China Sold a Record Amount of U.S. Treasury Bonds in Q1 2024
China offloaded a staggering $49 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds in the first quarter of 2024, an amount equivalent to the GDP of Mongolia. In December, China held $816.3 billion in U.S. debt; by March, this figure had dropped to $767.4 billion and continues to decline. While the U.S. makes bold statements, China acts quietly and without much noise. Since 2022, China has already sold off a third of its U.S. Treasury holdings.
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China offloaded a staggering $49 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds in the first quarter of 2024, an amount equivalent to the GDP of Mongolia. In December, China held $816.3 billion in U.S. debt; by March, this figure had dropped to $767.4 billion and continues to decline. While the U.S. makes bold statements, China acts quietly and without much noise. Since 2022, China has already sold off a third of its U.S. Treasury holdings.
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Multipolar Market
Europe's Problems Are Just Beginning: Why the ECB Doesn't Want to Lower the Rate It's May, which means it's time to summarize the economic results of the first quarter of 2024. Despite 2024 being much better for the European economy than 2023, it still faces…
Eurozone - Consumer Inflation CPI (May Preliminary):
Year-over-year = +2.6% (expected +2.5% / previous +2.4%)
Core CPI = +2.9% year-over-year (expected +2.7% / previous +2.7%)
As it was said - no rate cuts soon.
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Year-over-year = +2.6% (expected +2.5% / previous +2.4%)
Core CPI = +2.9% year-over-year (expected +2.7% / previous +2.7%)
As it was said - no rate cuts soon.
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US Population Becoming Poorer at a Record Pace
While Congress continues to issue billion-dollar checks for corruption schemes in Ukraine, the local population is slowly but steadily sliding into absolute poverty. Data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that people have never taken out loans so quickly.
At the end of the first quarter, U.S. household debt reached a record level: total debt increased to $17.69 trillion, an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. As of March, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. According to the Federal Reserve, this figure is still 1.5% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, but the growth rate is unprecedented. The data also show a wide range of credit card usage. About one in six credit card users utilizes at least 90% of their available limit.
The report also states that in the last quarter, 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned into serious delinquency, compared to 4.6% a year ago. For credit card holders aged 18-29, 9.9% of loans were seriously delinquent. Auto loan delinquencies are also higher, as in 2023, the average monthly car payment jumped to $738. Approximately 2.8% of auto loans are currently 90 or more days delinquent, affecting about 3 million vehicles. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category after mortgages, with an outstanding amount of $1.62 trillion.
The largest debt burden is on housing, with mortgages accounting for more than 70% of all loans. The number of new mortgages has fallen to nearly record-low levels due to sharply rising rates. Meanwhile, about $160 billion in additional home equity loans were issued—the biggest increase since 2008—with $37 billion added in the past year.
Overall, the picture is grim, especially considering that inflation shows no signs of stopping. It’s also worth noting that the moratorium on freezing student loan payments recently ended, making the situation even worse.
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While Congress continues to issue billion-dollar checks for corruption schemes in Ukraine, the local population is slowly but steadily sliding into absolute poverty. Data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that people have never taken out loans so quickly.
At the end of the first quarter, U.S. household debt reached a record level: total debt increased to $17.69 trillion, an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. As of March, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. According to the Federal Reserve, this figure is still 1.5% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, but the growth rate is unprecedented. The data also show a wide range of credit card usage. About one in six credit card users utilizes at least 90% of their available limit.
The report also states that in the last quarter, 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned into serious delinquency, compared to 4.6% a year ago. For credit card holders aged 18-29, 9.9% of loans were seriously delinquent. Auto loan delinquencies are also higher, as in 2023, the average monthly car payment jumped to $738. Approximately 2.8% of auto loans are currently 90 or more days delinquent, affecting about 3 million vehicles. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category after mortgages, with an outstanding amount of $1.62 trillion.
The largest debt burden is on housing, with mortgages accounting for more than 70% of all loans. The number of new mortgages has fallen to nearly record-low levels due to sharply rising rates. Meanwhile, about $160 billion in additional home equity loans were issued—the biggest increase since 2008—with $37 billion added in the past year.
Overall, the picture is grim, especially considering that inflation shows no signs of stopping. It’s also worth noting that the moratorium on freezing student loan payments recently ended, making the situation even worse.
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Russian Economy Rises to Fourth Place in Purchasing Power Parity
According to World Bank data, the Russian economy rose to fourth place in purchasing power parity (PPP), overtaking Japan in 2021 and maintaining its position in the following years.
