We are now in the modern age of BTC.
Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.
Futures markets.
If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.
You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.
Together you have made a synthetic BTC.
Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.
Futures markets.
If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.
You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.
Together you have made a synthetic BTC.
That would-be demand for BTC gets diverted to paper BTC, fulfilled by counter traders who have no BTC to sell, they just have USD to back their bet.
In the old days, BTC would go on an exponential run because the only sellers was a trickle from the OGs and an even smaller amount from miners with their newly mined coins.
Today the magic of paper BTC is what you want to watch.
In the old days, BTC would go on an exponential run because the only sellers was a trickle from the OGs and an even smaller amount from miners with their newly mined coins.
Today the magic of paper BTC is what you want to watch.
So... not a great idea to look solely at ETF buying.
On-chain data... derivatives data... technical price action...
All of these add to the demand and supply picture.
Putting it together is an art, not a quantifiable science.
Everyone is just making educated guesses.
On-chain data... derivatives data... technical price action...
All of these add to the demand and supply picture.
Putting it together is an art, not a quantifiable science.
Everyone is just making educated guesses.
For more than a decade, Bitcoin and Altcoins have run along parallel tracks
We are at a point in time where those tracks start to split off
On a long time horizon, one can go one direction and the other the opposite
We are at a point in time where those tracks start to split off
On a long time horizon, one can go one direction and the other the opposite
Mining
In June 2019, #ALT / #BTC pairs capitulated to the range lows just before the Fed cut interest rates. We find ourselves at a similar spot in June 2024.
Wouldn't short altcoins down here.
Many are hitting local breakdown targets.
Might get a mini bounce here.
Long term though. 90% of top 200 #alts are going to zero
Many are hitting local breakdown targets.
Might get a mini bounce here.
Long term though. 90% of top 200 #alts are going to zero
#altcoins #crypto
We now have 5.7 times the amount of crypto tokens than we did during peak bull in 2021.
This is a big problem. And is one of the major reasons why crypto has been struggling this year, despite $BTC hitting new ATHs.
The more tokens that launch, the more cumulative supply pressure on the market.
And this supply pressure "stacks".
Many projects from 2021 are still unlocking, with supply "stacking" across every subsequent year (2022, 2023, 2024).
Current estimates suggest there is around $150m-$200m of new supply pressure per day.
This constant sell pressure takes a huge toll on the market.
Not enough new liquidity entering the market, and
An insane amount of dilution/sell pressure from unlocks
We now have 5.7 times the amount of crypto tokens than we did during peak bull in 2021.
This is a big problem. And is one of the major reasons why crypto has been struggling this year, despite $BTC hitting new ATHs.
The more tokens that launch, the more cumulative supply pressure on the market.
And this supply pressure "stacks".
Many projects from 2021 are still unlocking, with supply "stacking" across every subsequent year (2022, 2023, 2024).
Current estimates suggest there is around $150m-$200m of new supply pressure per day.
This constant sell pressure takes a huge toll on the market.
Not enough new liquidity entering the market, and
An insane amount of dilution/sell pressure from unlocks
The last 3 months have been like a mini-bear market for many alts. From March local highs:
$AEVO: -88%
$MAVIA: -84%
$DYM: -83%
$WEN: -81%
$SATS: -81%
$WLD: -79%
$PYTH: -77%
$ALT: -76%
$STRK: -75%
$DYDX: -74%
$AEVO: -88%
$MAVIA: -84%
$DYM: -83%
$WEN: -81%
$SATS: -81%
$WLD: -79%
$PYTH: -77%
$ALT: -76%
$STRK: -75%
$DYDX: -74%
If you are wondering why the market is dumping so hard today, it’s because MTGOX trustee announced today that it will start $BTC and Bitcoin cash repayments in July.
As you remember, MTGOX was hacked many years ago and billions in $BTC were stolen from the platform. Now, they will start sending back some of the $BTC and people fear that those old holders will sell most of them.
As you remember, MTGOX was hacked many years ago and billions in $BTC were stolen from the platform. Now, they will start sending back some of the $BTC and people fear that those old holders will sell most of them.
Bitcoin dips below 60k. All US miners are now in the red. They have to continue selling all $BTC to make ends meet. This is the worst case scenario we described in March. because of miner centralization, their actions and economic planning have an outsized effect on the price of bitcoin.
What’s more. All ETF buyers are now sitting in losses. Wait for them to capitulate and we ‘ll revisit 48k easily
🩸 #bloodinthestreet
By late August/September job losses will mount rapidly and the Fed will start cutting rates into dramatically deteriorating economy. Contrary to expectations stocks will not rally but the AI dream valuations will finally burst.
💥 Markets are always right.
What’s more. All ETF buyers are now sitting in losses. Wait for them to capitulate and we ‘ll revisit 48k easily
🩸 #bloodinthestreet
By late August/September job losses will mount rapidly and the Fed will start cutting rates into dramatically deteriorating economy. Contrary to expectations stocks will not rally but the AI dream valuations will finally burst.
💥 Markets are always right.
Confirmed true by Reuters
Under Japanese Law aka like FTX, Mt Gox creditors will get $483 per Bitcoin in Bitcoin. Thats 0.008 $BTC per $BTC held at the time. The $9b becomes only $72 million paid to customers.
Thoughts: Now will the exchange, the attorneys, the government of Japan, keep the remaining Bitcoin? Will this save the Yen?
This is the worst possible outcome for both creditors and current investors. Creditors get raked and Japan will likely do exactly what Germany and US are doing. That means a majority of this $9b hits markets. Not good.
Under Japanese Law aka like FTX, Mt Gox creditors will get $483 per Bitcoin in Bitcoin. Thats 0.008 $BTC per $BTC held at the time. The $9b becomes only $72 million paid to customers.
Thoughts: Now will the exchange, the attorneys, the government of Japan, keep the remaining Bitcoin? Will this save the Yen?
This is the worst possible outcome for both creditors and current investors. Creditors get raked and Japan will likely do exactly what Germany and US are doing. That means a majority of this $9b hits markets. Not good.
Aptos Foundation Proposes Deployment of Aave V3 on Aptos Mainnet
According to Odaily, the Aptos Foundation has proposed a temperature check to deploy Aave V3 on the Aptos mainnet. Currently, Aptos is gathering feedback from the Aave governance community to further advance subsequent work.
The proposal is in its early stages, and the foundation is actively seeking input from the Aave community. The feedback will be instrumental in shaping the future direction of the project and ensuring its successful implementation.
The deployment of Aave V3 on the Aptos mainnet, if approved, could bring significant changes to the platform. However, the specifics of these changes and their potential impact are yet to be determined. The Aptos Foundation is committed to maintaining transparency throughout the process and will continue to update the community as the proposal progresses.
According to Odaily, the Aptos Foundation has proposed a temperature check to deploy Aave V3 on the Aptos mainnet. Currently, Aptos is gathering feedback from the Aave governance community to further advance subsequent work.
The proposal is in its early stages, and the foundation is actively seeking input from the Aave community. The feedback will be instrumental in shaping the future direction of the project and ensuring its successful implementation.
The deployment of Aave V3 on the Aptos mainnet, if approved, could bring significant changes to the platform. However, the specifics of these changes and their potential impact are yet to be determined. The Aptos Foundation is committed to maintaining transparency throughout the process and will continue to update the community as the proposal progresses.