You can't make this sh- up 💩
At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.
This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.
Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway.
By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap.
That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes.
Market manipulation at its finest? (Credits to KobeissiLetter)
At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.
This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.
Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway.
By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap.
That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes.
Market manipulation at its finest? (Credits to KobeissiLetter)
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Netanyahu says he’ll continue attacking Iran 🤡🤡🤡:
Earlier today, I spoke with our friend President Trump.
President Trump believes that there is an opportunity to leverage the great achievements of the IDF and the US military to realize the goals of the war in an agreement, an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests.
In parallel, we continue to attack both in Iran and Lebanon.
We are methodically dismantling the missile program and the nuclear program and continue to hit Hezbollah hard.
Just a few days ago, we eliminated two more nuclear scientists and the hand is still outstretched.
We will safeguard our vital interests in any agreement.
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Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee:
The war will continue until all damages are compensated, all economic sanctions are lifted, and a guarantee is obtained that the United States will not interfere in Iran’s affairs.
This is the decision of our nation, our leader, and our armed forces. (Credits: Clash Report)
Looks like the war is still raging on ...👀
The war will continue until all damages are compensated, all economic sanctions are lifted, and a guarantee is obtained that the United States will not interfere in Iran’s affairs.
This is the decision of our nation, our leader, and our armed forces. (Credits: Clash Report)
Looks like the war is still raging on ...
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Iran has laid out five key conditions for negotiations to proceed:
1) Complete cessation of "aggression and killings" by adversaries.
2) Establishment of specific mechanisms to ensure the war does not resume against the Islamic Republic.
3) Guaranteed and clearly defined compensation for military damages and reparations.
4) Conclusion of the war on all fronts and for all resistance groups involved in the region.
5) Assertion of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
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🛢 Chevron Warns California Risks Fuel Crisis Unless Iran War Eases 💥
Chevron issued a stark warning that California is “careening toward an energy crisis” due to the combined pressures of the Iran war and aggressive state regulations.
Because California is disconnected from most US pipeline hubs, it relies on Asia for 20% of its refined fuels, a supply line now threatened as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forces Asian nations to hoard their own dwindling stocks.
Chevron’s refining head, Andy Walz, stated that the company may cease refining operations in the state within a decade unless officials declare an “energy emergency” and roll back climate taxes and regulations, which Chevron estimates could cost them $500 million over the next five years.
With gasoline prices in the state already nearing $6 a gallon, the situation has become a political flashpoint between Governor Gavin Newsom’s office and the Trump administration.
Chevron is currently taking the unusual and expensive step of shipping oil from the Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal to keep its West Coast refineries running as Middle Eastern shipments remain idle.
Chevron issued a stark warning that California is “careening toward an energy crisis” due to the combined pressures of the Iran war and aggressive state regulations.
Because California is disconnected from most US pipeline hubs, it relies on Asia for 20% of its refined fuels, a supply line now threatened as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forces Asian nations to hoard their own dwindling stocks.
Chevron’s refining head, Andy Walz, stated that the company may cease refining operations in the state within a decade unless officials declare an “energy emergency” and roll back climate taxes and regulations, which Chevron estimates could cost them $500 million over the next five years.
With gasoline prices in the state already nearing $6 a gallon, the situation has become a political flashpoint between Governor Gavin Newsom’s office and the Trump administration.
Chevron is currently taking the unusual and expensive step of shipping oil from the Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal to keep its West Coast refineries running as Middle Eastern shipments remain idle.