By the end of 2022, the World Bank reported that Russia had become the fifth-largest economy in the world, surpassing Germany. However, those calculations were based on 2017 data and have now been updated to reflect 2021 data.
Earlier, President Putin set the goal for Russia to reach fourth place among the world's economies in terms of PPP, and the Cabinet was instructed to prepare measures to achieve this goal by March 31, 2025.
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According to World Bank data, the Russian economy rose to fourth place in purchasing power parity (PPP), overtaking Japan in 2021 and maintaining its position in the following years.
By the end of 2022, the World Bank reported that Russia had become the fifth-largest economy in the world, surpassing Germany. However, those calculations were based on 2017 data and have now been updated to reflect 2021 data.
Earlier, President Putin set the goal for Russia to reach fourth place among the world's economies in terms of PPP, and the Cabinet was instructed to prepare measures to achieve this goal by March 31, 2025.
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🛬 Boeing’s at it again: Singapore incident adds to troublesome streak
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Oil Prices or an Unexpected Turn of Events
Despite the recent decline in the prices of major oil benchmarks, most analysts predict an inevitable rise in prices by the end of the year. This is largely due to increasing costs, falling production, and uncertainties surrounding the Red Sea. However, other, more unexpected factors could also influence prices.
This week in the U.S., a group of 22 Democratic senators led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the Department of Justice to investigate the Federal Trade Commission's statement that the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources colluded with OPEC to maintain high oil prices.
The FTC accused a high-ranking oil executive of conspiring with OPEC and OPEC+ members to limit production and raise oil prices. OPEC+ has currently reduced production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, which is about 5.7% of global demand. These cuts include 3.66 million barrels per day by OPEC+ members, valid until the end of 2024, and 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, which expire at the end of June.
Regarding the actions of Pioneer Natural Resources, it is unclear how they might have coordinated with foreign producers. However, the mere existence of such accusations suggests this may not be an isolated case.
This coming Sunday, OPEC+ members are expected to meet, where they may decide to extend some or all of the 3.66 million barrels per day cuts into 2025 and some or all of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cuts into the third and fourth quarters of 2024.
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Despite the recent decline in the prices of major oil benchmarks, most analysts predict an inevitable rise in prices by the end of the year. This is largely due to increasing costs, falling production, and uncertainties surrounding the Red Sea. However, other, more unexpected factors could also influence prices.
This week in the U.S., a group of 22 Democratic senators led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the Department of Justice to investigate the Federal Trade Commission's statement that the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources colluded with OPEC to maintain high oil prices.
The FTC accused a high-ranking oil executive of conspiring with OPEC and OPEC+ members to limit production and raise oil prices. OPEC+ has currently reduced production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, which is about 5.7% of global demand. These cuts include 3.66 million barrels per day by OPEC+ members, valid until the end of 2024, and 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, which expire at the end of June.
Regarding the actions of Pioneer Natural Resources, it is unclear how they might have coordinated with foreign producers. However, the mere existence of such accusations suggests this may not be an isolated case.
This coming Sunday, OPEC+ members are expected to meet, where they may decide to extend some or all of the 3.66 million barrels per day cuts into 2025 and some or all of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cuts into the third and fourth quarters of 2024.
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Sanctions on Metals from Russia: Interim Results
The EU has increased its purchases of Russian metals to the highest level since May of last year.
Belgium imported the most, with purchases amounting to €130.5 million—a 3.5-fold increase and a record since June 2022. Italy bought €85 million worth, Denmark €35 million, the Czech Republic €23 million, the Netherlands €20 million, and Hungary €13.7 million.
Overall, in March 2024, imports of iron and steel from Russia to the EU increased 1.7 times, reaching €328 million. Aluminum imports saw a 29% year-over-year increase. Germany's imports quintupled to €22.4 million. Spain saw a 69% increase, and Poland 21%.
A surprising twist is that not all metals from Australia, the USA, South Korea, and other countries meet European standards for environmental sustainability, reliability, and quality. Only metals from "backward" Russia fully comply with these standards.
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The EU has increased its purchases of Russian metals to the highest level since May of last year.
Belgium imported the most, with purchases amounting to €130.5 million—a 3.5-fold increase and a record since June 2022. Italy bought €85 million worth, Denmark €35 million, the Czech Republic €23 million, the Netherlands €20 million, and Hungary €13.7 million.
Overall, in March 2024, imports of iron and steel from Russia to the EU increased 1.7 times, reaching €328 million. Aluminum imports saw a 29% year-over-year increase. Germany's imports quintupled to €22.4 million. Spain saw a 69% increase, and Poland 21%.
