Green agenda troubles
BP is scaling back its plans to reduce emissions and cut hydrocarbon production, following other companies. The company is using quite elaborate rhetoric: the "ultimate" goals remain in effect, but the "interim" targets for emissions and production are being revised.
Western companies are reducing commitments from a 40% reduction to 20% or even 15% by 2030. It should be noted that previously, companies like Shell, BP, and even Chevron were very vocal in the media about reducing production due to environmental concerns.
The chaos and energy supply crisis in Europe, along with growing demand for oil and gas from Asian countries, have spurred demand and production volumes. OPEC countries, while supporting reductions, are not slowing down in the exploration of new fields. Additionally, countries such as Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, and others are taking more steps to attract international corporations to develop oil reserves.
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BP is scaling back its plans to reduce emissions and cut hydrocarbon production, following other companies. The company is using quite elaborate rhetoric: the "ultimate" goals remain in effect, but the "interim" targets for emissions and production are being revised.
Western companies are reducing commitments from a 40% reduction to 20% or even 15% by 2030. It should be noted that previously, companies like Shell, BP, and even Chevron were very vocal in the media about reducing production due to environmental concerns.
The chaos and energy supply crisis in Europe, along with growing demand for oil and gas from Asian countries, have spurred demand and production volumes. OPEC countries, while supporting reductions, are not slowing down in the exploration of new fields. Additionally, countries such as Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, and others are taking more steps to attract international corporations to develop oil reserves.
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Two can play this game
In response to the EU's tariffs on Chinese automobiles, China is considering imposing similar duties on alcohol from the EU. The mere news of this investigation caused the stocks of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau to plummet. China accounts for 20% of France's cognac exports, and this figure is even higher if parallel markets are considered. Industry representatives are expected to seek discussions with Xi Jinping during his visit to France.
Previously, China had implemented similar sanctions against Australia and its wine, raising tariffs to 218.4%, effectively halting shipments and bankrupting some Australian producers.
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In response to the EU's tariffs on Chinese automobiles, China is considering imposing similar duties on alcohol from the EU. The mere news of this investigation caused the stocks of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau to plummet. China accounts for 20% of France's cognac exports, and this figure is even higher if parallel markets are considered. Industry representatives are expected to seek discussions with Xi Jinping during his visit to France.
Previously, China had implemented similar sanctions against Australia and its wine, raising tariffs to 218.4%, effectively halting shipments and bankrupting some Australian producers.
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Saudi Aramco has raised its oil prices for Asian consumers for the third consecutive month, indicating confidence in ongoing demand. The flagship Arab Light crude, scheduled for delivery in June, will see a price increase of $0.90.
This price hike was not unexpected for consumers; however, even such a modest increase could impact the profitability of Asian refineries, particularly in China. This could potentially trigger a new wave of fuel price increases globally.
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German industrial orders declined by 0.4% in March compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of growth.
In February, the figure dropped by 0.8% according to revised data, instead of the previously reported 0.2% increase.
Foreign orders in March increased by 2%, including a 10.6% rise from eurozone countries. However, orders from other countries decreased by 2.9%. Domestic orders fell by 3.6%.
Orders for capital goods and intermediate goods decreased by 0.4%, while orders for consumer goods rose by 0.7%.
Overall, the volume of orders for German industrial enterprises in March decreased by 1.9% compared to the same month in 2023, following a decrease of 8.8% in February.
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According to data published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum, total fuel consumption in India rose to 19.8 million tons per month, marking a 6% increase, with consumption in March also up by a similar 5%.
The main drivers of demand growth have been the revival of industry and freight transportation. According to analysts, including those from Bernstein, India is expected to become the world's leading fuel consumer by the end of the decade, surpassing China in consumption volumes.
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That's according to American oil and gas giant Chevron and the smaller company, Cheniere.
A significant portion of gas demand will come from electricity generation, as other energy sources such as solar or wind cannot yet provide sufficient volume and uninterrupted power supply.
Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere, believes that China alone will double its gas consumption by the end of the 2020s, and the demand for electricity in the USA is expected to increase by 20% by that time. Meeting such a demand volume in a short time is possible with new gas power plants, which are significantly cheaper than nuclear power plants and are also classified as "green energy."
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Key Points of Vladimir Putin's Newly Signed Decree
- The decree is titled "National Development Goals."
- The primary demographic goal is to increase the total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.6 by 2030 and to 1.8 by 2036, up from the current 1.4. Additionally, the average life expectancy is expected to rise to 78 years by 2030.
- By 2030, Russia aims to become the world's fourth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). Currently ranked fifth, Russia must overtake Japan, which is currently 20-25% ahead.
- Russia's economic growth should exceed the global average, which currently stands at 3%. Russia's GDP growth for 2023 was 3.6%, but the average growth over the last decade has been 1-2%.
- The decree sets a goal to reduce social inequality to a Gini coefficient of 0.37 by 2030. In 2023, it was 0.403. The closer to zero, the better.
- The poverty level should be reduced to 7% by 2030. It currently stands at 8.5%.
- The average minimum living space per person by 2030 should be 33 square meters, compared to the current average of approximately 28 square meters.
The decree also incorporates certain elements from the previous iterations of 2018 and 2020, such as sustainable population growth, support for childbirth, increased social payments, and other points. Analysts note that although the timeframe for achieving these goals has been extended to 2030, the decree has become more realistic overall (the list of tasks was reduced from 160 to 82). Importantly, many of the goals are not arbitrary but are based on ongoing processes, such as Russia's recent overtaking of Germany for the fifth place in GDP by PPP.
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- The decree is titled "National Development Goals."
- The primary demographic goal is to increase the total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.6 by 2030 and to 1.8 by 2036, up from the current 1.4. Additionally, the average life expectancy is expected to rise to 78 years by 2030.
- By 2030, Russia aims to become the world's fourth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). Currently ranked fifth, Russia must overtake Japan, which is currently 20-25% ahead.
- Russia's economic growth should exceed the global average, which currently stands at 3%. Russia's GDP growth for 2023 was 3.6%, but the average growth over the last decade has been 1-2%.
- The decree sets a goal to reduce social inequality to a Gini coefficient of 0.37 by 2030. In 2023, it was 0.403. The closer to zero, the better.
- The poverty level should be reduced to 7% by 2030. It currently stands at 8.5%.
- The average minimum living space per person by 2030 should be 33 square meters, compared to the current average of approximately 28 square meters.
The decree also incorporates certain elements from the previous iterations of 2018 and 2020, such as sustainable population growth, support for childbirth, increased social payments, and other points. Analysts note that although the timeframe for achieving these goals has been extended to 2030, the decree has become more realistic overall (the list of tasks was reduced from 160 to 82). Importantly, many of the goals are not arbitrary but are based on ongoing processes, such as Russia's recent overtaking of Germany for the fifth place in GDP by PPP.
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China – World Leader in Money Supply Growth
Since 2000, China has outpaced both the US and the Eurozone combined in terms of the speed of yuan printing. Money issuance in China, the US, and Europe is based on borrowing. However, there's a subtle difference: in China, the main borrowers are businesses, the population, and provinces. Through loans, investments are attracted to manufacturing and services, new real estate, and infrastructure respectively.
In developed countries, the main borrower is the government. In the US, for example, the main expenditure item of the federal budget is social welfare. This means that money borrowed by the government directly or indirectly ends up in the pockets of the country's residents. From there, the money quickly flows into stores, and from there, to the exporters like China.
In the end, all major economies are printing money. However, inflation hits developed countries the hardest. China, on the other hand, has devised an excellent tool for channeling excess liquidity: it is invested in production and building.
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Since 2000, China has outpaced both the US and the Eurozone combined in terms of the speed of yuan printing. Money issuance in China, the US, and Europe is based on borrowing. However, there's a subtle difference: in China, the main borrowers are businesses, the population, and provinces. Through loans, investments are attracted to manufacturing and services, new real estate, and infrastructure respectively.
