Multipolar Market
Europe moving towards complete dependence on Russian fertilizers Fertilizers are the new gas. This is the conclusion reached by the Financial Times after studying the options available to European farmers for fertilizing their lands. Russian fertilizers are…
Russia captured more than a third of the Indian fertilizer market
The country has increased its share to 34% in January-February from 23% in the same period of 2023, maintaining its position as the top fertilizer supplier to the country.
The supplier structure in the Indian fertilizer market has transformed over the last year. China, which held the second spot in terms of export volumes in 2023, fell to seventh place as its shipments at the start of the year plummeted eightfold to 59.3 tons. Saudi Arabia moved up from third to second place, holding 12.2% of the market, though the physical volume of fertilizer imports halved to 217.8 thousand tons. Oman took third place with an 11.5% market share, reducing its shipments by 37% to 206.1 thousand tons. Together, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Oman accounted for nearly 58% of the deliveries for the reported period. Suppliers from Canada and the UAE managed to increase their market shares from 3.4% to 9.7% and from 1.7% to 6.6%, respectively.
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The country has increased its share to 34% in January-February from 23% in the same period of 2023, maintaining its position as the top fertilizer supplier to the country.
The supplier structure in the Indian fertilizer market has transformed over the last year. China, which held the second spot in terms of export volumes in 2023, fell to seventh place as its shipments at the start of the year plummeted eightfold to 59.3 tons. Saudi Arabia moved up from third to second place, holding 12.2% of the market, though the physical volume of fertilizer imports halved to 217.8 thousand tons. Oman took third place with an 11.5% market share, reducing its shipments by 37% to 206.1 thousand tons. Together, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Oman accounted for nearly 58% of the deliveries for the reported period. Suppliers from Canada and the UAE managed to increase their market shares from 3.4% to 9.7% and from 1.7% to 6.6%, respectively.
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Turkey-Israel trade halt
President Erdogan's announcement of a complete halt in trade with Israel until it ensures the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza could significantly reduce the trade volume between the two countries by billions of dollars. In response, Israel's Industrialists Association has called for protective tariffs on imports from Turkey for the next three years and is considering a complete ban on certain goods. Israel may also initiate programs to reduce its reliance on Turkish construction materials, food, and other imports.
In 2023, the trade turnover between the two countries was $6.8 billion, with 76% of it consisting of imports from Turkey, making it Israel's sixth-largest source of imports. Major categories include steel, machinery, minerals, fuel, and food products.
Israel and Turkey had restored diplomatic relations in August of the previous year after a decade of tension. However, the trade volume was not significantly affected—it was even higher in 2022. The countries had been exploring opportunities to expand cooperation, but the situation was disrupted by a Hamas attack, which the Turkish authorities do not consider a terrorist organization, and Erdogan immediately spoke out against attacks on Gaza.
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President Erdogan's announcement of a complete halt in trade with Israel until it ensures the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza could significantly reduce the trade volume between the two countries by billions of dollars. In response, Israel's Industrialists Association has called for protective tariffs on imports from Turkey for the next three years and is considering a complete ban on certain goods. Israel may also initiate programs to reduce its reliance on Turkish construction materials, food, and other imports.
In 2023, the trade turnover between the two countries was $6.8 billion, with 76% of it consisting of imports from Turkey, making it Israel's sixth-largest source of imports. Major categories include steel, machinery, minerals, fuel, and food products.
Israel and Turkey had restored diplomatic relations in August of the previous year after a decade of tension. However, the trade volume was not significantly affected—it was even higher in 2022. The countries had been exploring opportunities to expand cooperation, but the situation was disrupted by a Hamas attack, which the Turkish authorities do not consider a terrorist organization, and Erdogan immediately spoke out against attacks on Gaza.
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Apple announced the largest share buyback in U.S. history
It will amount to $110 billion, setting a new record for the company which already holds the top five largest buybacks. This news came alongside their quarterly sales report, which exceeded expectations, suggesting an end to their recent downturn despite a 4.3% drop in revenue for the quarter. While Apple's stock had been down 10% year-to-date, the S&P 500 had risen by 6%. Sales in China, a critical market for Apple, have been declining, but CEO Tim Cook indicated that revenues from iPhone sales in mainland China have increased, attributing the overall revenue decline to other parts of the business.