A surprising twist is that not all metals from Australia, the USA, South Korea, and other countries meet European standards for environmental sustainability, reliability, and quality. Only metals from "backward" Russia fully comply with these standards.
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US Sanctions Have Led to the Creation of a Shadow Economy Led by China
According to WSJ observers, sanctions and export controls against countries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela were designed to have a significant impact on Washington's adversaries. However, they have not achieved the desired effect and instead have created a new shadow economy, from which China has benefited the most. For example, the Chinese reduce costs by buying oil at discounts. In return, they sell goods, technology, and weapons necessary for sanctioned countries, as evidenced by statistics showing active trade.
Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are becoming more dependent on China, allowing them to pursue policies that divert US attention. Sanctions increase costs but have not become a panacea. They are effective for politicians who want to show the public that they are taking action. The reduction in dollar payments makes it more challenging to monitor transactions. For instance, in 2023, Poly Technologies, a Chinese military-industrial complex company, made about 20 shipments to the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant, which had been on the US sanctions list for a year.
The information in the WSJ article does not present major revelations, but such publications may gradually influence policy changes.
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According to WSJ observers, sanctions and export controls against countries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela were designed to have a significant impact on Washington's adversaries. However, they have not achieved the desired effect and instead have created a new shadow economy, from which China has benefited the most. For example, the Chinese reduce costs by buying oil at discounts. In return, they sell goods, technology, and weapons necessary for sanctioned countries, as evidenced by statistics showing active trade.
Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are becoming more dependent on China, allowing them to pursue policies that divert US attention. Sanctions increase costs but have not become a panacea. They are effective for politicians who want to show the public that they are taking action. The reduction in dollar payments makes it more challenging to monitor transactions. For instance, in 2023, Poly Technologies, a Chinese military-industrial complex company, made about 20 shipments to the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant, which had been on the US sanctions list for a year.
The information in the WSJ article does not present major revelations, but such publications may gradually influence policy changes.
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Russia and China Transition to USDT
According to Bloomberg analysts, major companies in the metallurgical sector are using cryptocurrencies, including USDT, for transactions. This approach helps China avoid secondary sanctions and allows Russia to obtain easily convertible assets that are essentially equivalent to dollars.
However, this news seems more like another reason for sanctions "somewhere over there"—over 90% of Russia-China trade is conducted in national currencies. It appears that private entities have started using USDT, which does not violate any sanctions. This development is inconvenient for those who have already imposed billions in other sanctions. Pressure on Tether is expected, but it is unclear what actions can be taken, given the decentralized nature of the platforms involved.
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According to Bloomberg analysts, major companies in the metallurgical sector are using cryptocurrencies, including USDT, for transactions. This approach helps China avoid secondary sanctions and allows Russia to obtain easily convertible assets that are essentially equivalent to dollars.
However, this news seems more like another reason for sanctions "somewhere over there"—over 90% of Russia-China trade is conducted in national currencies. It appears that private entities have started using USDT, which does not violate any sanctions. This development is inconvenient for those who have already imposed billions in other sanctions. Pressure on Tether is expected, but it is unclear what actions can be taken, given the decentralized nature of the platforms involved.
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G7 and EU Prepare Sanctions Against Third-Country Banks Using Russian Financial Messaging System
Bloomberg reports that G7 and EU countries are preparing sanctions against banks in third countries that use Russia's Financial Messaging System (SPFS). The SPFS network includes 557 banks and companies, with 159 non-residents from 20 countries among them. This system is utilized by banks in China, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, among others. Some banks have already received notifications about the potential for restrictions on operations conducted through SPFS.
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Bloomberg reports that G7 and EU countries are preparing sanctions against banks in third countries that use Russia's Financial Messaging System (SPFS). The SPFS network includes 557 banks and companies, with 159 non-residents from 20 countries among them. This system is utilized by banks in China, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, among others. Some banks have already received notifications about the potential for restrictions on operations conducted through SPFS.
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What have we missed here while I was in a hospital again:
FED and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve recently announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. The Fed projects that the U.S. economy is likely headed towards a "soft landing," with GDP growth expected to remain above 2.0% through 2026. The Fed anticipates core PCE inflation to moderate to 2.6% in 2024 and eventually reach 2.0% by 2026. This stability suggests that the Fed may consider rate cuts later this year if inflation continues to moderate as expected.
Stock Market Performance
U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have shown strong performance. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) has driven significant gains, with companies like Adobe reporting substantial increases in their stock prices due to strong quarterly results and optimistic future guidance. The S&P 500 reached a record high, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data and positive investor sentiment. NVIDIA is now top cap.