In developed countries, the main borrower is the government. In the US, for example, the main expenditure item of the federal budget is social welfare. This means that money borrowed by the government directly or indirectly ends up in the pockets of the country's residents. From there, the money quickly flows into stores, and from there, to the exporters like China.
In the end, all major economies are printing money. However, inflation hits developed countries the hardest. China, on the other hand, has devised an excellent tool for channeling excess liquidity: it is invested in production and building.
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▪️ How is the US trying to shape the region for itself in 2024?
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Fresh world brains are Asian
This week, UNESCO released a new report on "Global Migration for 2024," which provides an overview of the state of educational migration worldwide. The numbers are quite intriguing and largely echo what has been said repeatedly: China and India will be key economic regions of the 21st century.
The report examines the number of students from different countries studying abroad and ranks the most "internationalized" educational economies. Unsurprisingly, China tops the list with just over one million students studying abroad. India is in second place with 508,000 students, followed by Vietnam with 137,000, slightly more than Germany with 126,000. Remarkably, Uzbekistan follows Germany with 109,000 students.
It is also noteworthy that the total number of international students is only 6.4 million, meaning that China and India account for about 25% of this number. As for their destinations, the United States remains the largest host country for foreign students (over 833,000). The UK (about 601,000), Australia (about 378,000), Germany (over 376,000), and Canada (about 318,000) follow.
Given these figures, it is not surprising that many complex technological supply chains are migrating to Asia. Western countries are effectively training their current and future competitors. If these numbers are projected over years or decades, this represents tens of millions of highly educated individuals that China and India will benefit from. The main hope is that along with technical skills and knowledge, they do not import the troubles of Western civilization.
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This week, UNESCO released a new report on "Global Migration for 2024," which provides an overview of the state of educational migration worldwide. The numbers are quite intriguing and largely echo what has been said repeatedly: China and India will be key economic regions of the 21st century.
The report examines the number of students from different countries studying abroad and ranks the most "internationalized" educational economies. Unsurprisingly, China tops the list with just over one million students studying abroad. India is in second place with 508,000 students, followed by Vietnam with 137,000, slightly more than Germany with 126,000. Remarkably, Uzbekistan follows Germany with 109,000 students.
It is also noteworthy that the total number of international students is only 6.4 million, meaning that China and India account for about 25% of this number. As for their destinations, the United States remains the largest host country for foreign students (over 833,000). The UK (about 601,000), Australia (about 378,000), Germany (over 376,000), and Canada (about 318,000) follow.
Given these figures, it is not surprising that many complex technological supply chains are migrating to Asia. Western countries are effectively training their current and future competitors. If these numbers are projected over years or decades, this represents tens of millions of highly educated individuals that China and India will benefit from. The main hope is that along with technical skills and knowledge, they do not import the troubles of Western civilization.
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Iraq 🛢 Ukraine
Iraq has unexpectedly handed over the development of the strategically important Akkas field to a Ukrainian company, bypassing expected Russian companies. The rights were granted to "Ukrzemresource."
The proven reserves of the field amount to about 159 billion cubic meters of gas, and Iraq's Ministry of Oil plans to extract approximately 11 million cubic meters of fuel per day from the site.
Smells like some democracy and freedom in this news...
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Iraq has unexpectedly handed over the development of the strategically important Akkas field to a Ukrainian company, bypassing expected Russian companies. The rights were granted to "Ukrzemresource."
The proven reserves of the field amount to about 159 billion cubic meters of gas, and Iraq's Ministry of Oil plans to extract approximately 11 million cubic meters of fuel per day from the site.
Smells like some democracy and freedom in this news...
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America has imposed sanctions against 37 Chinese companies
The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 26 Chinese firms to its blacklist due to their involvement in supplying prohibited goods to Russia.
Another eight were restricted due to an incident involving a Chinese aerostat that entered American airspace. Sanctions also affected three companies involved in programs to create similar aerostats.