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🇺🇸 Forecast Ahead (Events to Look Out For!) 🚨
Mar 30 - Jerome Powell Speech
- Markets move heavily based on Fed tone (hawkish vs dovish)
- Even wording changes can shift interest rate expectations
Apr 1 - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Leading indicator of economic strength
- Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction
- Strong influence on recession expectations
Apr 3 - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- The single most important monthly US data point
- Drives: USD, stocks, bonds
- Includes:
1. Jobs added (56K forecast)
2. Unemployment rate (4.4%)
3. Wage growth
Big surprises = big market volatility
Mar 30 - Jerome Powell Speech
- Markets move heavily based on Fed tone (hawkish vs dovish)
- Even wording changes can shift interest rate expectations
Apr 1 - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Leading indicator of economic strength
- Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction
- Strong influence on recession expectations
Apr 3 - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- The single most important monthly US data point
- Drives: USD, stocks, bonds
- Includes:
1. Jobs added (56K forecast)
2. Unemployment rate (4.4%)
3. Wage growth
Big surprises = big market volatility
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NEW: The UAE hikes fuel prices, with sharp increases of 30% to 70%.
📈 March Market Round Up 📉
🛢️ Brent Surges 63% in March — Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1988 as Hormuz Stays Shut
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/oil-price-today-wti-brent-trump-energy-sites-water-war-escalation-deal.html
🚢 Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed — Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
🏦 Fed Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75%; Signals Only One Cut in 2026 as Iran War Clouds Inflation Outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html
📉 S&P 500 Falls 5.3% in March — Worst Monthly Performance Since 2022; Nasdaq Down 4.8%, Dow Snaps 10-Month Winning Streak
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
🥇 Gold Corrects from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,578 by Month-End as Risk Sentiment Whipsaws on Ceasefire Rumours
https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-03-31-2026/
🏗️ Aluminium Hits 4-Year High of $3,500/tonne After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Smelters
https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-30-geopolitical-shockwaves-iranian-attacks-on-middle-east-smelters-send-aluminum-prices-to-4-year-highs-us-producers-surge
⚡ OECD Cuts Global Growth Outlook, Raises G20 Inflation Forecast to 4.0% on Energy Shock
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en.html
📊 S&P Global Raises Brent Forecast to $90/bbl for March; Warns of Persistent Disruptions
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/global-economic-outlook-march-2026
🇺🇸 Moody's AI Recession Model Hits 49% — One Tick Below Threshold That's Historically Always Preceded a Recession
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/28/stock-market-crash-in-2026-the-sp-500-sounds-an-al/
🇸🇬 MAS Poised to Tighten Policy as Import Inflation Builds — Petrol Up ~20%, Diesel Up ~40% in March
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/singapore-tighten-policy-over-inflation-risks-economists-say
🇸🇬 STI Breaks Above 5,000 Points for First Time Ever in March Before Pulling Back on Global Volatility
https://www.minichart.com.sg/2026/03/13/singapore-market-update-march-2026-sgx-hits-record-highs-key-stock-picks-institutional-fund-flows/
🛢️ Brent Surges 63% in March — Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1988 as Hormuz Stays Shut
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/oil-price-today-wti-brent-trump-energy-sites-water-war-escalation-deal.html
🚢 Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed — Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
🏦 Fed Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75%; Signals Only One Cut in 2026 as Iran War Clouds Inflation Outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html
📉 S&P 500 Falls 5.3% in March — Worst Monthly Performance Since 2022; Nasdaq Down 4.8%, Dow Snaps 10-Month Winning Streak
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
🥇 Gold Corrects from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,578 by Month-End as Risk Sentiment Whipsaws on Ceasefire Rumours
https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-03-31-2026/
🏗️ Aluminium Hits 4-Year High of $3,500/tonne After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Smelters
https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-30-geopolitical-shockwaves-iranian-attacks-on-middle-east-smelters-send-aluminum-prices-to-4-year-highs-us-producers-surge
⚡ OECD Cuts Global Growth Outlook, Raises G20 Inflation Forecast to 4.0% on Energy Shock
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en.html
📊 S&P Global Raises Brent Forecast to $90/bbl for March; Warns of Persistent Disruptions
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/global-economic-outlook-march-2026
🇺🇸 Moody's AI Recession Model Hits 49% — One Tick Below Threshold That's Historically Always Preceded a Recession
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/28/stock-market-crash-in-2026-the-sp-500-sounds-an-al/
🇸🇬 MAS Poised to Tighten Policy as Import Inflation Builds — Petrol Up ~20%, Diesel Up ~40% in March
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/singapore-tighten-policy-over-inflation-risks-economists-say
🇸🇬 STI Breaks Above 5,000 Points for First Time Ever in March Before Pulling Back on Global Volatility
https://www.minichart.com.sg/2026/03/13/singapore-market-update-march-2026-sgx-hits-record-highs-key-stock-picks-institutional-fund-flows/
CNBC
Brent oil price surges more than 60% in March, biggest monthly gain dating back to 1988
Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran are open to ending the war.