Additionally, on May 7, Apple plans to introduce new iPads, marking the first update to the tablet line in a year and a half. In June, Tim Cook will present a strategy on artificial intelligence at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which typically positively impacts tech company stocks if expectations are not too high.
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It will amount to $110 billion, setting a new record for the company which already holds the top five largest buybacks. This news came alongside their quarterly sales report, which exceeded expectations, suggesting an end to their recent downturn despite a 4.3% drop in revenue for the quarter. While Apple's stock had been down 10% year-to-date, the S&P 500 had risen by 6%. Sales in China, a critical market for Apple, have been declining, but CEO Tim Cook indicated that revenues from iPhone sales in mainland China have increased, attributing the overall revenue decline to other parts of the business.
Additionally, on May 7, Apple plans to introduce new iPads, marking the first update to the tablet line in a year and a half. In June, Tim Cook will present a strategy on artificial intelligence at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which typically positively impacts tech company stocks if expectations are not too high.
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It's not "we told you so" yet, but almost there
Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have urged European Union partners to refrain from confiscating frozen Russian assets, according to the Financial Times (FT), citing sources. Both countries are concerned that such actions could set a precedent that might threaten their own reserves in Europe. At a recent G20 finance ministers' meeting, representatives from Indonesia and Saudi Arabia expressed worries about the safety of their funds, questioning, "Are our funds still safe?"
In the EU itself, the idea of confiscating Russian assets is not widely supported. Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti noted that finding a legal basis for such a decision would be "difficult and complicated," while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire believes it is entirely impossible. Germany and Japan also remain "extremely cautious" regarding this issue.
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Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have urged European Union partners to refrain from confiscating frozen Russian assets, according to the Financial Times (FT), citing sources. Both countries are concerned that such actions could set a precedent that might threaten their own reserves in Europe. At a recent G20 finance ministers' meeting, representatives from Indonesia and Saudi Arabia expressed worries about the safety of their funds, questioning, "Are our funds still safe?"
In the EU itself, the idea of confiscating Russian assets is not widely supported. Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti noted that finding a legal basis for such a decision would be "difficult and complicated," while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire believes it is entirely impossible. Germany and Japan also remain "extremely cautious" regarding this issue.
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Afghanistan wants business with Russia
Afghanistan has proposed to create a hub for trading Russian oil within its territory, specifically in the western province of Herat. This initiative, developed in cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, aims to leverage the region's strategic geographical location to facilitate oil supplies to South Asian countries.
During a recent intergovernmental meeting in Kabul, which included representatives from the three countries, Kazakhstan offered to assist in developing the necessary railway infrastructure. This railway would connect South Asia with the Persian Gulf, facilitating a north-south trade corridor.
The planned hub is expected to have a capacity of up to 1 million tons of oil, enabling shipments to Pakistan and other regional countries that lack their own oil fields.
This is what happens, when "democratic forces" leave.
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Afghanistan has proposed to create a hub for trading Russian oil within its territory, specifically in the western province of Herat. This initiative, developed in cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, aims to leverage the region's strategic geographical location to facilitate oil supplies to South Asian countries.
During a recent intergovernmental meeting in Kabul, which included representatives from the three countries, Kazakhstan offered to assist in developing the necessary railway infrastructure. This railway would connect South Asia with the Persian Gulf, facilitating a north-south trade corridor.
The planned hub is expected to have a capacity of up to 1 million tons of oil, enabling shipments to Pakistan and other regional countries that lack their own oil fields.
This is what happens, when "democratic forces" leave.
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Don't send us your gas, but we will sue you
The German company Uniper, formerly the largest purchaser of Russian gas in Germany, is demanding more than $15 billion from Gazprom as compensation for losses incurred due to Moscow's breach of gas contracts.
The German company, which used to buy 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Gazprom, expects a court verdict in the coming months. Sources from Reuters believe it is highly likely that the court will side with the German company in its dispute with the Russian gas giant.
You couldn't make it up if you tried: impose sanctions, refuse Russian gas, sue because the Russians refuse to supply gas, and demand $15 billion.
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The German company Uniper, formerly the largest purchaser of Russian gas in Germany, is demanding more than $15 billion from Gazprom as compensation for losses incurred due to Moscow's breach of gas contracts.