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The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 26 Chinese firms to its blacklist due to their involvement in supplying prohibited goods to Russia.
Another eight were restricted due to an incident involving a Chinese aerostat that entered American airspace. Sanctions also affected three companies involved in programs to create similar aerostats.
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China's exports returned to growth in April, boosting the economy
In dollar terms, exports increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year, while imports grew by 8.4%. Economists had forecasted a smaller growth. These indicators are expected to remain positive in the coming months, as there was a downturn in the middle of last year. The data confirm an increase in global demand, which supports economic growth within China. Sales abroad are crucial while household consumer spending remains weak.
Other trade leaders in Asia also saw an increase in foreign trade due to strong demand in the U.S. South Korea's exports grew by nearly 14%, and Taiwan reported a record level of shipments to the U.S. Meanwhile, China increased its exports to Southeast Asia, but not to the U.S. and EU. In imports, supplies to China from the U.S., South Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Russia grew by more than 10%.
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In dollar terms, exports increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year, while imports grew by 8.4%. Economists had forecasted a smaller growth. These indicators are expected to remain positive in the coming months, as there was a downturn in the middle of last year. The data confirm an increase in global demand, which supports economic growth within China. Sales abroad are crucial while household consumer spending remains weak.
Other trade leaders in Asia also saw an increase in foreign trade due to strong demand in the U.S. South Korea's exports grew by nearly 14%, and Taiwan reported a record level of shipments to the U.S. Meanwhile, China increased its exports to Southeast Asia, but not to the U.S. and EU. In imports, supplies to China from the U.S., South Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Russia grew by more than 10%.
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Germany's export sector is showing signs of recovery, thanks to USA and China
According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, exports in March increased by 0.9% compared to February, surpassing expectations by nearly 0.4%. This uptick comes after a 1.6% drop in February, which had sparked concerns about the competitiveness of Europe's largest economy.
The sudden shift is largely attributed to heightened demand from China and the USA. This situation underscores why European leaders are keen on improving relations with China. Despite a 3.7% increase in exports to the USA and a 3.6% rise to China, protectionism still poses significant challenges for any export-driven economy, particularly for Germany with its rising costs and decreasing competitiveness.
Overall, the situation in Germany remains challenging. Industrial orders fell by 0.4% in March, and the outlook for German industry remains subdued. This presents a complex scenario: both Russia and the EU are adjusting to the repercussions of sanctions. The impact is palpable on both sides—Russia is mitigating issues with record government spending, while Germany is sliding into recession. Yet, a complete disaster has been averted, even without Russian gas or European machinery.
It will be interesting to see what changes in the next 3-4 months. However, it seems that Germany may struggle to emerge from recession and return to even a modest growth rate of 1% per year by the end of 2024. Therefore, trade wars with China are currently highly undesirable for Europe.
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According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, exports in March increased by 0.9% compared to February, surpassing expectations by nearly 0.4%. This uptick comes after a 1.6% drop in February, which had sparked concerns about the competitiveness of Europe's largest economy.
The sudden shift is largely attributed to heightened demand from China and the USA. This situation underscores why European leaders are keen on improving relations with China. Despite a 3.7% increase in exports to the USA and a 3.6% rise to China, protectionism still poses significant challenges for any export-driven economy, particularly for Germany with its rising costs and decreasing competitiveness.
Overall, the situation in Germany remains challenging. Industrial orders fell by 0.4% in March, and the outlook for German industry remains subdued. This presents a complex scenario: both Russia and the EU are adjusting to the repercussions of sanctions. The impact is palpable on both sides—Russia is mitigating issues with record government spending, while Germany is sliding into recession. Yet, a complete disaster has been averted, even without Russian gas or European machinery.
It will be interesting to see what changes in the next 3-4 months. However, it seems that Germany may struggle to emerge from recession and return to even a modest growth rate of 1% per year by the end of 2024. Therefore, trade wars with China are currently highly undesirable for Europe.