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The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, halting the six-week-old military campaign in exchange for the “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump announced the deal on Tuesday, narrowly averting an 8 p.m. deadline for a massive bombardment of Iranian civilian infrastructure.
Mediated by Pakistan, the agreement allows Iran’s military to coordinate safe passage through the vital waterway while both sides suspend offensive operations.
While oil prices immediately slumped from record highs of $144.42 per barrel, experts warn that the underlying issues, including Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, remain entirely unresolved.
The ceasefire marks a significant de-escalation from Trump’s earlier rhetoric, which suggested a total destruction of Iranian civilization. However, critics and some Republican allies, including Senator Lindsey Graham, caution that the deal may reward Iran for its ‘hostile act’ of closing the strait in the first place.
The litmus test for the agreement will be whether international ship owners actually trust the coordination with Iranian forces enough to resume transit.
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🇺🇸 Labor Force Shrinkage: Participation Hits 50-Year Lows 📉
Despite robust job growth in March, the U.S. labor-force participation rate has slipped to 61.9%, its lowest level since 1977 (excluding the pandemic).
This decline is being driven primarily by the accelerated aging of the Baby Boomer generation and a significant “immigration shock” resulting from the Trump administration’s deportation and restriction policies.
Economists are particularly concerned about the 55-and-over demographic, whose participation has dropped to a 20-year low of 37.2%, partly due to workers opting for early retirement to avoid AI-driven workplace changes.
While strong productivity growth has so far masked the impact of a shrinking workforce, experts warn that a smaller pool of workers will inevitably lead to slower long-run economic growth and persistent labor shortages.
On a more resilient note, the participation rate for “prime-age” workers (25 to 54) remains near multidecade highs.
Despite robust job growth in March, the U.S. labor-force participation rate has slipped to 61.9%, its lowest level since 1977 (excluding the pandemic).
This decline is being driven primarily by the accelerated aging of the Baby Boomer generation and a significant “immigration shock” resulting from the Trump administration’s deportation and restriction policies.
Economists are particularly concerned about the 55-and-over demographic, whose participation has dropped to a 20-year low of 37.2%, partly due to workers opting for early retirement to avoid AI-driven workplace changes.
While strong productivity growth has so far masked the impact of a shrinking workforce, experts warn that a smaller pool of workers will inevitably lead to slower long-run economic growth and persistent labor shortages.
On a more resilient note, the participation rate for “prime-age” workers (25 to 54) remains near multidecade highs.
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The Strait of Hormuz may be included in the U.S.–Iran cease-fire, but in practice it’s still barely functioning.
No oil or gas tankers have passed through since the agreement, and only a handful of cargo ships have crossed.
Even where passage might be possible, most shipping companies remain cautious and are avoiding the route.
Source: NYT
Shut out of U.S.–Iran peace talks, Israel is heavily striking Lebanon.
At least 254 people have been killed and over 1,000 wounded, with some estimates putting the death toll closer to 300 just since yesterday.
By relentlessly attacking Lebanon without distinguishing between military and civilian targets, Israel seems to be deliberately trying to force Iran to retaliate and become the party that violates the ceasefire.