市場狀態：Normal Period - Hard Period 
本週RS強度：30% 
我的總倉位比例：少於50% 
這輪股價轉弱，核心並非單一業績，而是利率重新定價。 
Warsh表示偏軟的通膨數據，未能說服自己認為趨勢已改善，如果通膨不回落，9月會議就要準備加息。這一舉動令10年期美債孳息升到約4.79-4.80%，兩年期約4.35-4.39%，均見約19個月高位，全球長債一起沽：日債、德債、法債都見多年高位。 
[image] 
**
這對SPX影響很直接：** 
折現率的上升，最傷科技、AI、成長股。弱就業本來減低加息急迫性，但再面對伊朗再有軍事行動，油價再次上升，美油重上90美元。油價一抽，通膨預期同加息定價一齊上，科技估值或最受傷。hawkish演講＋油價，把本來按兵不動叙事打破。未來一周的非農和CPI將會非常影響未來市場走向，再決定9月是否加息。 
[image] 
​ 
...

**[Julian Komar] 
Market Indicators 📈
The Market Trend Model stays yellow for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but another move lower could quickly turn it red. Net lows appeared for two consecutive days, while the number of stocks above the MA200 dropped sharply. 
The evidence is getting weaker. Stay defensive, protect capital, and avoid raising exposure. 
[image] 
Stock Price Action 📊
Leadership is getti...

Market Commentary &Subscriber Questions September 2nd 2026 – The Roppel Report

9 2 2026 CTT Livestream - Videos Livestreams - Champion Team Trading

The indexes saw a little relief rally today but this remains pure chop. We are in a weekly up cycle but under the 10/20EMA on the daily. The time to potentially be aggressive is when both of those timeframes are in up cycles. The AI names acted better on the backs of the strong DELL report with the memory stocks in particular acting well. They remain range bound though. MU would be my main focus i...

新加入的戰友們， 
請務必留意我過往的觀察名單系列中其他股票，有很多過往已經提及的強勢股票目前仍然在升勢當中，請根據我分享的每周板塊趨勢來綜合考慮。 
每一次的觀察名單只會新增現時有新 setup 的新股票，過往已提及的股票會在每周 Podcast 和 Discord 中跟進。 

HOOD (Fintech / crypto） 
HOOD開始重新出現方向，形態收縮，可能突破上方dtl。 
My stop loss: 102.5 
[image] 

XYZ （crypto） 
早2日假突破洗走部分投資者，並且昨日低開高走，可能是上升前先兆。 
XYZ目前已形成4年底部，如果真的能突破的話，升勢可能會相當強勁。 
My stop loss: 50MA 
[image] 
[image] 

DLO （支付平台） 
跟RELY走勢相似，同樣屬於支付平台。 
日k圖中的兩個月底部，再加週k圖中...

強勢股「萬里無雲」怎樣設置止盈及預判風險報酬比？–MYT

強勢股「萬里無雲」怎樣設置止盈及預判風險報酬比？–MYT

Ahju 2026.09.02

**[Julian Komar] 
📅 Save the date: September 3rd - Member Webinar 9: Doing Research On A Company 
💬 You can submit your questions now if you can’t attend the webinar. 
[image] 
💎 Highlighted stocks:
[image] 
Symbols to copy: QMCO,TEAM,ZETA,HTFL,MRNA,GH,HL 
Look at the Daily Market Update posts for more concrete entries. 
Link to the highlighted stocks: Highlighted Stocks in FinViz 
Link for daily ...

##### J Law 股市分析(update: 3Sep2026)

##### J Law 股市分析(update: 3Sep2026)

Wednesday, September 02, 2026                 A weak start to the month of September with stocks selling off sharply   Tuesday and many following through to the downside today. The leading   indexes caught a small bounce, but growth stocks stayed under pressure, and   that means "Cash is King" in this difficult market. Meanwhile oil and energy   related stocks continue to grind higher as U.S.-Iran...

3 September 2026 | Midweek Market Brief
Midweek Pulse(Last updated: September 3, 2026)
Current Market Risk Appetite: *Neutral*

Risk-On (A market environment favorable for the long side. During periods of strong risk appetite, the focus is on understanding market narratives and favored industries, while looking for buying opportunities in leading sectors/stocks.)
Neutral (A period where more secto...

九月歷來是美股最弱月份之一。本週開局，美伊局勢再升溫、油價走高、十年期美債孳息逼近 4.8%，市場對聯儲局本月加息的押注快速升至六成以上。高息環境直接打擊長久期成長股——未來現金流折現變低，高估值被市場重新定價。如果利息繼續上升，無風險也能躺賺5%，試問還會有更多人願意在市場上冒風險嗎？ 
[image] 
中東油價與通膨預期
中東局勢升溫推高油價，增加通膨疑慮。這讓鷹派立場更有依據，也讓市場覺得聯準會更難輕易轉鴿，短線加息可能性明顯升溫，但政策仍分裂且變數仍大： 
•  川普公開反對，政治壓力存在。 
•  就業與經濟數據若轉弱，可能讓部分官員猶豫。 
•  美債市場本身 fragile，過急升息可能推高長端殖利率、加重財政負擔。 
[image] 
醫療板塊現時對市場相關性低，獨立發展
醫療是我們另一條主線。相對於軟件，它在風險偏好下降時更有防守屬性：與科技相關性較低、部分子板塊估值相...

Aug 2026 MPA videos Update 
[Image from Gyazo] 
MPA alerts

## Energy prices poised to explode based on longer-term charts 
Dear Factor Members 
Peter will be traveling through next Monday. He is not bringing his computer. If needed, he can place orders through a 24/7 live trading desk at both ADMIS and IBKR. 
Stops and target orders have been placed on all open trades. Peter has aggressively moved stops on nearly every tranche or unit (the terms are inter...

Technically a Wedge Pop back through the 10/20EMA. We still have these unfilled gaps overhead but the SPY/QQQ weeklies both look like bull flags and we clearly saw another day of strong individual stock price action depending on the name. We are now back in Weekly/Daily up cycles. Lets look at the charts. 
QQQ Weekly-Still an inside week but back at the top of the range and looks like a cup n hand...

**[Julian Komar] 
Market Indicators 📈
The Market Trend Model remains yellow for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 stays red. 
Net highs improved slightly yesterday, but we are far away from a meaningful turnaround. The same is true for stocks above the MA200. 
There is simply nothing pushing me to become more aggressive. 
Stay patient, remain mostly in cash, and wait for the market an...

昨日美聯儲突然殺個措手不及，釋出不加息態度，市場氣氛馬上轉好。 

聯儲局理事沃勒表示，近期數據終於顯示出通脹放緩的跡象，如果未來兩週的數據延續這一趨勢，他會傾向於支持把聯邦基金利率目標維持在當前的3.50%至3.75%區間。這番表態讓9月加息預期迅速降溫，美股、美債、黃金與比特幣同步走高。 

[image] 
就業增長放緩，但失業率仍處低位
從過往數據顯示，7月美國非農就業減少2.3萬人，5月和6月就業數據遭到下修，兩個月合計比此前公佈的數據少了10.3萬個崗位。連續幾個月的數據都顯示，美國招聘活動正在明顯降溫。 
Kiplinger經濟學家戴維·佩恩（David Payne）也提出，未來美國就業報告的「新常態」，可能是每月新增崗位低於10萬人，而不是過去常見的六位數增長。 
分行業看，教育、醫療保健、休閒和酒店業以及建築業就業有所增長，製造業崗位下降最明顯。雖然ADP數據與官方非農就...

2026-09-04  - Q&A Session - MR & BH