Multipolar Market
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Crypto, trade & finance news with a grain of humor

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◾️ Fearless John is a free lance journalist covering geopolitical conflicts of the "new cold war" between the main world powers.

◾️His channel focuses on exposing war crimes and the manipulation and propaganda of the Western media and is full of subtitled videos and posts about the wars in Ukraine, Israel and the different issues affecting the relations between countries like migration crisis and Western neo-colonial practices.

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Russia, China dump dollar

Russia and China have almost completely abandoned the use of the dollar in mutual trade, according to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. More than 90% of transactions are conducted in the two countries' national currencies.

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IMF raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 2.6% to 3.2%

The Fund cites four key reasons for the growth: stable demand for hydrocarbons, increased consumption in the domestic market, growth in corporate investments, and import substitution.

Additionally, the forecast for 2025 has been raised from an increase of 1.1% to an increase of 1.8%.

In recent years, Russia's economy has consistently grown above the IMF's forecasts, suggesting a potential growth rate of 3.5%.

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Olaf Scholz: "The era of fossil fuels is coming to an end."

Meanwhile, in countries still grounded in reality:

- Norway has increased its gas production by 1.2% on an annual basis.
- Switzerland has started debates with demands to cancel the planned phase-out of nuclear power.
- The USA has increased its production of shale oil.
- France will begin construction of a new nuclear power plant in 2024, with a total of 14 planned.
- Gazprom has surpassed Turkmenistan for the first time in terms of gas supplies to China.

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How vegans change the economy of food

In Germany, there are currently 9.5 million vegetarians and vegans out of a population of 84.7 million. The growth of vegetarianism has led to the average German now consuming 51.6 kg of meat per year, compared to 61 kg in 2018 (for comparison: in Russia, it's about 80 kg of meat per year).

While meat producers and meat product manufacturers are losing money in Germany and other countries (in France, 20% of the population does not eat meat), producers of "plant-based alternatives" are gaining. Plant-based "meat" and "milk" cost as much or more than their natural counterparts, despite lower production costs: "for example, a package of four plant-based hot dog sausages costs $5.99. The real, meat-based ones cost three times less."

"Recently, several American women with lactose intolerance filed a lawsuit against Starbucks. The consumers are seeking $5 million in damages for the additional charge for oat, soy, and other types of milk — the markup can reach 40%. While the production cost of such products is comparable to regular milk, the lawsuit states. The plaintiffs argue that Starbucks has earned over $1 billion in the U.S. thanks to such markups."

Overall, the food industry does not lose out from the increasing shift of Western consumers to vegetarianism. The losses from reduced sales of meat and dairy products are compensated by the increased profits from "plant-based alternatives."

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You know... She's kinda right. I would appoint her a FED chair or smth
China continues to buy gold despite rising prices

The new record price for gold does not stop Chinese citizens and the government from buying the metal. The People's Bank of China has been purchasing for 17 consecutive months, which is the longest buying streak in history. In 2022, China bought 218 tons, and last year - 279 tons. Meanwhile, another major gold consumer, India, has reduced purchases by 9%, yielding the top spot to China. The main reasons for such acquisition rates of physical gold include the desire to reduce the share of the dollar in reserves and to hedge the yuan against devaluation.

Investors and the consumer sector are not lagging behind the People's Bank. For wealthy Chinese and companies, gold is a reliable way to preserve their assets. Trading volumes of gold on Chinese exchanges have risen to five-year highs. Gold imports increased by 34% ahead of the Lunar New Year in China, the peak gift-giving season.

Such strong support for the growing market is positively assessed by both speculators and metal producers.

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Gaganauts of Geopolitics believes South Asia is all set to become the new 'heartland' of the multipolar world! This is why our channel regularly monitors what's happening in the region.

*Why are there cracks in 🇮🇳🇺🇸Indo-American relationship?

*Why does India election🗳 matter for the world?

*Why is Turkey concerned about India's defense exports?

* What 🇷🇺Russian air defenses guide India's border with China?

* What is Elon Musk doing in India?

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China has unexpectedly forgiven all of Zimbabwe's debts...

...with estimates suggesting the total amount could be as high as $10 billion.

Zimbabwe is under sanctions and cannot cooperate with the IMF or the World Bank. China has eagerly filled this niche by lending and forgiving debts.

The reason is shown above. The map indicates all of China's investments and forgiven debts in Africa. China is actively becoming the continent's main trade and political partner. Considering that Africa is the only continent with a huge potential for development, these investments will likely pay off manifold in the future.

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China as the biggest beneficiary or green agenda

China has almost entirely captured the key segments in the green energy sector, as repeatedly stated by Xi Jinping. Now, green energy, not the housing market as before, is the main driver of China's economy. Accordingly, China is highly interested in promoting the "green agenda" globally.

In China itself, green energy is also setting records. In 2023, the deployment of solar photovoltaic systems in China increased by 2.5 times, reaching 261 GW. For comparison, the US saw a deployment of 32 GW, and the EU 53 GW.

In 2021, China's national carbon emission trading system began operating, initially for the power sector. In the second phase, the system will include oil refining and petrochemical industries, chemical industry, building materials production, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, and aviation. In the third phase, it will encompass all major carbon emitters. Meanwhile, the price of carbon emission permits in China's ETS is maintained at around 8 euros per ton and is expected to gradually increase.

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US will not yet impose sanctions on Chinese banks for supporting Russia - Reuters

After strong criticism from Chinese authorities, the US has softened its stance on secondary sanctions. An anonymous official mentioned that the US had preliminarily discussed measures against several Chinese banks but currently has no plan to implement them.