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Sanctions return oligarchs' money back to Russia
Wealthy Russian businessmen are beginning to transfer their assets to Russian jurisdiction, reports Bloomberg. This is especially relevant for those whose companies are directly in Russia. Some are transferring assets to friendly states, such as the UAE. The reason lies in the significant risks of confiscation in the West.
Traditionally, Russian billionaires earned in Russia and then transferred profits to offshore accounts. In foreign jurisdictions, their assets, often earned by not entirely honest means, were safe. Additionally, this allowed them to reduce taxes and conceal information about their ownership. After the imposition of sanctions, this no longer works—assets related to Russia can easily be confiscated.
In Russia itself, there are two trends regarding private business. On one hand, there has been an increase in cases of nationalization. Sometimes assets that were privatized more than 30 years ago are expropriated.
On the other hand, the government welcomes the return of companies home and actively facilitates redomiciliation. Sometimes it even conducts it forcibly and freezes property rights to bring firms back under Russian jurisdiction. However, usually, businesses are simply attracted to special administrative regions, where a preferential tax regime operates.
Many Russian oligarchs have realized that Western havens are not so safe. Now those who have been extracting resources from the country for years are simply forced to build their lives in Russia. Some of them will have to face justice. Calls to return assets began as early as 2014, with certain concessions offered. But at that time, almost all oligarchs again chose a luxurious life in Europe. Now, they have no other choice. Any, even the friendliest jurisdiction can instantly cease to be so.
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Wealthy Russian businessmen are beginning to transfer their assets to Russian jurisdiction, reports Bloomberg. This is especially relevant for those whose companies are directly in Russia. Some are transferring assets to friendly states, such as the UAE. The reason lies in the significant risks of confiscation in the West.
Traditionally, Russian billionaires earned in Russia and then transferred profits to offshore accounts. In foreign jurisdictions, their assets, often earned by not entirely honest means, were safe. Additionally, this allowed them to reduce taxes and conceal information about their ownership. After the imposition of sanctions, this no longer works—assets related to Russia can easily be confiscated.
In Russia itself, there are two trends regarding private business. On one hand, there has been an increase in cases of nationalization. Sometimes assets that were privatized more than 30 years ago are expropriated.
On the other hand, the government welcomes the return of companies home and actively facilitates redomiciliation. Sometimes it even conducts it forcibly and freezes property rights to bring firms back under Russian jurisdiction. However, usually, businesses are simply attracted to special administrative regions, where a preferential tax regime operates.
Many Russian oligarchs have realized that Western havens are not so safe. Now those who have been extracting resources from the country for years are simply forced to build their lives in Russia. Some of them will have to face justice. Calls to return assets began as early as 2014, with certain concessions offered. But at that time, almost all oligarchs again chose a luxurious life in Europe. Now, they have no other choice. Any, even the friendliest jurisdiction can instantly cease to be so.
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No trade peace with China
The Biden administration is planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, according to the Wall Street Journal. In a strategic move, these tariffs could be quadrupled, marking a significant escalation in the trade tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the new tariffs will target not only electric vehicles but also other strategic industries.
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The Biden administration is planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, according to the Wall Street Journal. In a strategic move, these tariffs could be quadrupled, marking a significant escalation in the trade tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the new tariffs will target not only electric vehicles but also other strategic industries.
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Xi's trip first results
The visit of the Chinese President to France ended without any significant agreements, while his trip to Eastern Europe proved to be more fruitful. President Macron had hoped to forge closer personal ties with his Chinese counterpart to influence Vladimir Putin to end war in Ukraine. However, China's stance remains unchanged.
In Budapest, Xi Jinping announced a series of new investments, promoting Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban as models for the type of relationship the European Union could have with China. He also promised to build infrastructure in Hungary that would facilitate the distribution of products from Chinese factories across the trading bloc.
Additionally, it seems Xi has persuaded Serbia to become the first European country to join China's efforts to create a coalition challenging the US-led world order.