The German company, which used to buy 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Gazprom, expects a court verdict in the coming months. Sources from Reuters believe it is highly likely that the court will side with the German company in its dispute with the Russian gas giant.
You couldn't make it up if you tried: impose sanctions, refuse Russian gas, sue because the Russians refuse to supply gas, and demand $15 billion.
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Luxury car manufacturers diversify their business
In Miami, Aston Martin has completed a 66-story tower featuring elite apartments. The sail-shaped complex includes a scenic pool with jacuzzis and changing cabanas on the 55th floor, as well as a two-story fitness center, two cinemas, and a virtual golf simulator. The building features a sky bar, a restaurant, a ballroom, private dining areas, as well as a spa, a beauty salon, and a barbershop. It offers direct access to the sea via a super-yacht marina and services of a private butler.
Aston Martin announced that 99% of the apartments were sold before the construction was completed. The apartments were listed for $1.5–$8.5 million, while the penthouses ranged from $16 to $59 million. Buyers of the most expensive units were gifted an Aston Martin Vulcan—of which only 24 exist—as well as an Aston Martin DBX sports SUV or a DB11 sports car.
Aston Martin is not the first luxury car manufacturer to enter the elite housing market. A 63-story building by Bentley is set to open in 2026 along the coastline of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, featuring 216 apartments.
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In Miami, Aston Martin has completed a 66-story tower featuring elite apartments. The sail-shaped complex includes a scenic pool with jacuzzis and changing cabanas on the 55th floor, as well as a two-story fitness center, two cinemas, and a virtual golf simulator. The building features a sky bar, a restaurant, a ballroom, private dining areas, as well as a spa, a beauty salon, and a barbershop. It offers direct access to the sea via a super-yacht marina and services of a private butler.
Aston Martin announced that 99% of the apartments were sold before the construction was completed. The apartments were listed for $1.5–$8.5 million, while the penthouses ranged from $16 to $59 million. Buyers of the most expensive units were gifted an Aston Martin Vulcan—of which only 24 exist—as well as an Aston Martin DBX sports SUV or a DB11 sports car.
Aston Martin is not the first luxury car manufacturer to enter the elite housing market. A 63-story building by Bentley is set to open in 2026 along the coastline of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, featuring 216 apartments.
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While global media speculate on the reasons for the rise in gold prices, Goldman Sachs stoically informs their clients:
If the U.S. continues with sanctions at the current pace (as it has been since 2022), then Goldman expects an additional +16% increase.
If the U.S. stages another mini-budget crisis (like the circus with the "debt ceiling"), then Goldman expects an additional +14%.
Excellent prospects.
The Goldmans also do not have a crystal ball, they do not know the future, and they have no guarantees (or investment recommendations), but the direction of movement (and the logic of their math model) is likely close to reality.
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China and Serbia: BRICS of the Chinese Kind
President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, is seriously considering foregoing membership in the European Union and joining the BRICS group, a move that could represent a significant geopolitical shift. The prospect of the Balkans joining BRICS is really worrying diplomatic departments in Western countries.
Serbia's potential inclusion in BRICS opens unprecedented opportunities for the Communist Party of China (CPC). There is also a possibility that Emmanuel Macron might join a BRICS summit as an observer, a position the French President has been advocating for some time.
In August 2023, China referred to BRICS as a closed block open only to certain states, but now there is increasing discussion about expanding access to BRICS' membership mechanisms. According to China's own statements, preliminary negotiations are currently underway with Nigeria, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan.
Concurrently with negotiations with Serbia, the CPC has begun to describe BRICS as an "open group," making the bloc attractive to other European countries and justifying the invitation of observer nations. China's obvious intent is to bring France into BRICS. However, given France's possible deployment of its Foreign Legion units to Ukraine, the prospects for this issue's resolution with Russia remain quite vague.
Why does China want to scale BRICS to European countries? The answer is simple: BRICS is China's analog to the North American Free Trade Area. Although the principles and rules of organization differ, their objectives are very similar. China aims to use BRICS to bring as broad a range of countries as possible under its influence.
In this view, other countries within BRICS, from the Chinese perspective, are seen as nothing more than resource satellites whose main task is to support the functioning of the Chinese economy and facilitate the transfer of brains and technology from the periphery to the center.