The official hopes that diplomacy will obviate the need for such measures. This week's visit to China by Antony Blinken might include secondary sanctions as a discussion topic.

Previously, some Chinese banks delayed transactions with Russian banks due to the fear of US secondary sanctions. However, the Chinese government has threatened a decisive response to such actions by the US.

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Unemployment expected to become India's major economic issue after the elections

Economists interviewed by Reuters highlighted other concerns like rural spending, inflation, and poverty. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in March was 7.6%. Given India's vast working-age population of around 950 million, this percentage represents a significant number of jobless individuals, comparable to the working population of Russia. The International Labour Organization found that 83% of the unemployed are aged 15 to 29. However, the Indian government reports a 3.1% unemployment rate for 2023, with a 10% rate among youth, both showing a decline.

During the ongoing elections, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party of turning the country into an "unemployment hub," citing the impact of demonetization and a flawed Goods and Services Tax regime. The opposition describes the unemployment situation as a "ticking time bomb." Supporters of the ruling party view the focus on this issue as politically motivated.

93% of India's workforce is employed in the unorganized small private sector, which operates predominantly in cash. The government's crackdown on cash transactions aims to formalize the economy. India's drive towards high-tech manufacturing increases unemployment as the industry becomes capital-intensive, labor-saving, and automated. This also leads to a reduction in labor-intensive industries like leather production. Although the government subsidizes factories that produce microchips, these do not employ a large workforce. Female employment remains low, and there is an ongoing issue of overqualified Indians, including Ph.D. holders, considering work abroad in places like Russia due to lack of suitable jobs in India.

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US still wants CZ imprisoned

The U.S. prosecutor is seeking a three-year prison sentence for Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, with the court hearing scheduled for April 30. Zhao has agreed to pay a $50 million fine.

This development is part of a broader legal agreement where Binance paid a fine of $4.3 billion to the U.S. Department of Justice.

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Russia agreed to long-term gas supplies to China at 28% discount compared to EU

However, there is a nuance: in 2023, the discount compared to the EU prices for China was 37%, with the final price for gas at $286 per thousand cubic meters.

For context, Europe was able to buy gas from Russia for $150 in 2020, and Poland had previously litigated, claiming that $200 was excessively expensive. Now, even the discounted gas for China is almost twice as expensive.

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Seems EU needs Russia's fertilizers

In February 2024, the EU purchased a record 521,000 tons of fertilizers from Russia, valued at 167 million euros, marking the highest volume since December 2022. Poland remains the largest customer, setting a new record for purchases since 2021.

Interestingly, the EU has calculated that the carbon footprint of Russian fertilizers is 60% higher than that of European-made fertilizers. However, even with the cross-border carbon levy and additional taxes, Russian fertilizers remain more cost-effective.

Mmmmmm, sanctions...

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Turkey wants to replace Ukraine

Turkey is prepared for Ukraine's potential refusal to extend its gas transit contract with Gazprom, which is set to expire at the end of 2024, according to Sinan Furat, the CEO of the Turkish oil and gas corporation TBNG. Currently, approximately 48% of Russia's gas exports to the EU pass through Ukraine, with the remaining 52% routed through Turkey.

Furat has stated that there are already plans to construct an energy hub in Turkish Thrace by mid-2024. This would potentially allow Turkey to take over the entire transit of Russian gas to the EU if necessary.

However, not everyone in Turkey shares Furat's optimism. The Department of Energy at the Independent Association of Industrialists and Businessmen in Turkey has noted that fully compensating for the transit volumes would require expanding infrastructure, a process that could take 2-3 years.

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How do you like this, Elon Musk?

The Indian startup Swaayatt Robots is developing autonomous vehicles adapted to the challenging conditions of local roads, such as cows wandering on roads, oncoming traffic, scooters, and tuk-tuks that create chaotic traffic. The lack of road markings, signs, and sometimes even roads themselves adds to the complexity.

The best part - it really works!

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The real cost of housing in Canada has moved from the "bubble" phase to the "super bubble" stage

The average cost of a standard home in 2024 will be 843,684 Canadian dollars (615,000 US dollars). However, in major cities, the price of homes is even higher: in Vancouver - 1.281 million dollars, in Toronto - 1.198 million.

Besides the previously standard reasons for the rise in housing prices in Canada – a high influx of immigrants with money and inflation – there is another one.

Today, on average across Canada, taxes and fees make up 36% of the final cost of housing, and this share is constantly increasing. At the beginning of the 2000s, it was 12-14%. Municipalities improve their budget through such levies. But the rise in prices reduces the number of transactions (in Toronto in 2023 – by 47%).

As a result, municipalities have faced a huge budget deficit, which they are forced to compensate for by raising new taxes. In Toronto, the property tax was raised by 10% immediately.

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Sri Lanka is planning to join BRICS+

This was stated by the country's ambassador to Russia, Janitha Abeywickrema Liyanage. According to the official, discussions are ongoing with a view to the nearest future—to ensure the country's transport, energy, and food security.

The population of the country is 22 million people, and new potential members of BRICS may receive invitations to the summit in Kazan this year.

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EU will not confiscate Russian assets in the way the US has, but welcomes this decision

Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, considers the US's approval of a military aid package for Ukraine, which includes the use of frozen Russian Central Bank funds, to be "good news" and a timely decision. Borrell made this statement during his speech at the plenary session of the European Parliament on Wednesday, April 23.

However, according to Borrell, the European Union is not ready to take such radical steps as asset confiscation. He emphasized that after numerous discussions and consultations, European authorities decided to use only the income generated by the Central Bank's assets, not the assets themselves, and continue to adhere to this approach.

Hm... Is it a sign of some intellect?

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