Europe
In Europe, economic conditions remain mixed. Eurozone inflation has accelerated, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider its next policy moves. The European Parliament elections have introduced new political uncertainties, which have impacted the euro and European stock markets. Despite these challenges, the ECB and other central banks in Europe continue to maintain dovish stances, which could support economic stability in the long run. France is on the brink.
China
China's economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace has been slower than anticipated. Consumer confidence remains cautious, and the yuan has not yet achieved full internationalization. Despite these challenges, China's demand for commodities like oil remains strong, contributing to global economic activity. Recent data shows that China's oil demand reached an all-time high, reflecting its ongoing industrial recovery.
Sanctions
Russia is dealing with increased sanctions from the US and Europe, targeting its financial infrastructure and military-industrial supply chains. In response, Russia is seeking to strengthen economic ties with non-western countries. These partnerships focus on energy exports and technological collaboration to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.
BRICS
The BRICS nations are discussing ways to enhance economic cooperation and reduce dependency on Western financial systems. These discussions include potential agreements on alternative payment systems to bypass the US dollar, highlighting a shift towards more localized economic strategies. New members to join soon.
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FED and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve recently announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. The Fed projects that the U.S. economy is likely headed towards a "soft landing," with GDP growth expected to remain above 2.0% through 2026. The Fed anticipates core PCE inflation to moderate to 2.6% in 2024 and eventually reach 2.0% by 2026. This stability suggests that the Fed may consider rate cuts later this year if inflation continues to moderate as expected.
Stock Market Performance
U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have shown strong performance. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) has driven significant gains, with companies like Adobe reporting substantial increases in their stock prices due to strong quarterly results and optimistic future guidance. The S&P 500 reached a record high, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data and positive investor sentiment. NVIDIA is now top cap.
Europe
In Europe, economic conditions remain mixed. Eurozone inflation has accelerated, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider its next policy moves. The European Parliament elections have introduced new political uncertainties, which have impacted the euro and European stock markets. Despite these challenges, the ECB and other central banks in Europe continue to maintain dovish stances, which could support economic stability in the long run. France is on the brink.
China
China's economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace has been slower than anticipated. Consumer confidence remains cautious, and the yuan has not yet achieved full internationalization. Despite these challenges, China's demand for commodities like oil remains strong, contributing to global economic activity. Recent data shows that China's oil demand reached an all-time high, reflecting its ongoing industrial recovery.
Sanctions
Russia is dealing with increased sanctions from the US and Europe, targeting its financial infrastructure and military-industrial supply chains. In response, Russia is seeking to strengthen economic ties with non-western countries. These partnerships focus on energy exports and technological collaboration to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.
BRICS
The BRICS nations are discussing ways to enhance economic cooperation and reduce dependency on Western financial systems. These discussions include potential agreements on alternative payment systems to bypass the US dollar, highlighting a shift towards more localized economic strategies. New members to join soon.
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Russia and Vietnam Transition to National Currencies in Transactions — Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted that in the first quarter of this year, 60% of payments between Russia and Vietnam were already conducted in national currencies. This transition marks a significant move towards reducing reliance on the US dollar and other foreign currencies in bilateral trade.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted that in the first quarter of this year, 60% of payments between Russia and Vietnam were already conducted in national currencies. This transition marks a significant move towards reducing reliance on the US dollar and other foreign currencies in bilateral trade.
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EU Ambassadors Agree on 14th Sanctions Package Against Russia
As reported by the media, the new sanctions are expected to include restrictions on the transshipment of Russian LNG in the EU and the transportation of Russian oil.
🤡 14th time luck?
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As reported by the media, the new sanctions are expected to include restrictions on the transshipment of Russian LNG in the EU and the transportation of Russian oil.
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Head of Ineos Jim Ratcliffe: "Everyone is Leaving Europe's Petrochemical Industry, the Market is in Chaos"
Jim Ratcliffe, the second richest person in Britain and owner of Manchester United, stated that he has never seen anything like what is happening now in his lifetime. According to Ratcliffe, the sharp rise in energy prices in the EU following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has forced the closure of a significant amount of capacity.
The chemical industry in Scotland, according to Ratcliffe, "has ceased to exist," and the same is about to happen in Germany and France. What to do next at Ineos is uncertain.
They know, but they don't want to say it out loud.
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Jim Ratcliffe, the second richest person in Britain and owner of Manchester United, stated that he has never seen anything like what is happening now in his lifetime. According to Ratcliffe, the sharp rise in energy prices in the EU following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has forced the closure of a significant amount of capacity.