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The visit of the Chinese President to France ended without any significant agreements, while his trip to Eastern Europe proved to be more fruitful. President Macron had hoped to forge closer personal ties with his Chinese counterpart to influence Vladimir Putin to end war in Ukraine. However, China's stance remains unchanged.
In Budapest, Xi Jinping announced a series of new investments, promoting Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban as models for the type of relationship the European Union could have with China. He also promised to build infrastructure in Hungary that would facilitate the distribution of products from Chinese factories across the trading bloc.
Additionally, it seems Xi has persuaded Serbia to become the first European country to join China's efforts to create a coalition challenging the US-led world order.
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Uranium Tears
Centrus, the largest nuclear energy company in the United States, has announced its intention to petition relevant government agencies. They highlighted that the ban on Russian uranium imports is unacceptable to them, and they plan to continue supplying their clients while safeguarding the interests of the entire American nuclear industry. The company aims to request the U.S. authorities to make an exception for them.
Nuclear power plants account for 29% of all power stations in the States, yet the country produces little fuel for them. Recently, the U.S. reported that it had managed to produce 200 pounds (90 kg) of enriched uranium for the first time, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach 1 ton. However, this is still nearly 700 times less than what they import from Russia. Therefore, Centrus' request seems quite reasonable, and the chances of achieving it are real. The law approved by the Senate includes a provision allowing exceptions to the ban until 2027 if it serves the "national interests" of the States.
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Centrus, the largest nuclear energy company in the United States, has announced its intention to petition relevant government agencies. They highlighted that the ban on Russian uranium imports is unacceptable to them, and they plan to continue supplying their clients while safeguarding the interests of the entire American nuclear industry. The company aims to request the U.S. authorities to make an exception for them.
Nuclear power plants account for 29% of all power stations in the States, yet the country produces little fuel for them. Recently, the U.S. reported that it had managed to produce 200 pounds (90 kg) of enriched uranium for the first time, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach 1 ton. However, this is still nearly 700 times less than what they import from Russia. Therefore, Centrus' request seems quite reasonable, and the chances of achieving it are real. The law approved by the Senate includes a provision allowing exceptions to the ban until 2027 if it serves the "national interests" of the States.
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New Record Investments for TON Cryptocurrency
Pantera Capital, a major American fund, has announced plans to invest in Pavel Durov's TON and Telegram. The fund is launching a new $1 billion cryptocurrency investment project, allocating 20% of its resources to liquid and public tokens. Dan Morehead, the founder of the fund, personally met with Durov and complimented him.
Pantera Capital sees promising investment opportunities in TON because this currency is linked to the massive internet platform Telegram, which has about 930 million users — currently the third most downloaded messenger in the world. This user base can be tapped to attract potential clients through services, games, earning opportunities, and advertising payments — all of which Durov discussed at the Token2049 conference in Dubai. In a public letter about the plans to invest in TON, Morehead emphasizes Durov's independence from government authorities, a fact evidenced by his biography, which Durov discussed in an interview with Carlson. These starting positions are expected to help TON stand out among the 23,000 existing cryptocurrencies in the world and soar.
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Pantera Capital, a major American fund, has announced plans to invest in Pavel Durov's TON and Telegram. The fund is launching a new $1 billion cryptocurrency investment project, allocating 20% of its resources to liquid and public tokens. Dan Morehead, the founder of the fund, personally met with Durov and complimented him.
Pantera Capital sees promising investment opportunities in TON because this currency is linked to the massive internet platform Telegram, which has about 930 million users — currently the third most downloaded messenger in the world. This user base can be tapped to attract potential clients through services, games, earning opportunities, and advertising payments — all of which Durov discussed at the Token2049 conference in Dubai. In a public letter about the plans to invest in TON, Morehead emphasizes Durov's independence from government authorities, a fact evidenced by his biography, which Durov discussed in an interview with Carlson. These starting positions are expected to help TON stand out among the 23,000 existing cryptocurrencies in the world and soar.
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