance-sheet management. Directional trading gave way to systems.
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TRON keeps cementing itself as a payments rail.

By the end of Q4, the network hosted $81.8B in stablecoins — $80.9B of that in USDT.
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Volatility looks mispriced again.

Historically, when IV trades well below fair value near BTC highs, drawdowns follow — last signal fired days before October’s liquidation cascade. Indicators now point to volatility skewing higher, not lower.
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Lending keeps gaining share inside DeFi.

Over the past year, it grew from ~16.6% to 21.3% of total TVL — slow, structural expansion rather than a narrative spike.
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Plasma, Arbitrum, and Polygon now hold the largest supply of native USDT0.

Unified omnichain liquidity is quietly turning DeFi into a single capital surface, powered by the world’s most used stablecoin.
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We just saw the sharpest ERC-20 stablecoin drawdown of this cycle.

Supply dropped ~$7B in a week as capital rotated back to fiat and excess stables got burned. Historically that’s a risk-off tell — it needs to reverse fast to stay cyclical, not structural.
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Revenue cooled with volume, but Hyperliquid still leads the industry in free cash flow.

Annualized FCF sits around $520–620M, with ~99% routed to $HYPE buybacks — and even after unlocks, valuation still screens cheap. Upside’s there, but it’s not risk-free.
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Perp DEX tokens still trade like pure beta — tightly tied to overall crypto attention.

Execution across venues feels commoditized for retail, but transparency isn’t: buybacks, revenue splits, incentives. Over time, price dispersion will likely come from who actually opens the books.
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