The chemical industry in Scotland, according to Ratcliffe, "has ceased to exist," and the same is about to happen in Germany and France. What to do next at Ineos is uncertain.
They know, but they don't want to say it out loud.
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Houthis Helped Russia Monopolize the Suez Canal
The combined flow of oil and petroleum products transiting the Suez Canal in both directions decreased by 34% in May compared to the previous month and by 65% compared to the same period last year, according to Kpler data. The majority of the oil passing south through the Suez Canal is now of Russian origin—92% in May.
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The combined flow of oil and petroleum products transiting the Suez Canal in both directions decreased by 34% in May compared to the previous month and by 65% compared to the same period last year, according to Kpler data. The majority of the oil passing south through the Suez Canal is now of Russian origin—92% in May.
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How the US Spent $230 Million on Nothing
A rather amusing story unfolded a few months ago when the US military decided to provide humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, which Israel was bombing with American bombs. In an attempt to deliver some food to Palestinian refugees, the US decided it was necessary to create a floating pier west of Gaza to unload supplies. The idea was good and morally right, but the execution, as always, failed.
The first problem with the floating pier was its design and assembly: it was planned in haste, so there was no time to work on the design and functionality, nor was there time to reliably assemble the structure. After nearly 1,000 people worked on this creation, it was finally towed to Gaza.
The pier began operating on May 18, but from the very start, everything went wrong: desperate Palestinians attacked the first trucks with humanitarian aid and looted them before they could reach the distribution warehouse managed by the UN World Food Programme. As a result, the pier's operations were suspended for two days.
Then, just a week after opening, rough seas and strong winds destroyed the pier, and four related vessels ran aground. This caused another halt in operations as the pier components were taken to an Israeli port for repairs. The pier was reassembled, but on Friday, US Central Command announced that it would be towed to Israel due to an approaching storm from the open sea.
In the end, the pier lasted 10 days, and the total amount of money spent was $230 million. The only thing the US achieved was a new round of public accusations of criminal inaction.
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A rather amusing story unfolded a few months ago when the US military decided to provide humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, which Israel was bombing with American bombs. In an attempt to deliver some food to Palestinian refugees, the US decided it was necessary to create a floating pier west of Gaza to unload supplies. The idea was good and morally right, but the execution, as always, failed.
The first problem with the floating pier was its design and assembly: it was planned in haste, so there was no time to work on the design and functionality, nor was there time to reliably assemble the structure. After nearly 1,000 people worked on this creation, it was finally towed to Gaza.
The pier began operating on May 18, but from the very start, everything went wrong: desperate Palestinians attacked the first trucks with humanitarian aid and looted them before they could reach the distribution warehouse managed by the UN World Food Programme. As a result, the pier's operations were suspended for two days.
Then, just a week after opening, rough seas and strong winds destroyed the pier, and four related vessels ran aground. This caused another halt in operations as the pier components were taken to an Israeli port for repairs. The pier was reassembled, but on Friday, US Central Command announced that it would be towed to Israel due to an approaching storm from the open sea.
In the end, the pier lasted 10 days, and the total amount of money spent was $230 million. The only thing the US achieved was a new round of public accusations of criminal inaction.
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Bill Gates Announces Billion-Dollar Investments in Building Nuclear Reactors in the US
Microsoft founder Bill Gates has announced his intention to invest billions of dollars in the development of nuclear energy in the US, aiming to catch up with and surpass China in this field. However, one such project in Wyoming has encountered difficulties due to the inability to obtain uranium fuel from Russia because of sanctions.
Gates stated that he has already invested over a billion dollars in this sector and is ready to allocate several more billions. These large-scale investments are driven by the entrepreneur's desire to "unleash the innovative power of the US" and maintain the country's leadership in nuclear energy.
Gates is confident that producing reactors in the US can be more efficient and economically advantageous compared to foreign competitors.
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Microsoft founder Bill Gates has announced his intention to invest billions of dollars in the development of nuclear energy in the US, aiming to catch up with and surpass China in this field. However, one such project in Wyoming has encountered difficulties due to the inability to obtain uranium fuel from Russia because of sanctions.
Gates stated that he has already invested over a billion dollars in this sector and is ready to allocate several more billions. These large-scale investments are driven by the entrepreneur's desire to "unleash the innovative power of the US" and maintain the country's leadership in nuclear energy.
Gates is confident that producing reactors in the US can be more efficient and economically advantageous compared to foreign competitors.
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