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President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, is seriously considering foregoing membership in the European Union and joining the BRICS group, a move that could represent a significant geopolitical shift. The prospect of the Balkans joining BRICS is really worrying diplomatic departments in Western countries.
Serbia's potential inclusion in BRICS opens unprecedented opportunities for the Communist Party of China (CPC). There is also a possibility that Emmanuel Macron might join a BRICS summit as an observer, a position the French President has been advocating for some time.
In August 2023, China referred to BRICS as a closed block open only to certain states, but now there is increasing discussion about expanding access to BRICS' membership mechanisms. According to China's own statements, preliminary negotiations are currently underway with Nigeria, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan.
Concurrently with negotiations with Serbia, the CPC has begun to describe BRICS as an "open group," making the bloc attractive to other European countries and justifying the invitation of observer nations. China's obvious intent is to bring France into BRICS. However, given France's possible deployment of its Foreign Legion units to Ukraine, the prospects for this issue's resolution with Russia remain quite vague.
Why does China want to scale BRICS to European countries? The answer is simple: BRICS is China's analog to the North American Free Trade Area. Although the principles and rules of organization differ, their objectives are very similar. China aims to use BRICS to bring as broad a range of countries as possible under its influence.
In this view, other countries within BRICS, from the Chinese perspective, are seen as nothing more than resource satellites whose main task is to support the functioning of the Chinese economy and facilitate the transfer of brains and technology from the periphery to the center.
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Spending patterns after earning in cryptocurrency are not similar to lottery winnings, economists have found
According to Associate Professor Darren Aiello from the Finance Department at Brigham Young University in the United States, if households tend to treat cryptocurrency like gambling, it is expected that they would spend their earnings similarly to lottery winners. However, their assessments show that household expenses due to cryptocurrency income are more similar to patterns observed with traditional stock investments. Earnings from cryptocurrency increased the consumption of American households by about $30 billion over ten years. Their consumption share from earnings grew more than after gains in the stock market but less than with lottery winnings.
This issue is important when legalizing cryptocurrencies, which proponents of traditional markets often consider analogous to gambling and financial pyramids. In the U.S., after the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the pool of potential crypto investors expanded. Through the analysis of income distribution, attempts can be made to determine how rationally people use investments. However, economists note that much depends on the initial income level—poorer households will fully utilize their winnings to meet needs. One way to find this out is the housing market. In some parts of California, Nevada, Utah, and other places where cryptocurrency is popular, housing prices have grown faster than the average level. For every household that withdrew $5,000 from their cryptocurrency account, one in twenty bought a home for the first time, researchers at Brigham Young University calculated.
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According to Associate Professor Darren Aiello from the Finance Department at Brigham Young University in the United States, if households tend to treat cryptocurrency like gambling, it is expected that they would spend their earnings similarly to lottery winners. However, their assessments show that household expenses due to cryptocurrency income are more similar to patterns observed with traditional stock investments. Earnings from cryptocurrency increased the consumption of American households by about $30 billion over ten years. Their consumption share from earnings grew more than after gains in the stock market but less than with lottery winnings.
This issue is important when legalizing cryptocurrencies, which proponents of traditional markets often consider analogous to gambling and financial pyramids. In the U.S., after the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the pool of potential crypto investors expanded. Through the analysis of income distribution, attempts can be made to determine how rationally people use investments. However, economists note that much depends on the initial income level—poorer households will fully utilize their winnings to meet needs. One way to find this out is the housing market. In some parts of California, Nevada, Utah, and other places where cryptocurrency is popular, housing prices have grown faster than the average level. For every household that withdrew $5,000 from their cryptocurrency account, one in twenty bought a home for the first time, researchers at Brigham Young University calculated.
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Warren Buffett has accumulated a record $189 billion in cash
Each time he accumulates large sums of money as the Federal Reserve raises rates, a significant stock market crash occurs within the next 12 months, analysts note. This was the case in 2000, 2008, and 2020.
He sells assets and stays in cash. Cash is needed to buy assets at the bottom. The chart shows that before every crisis, he moved into cash.
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Each time he accumulates large sums of money as the Federal Reserve raises rates, a significant stock market crash occurs within the next 12 months, analysts note. This was the case in 2000, 2008, and 2020.
He sells assets and stays in cash. Cash is needed to buy assets at the bottom. The chart shows that before every crisis, he moved into cash.
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Green agenda troubles
BP is scaling back its plans to reduce emissions and cut hydrocarbon production, following other companies. The company is using quite elaborate rhetoric: the "ultimate" goals remain in effect, but the "interim" targets for emissions and production are being revised.
Western companies are reducing commitments from a 40% reduction to 20% or even 15% by 2030. It should be noted that previously, companies like Shell, BP, and even Chevron were very vocal in the media about reducing production due to environmental concerns.
The chaos and energy supply crisis in Europe, along with growing demand for oil and gas from Asian countries, have spurred demand and production volumes. OPEC countries, while supporting reductions, are not slowing down in the exploration of new fields. Additionally, countries such as Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, and others are taking more steps to attract international corporations to develop oil reserves.
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BP is scaling back its plans to reduce emissions and cut hydrocarbon production, following other companies. The company is using quite elaborate rhetoric: the "ultimate" goals remain in effect, but the "interim" targets for emissions and production are being revised.
Western companies are reducing commitments from a 40% reduction to 20% or even 15% by 2030. It should be noted that previously, companies like Shell, BP, and even Chevron were very vocal in the media about reducing production due to environmental concerns.
The chaos and energy supply crisis in Europe, along with growing demand for oil and gas from Asian countries, have spurred demand and production volumes. OPEC countries, while supporting reductions, are not slowing down in the exploration of new fields. Additionally, countries such as Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, and others are taking more steps to attract international corporations to develop oil reserves.
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Two can play this game
In response to the EU's tariffs on Chinese automobiles, China is considering imposing similar duties on alcohol from the EU. The mere news of this investigation caused the stocks of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau to plummet. China accounts for 20% of France's cognac exports, and this figure is even higher if parallel markets are considered. Industry representatives are expected to seek discussions with Xi Jinping during his visit to France.
Previously, China had implemented similar sanctions against Australia and its wine, raising tariffs to 218.4%, effectively halting shipments and bankrupting some Australian producers.
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In response to the EU's tariffs on Chinese automobiles, China is considering imposing similar duties on alcohol from the EU. The mere news of this investigation caused the stocks of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau to plummet. China accounts for 20% of France's cognac exports, and this figure is even higher if parallel markets are considered. Industry representatives are expected to seek discussions with Xi Jinping during his visit to France.
Previously, China had implemented similar sanctions against Australia and its wine, raising tariffs to 218.4%, effectively halting shipments and bankrupting some Australian producers.
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Saudi Aramco has raised its oil prices for Asian consumers for the third consecutive month, indicating confidence in ongoing demand. The flagship Arab Light crude, scheduled for delivery in June, will see a price increase of $0.90.
This price hike was not unexpected for consumers; however, even such a modest increase could impact the profitability of Asian refineries, particularly in China. This could potentially trigger a new wave of fuel price increases globally.
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German industrial orders declined by 0.4% in March compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of growth.
In February, the figure dropped by 0.8% according to revised data, instead of the previously reported 0.2% increase.
Foreign orders in March increased by 2%, including a 10.6% rise from eurozone countries. However, orders from other countries decreased by 2.9%. Domestic orders fell by 3.6%.
Orders for capital goods and intermediate goods decreased by 0.4%, while orders for consumer goods rose by 0.7%.
Overall, the volume of orders for German industrial enterprises in March decreased by 1.9% compared to the same month in 2023, following a decrease of 8.8% in February.
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According to data published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum, total fuel consumption in India rose to 19.8 million tons per month, marking a 6% increase, with consumption in March also up by a similar 5%.
The main drivers of demand growth have been the revival of industry and freight transportation. According to analysts, including those from Bernstein, India is expected to become the world's leading fuel consumer by the end of the decade, surpassing China in consumption volumes.
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That's according to American oil and gas giant Chevron and the smaller company, Cheniere.
A significant portion of gas demand will come from electricity generation, as other energy sources such as solar or wind cannot yet provide sufficient volume and uninterrupted power supply.
Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere, believes that China alone will double its gas consumption by the end of the 2020s, and the demand for electricity in the USA is expected to increase by 20% by that time. Meeting such a demand volume in a short time is possible with new gas power plants, which are significantly cheaper than nuclear power plants and are also classified as "green energy."
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