Spot #Bitcoin  ETFs see $886.6M of inflows Tuesday, helping to drive price above $71k.

~$300m liquidated in the past hour, mostly illiquid altcoins.

#BTC was rejected at $72k and dropped by just 4%. Altcoins saw a massive capitulation of 10-15%.

So far, BTC has failed 4 times to break above $72k. The 5th attempt will break it and run towards $77k - $82k.

Overall, #Bitcoin is Bullish 🚀 as long as there is no daily candle closing below $66.6k.

In June 2019, #ALT / #BTC  pairs capitulated to the range lows just before the Fed cut interest rates.

We find ourselves at a similar spot in June 2024.

#Ethereum is one of the most bullish Altcoins long term. It's already trading above the previous yearly high.

#Bitcoin 

Bullish re-accumulation scenario is still in play as long as $BTC maintains above $66,000 support.

Below that support and we shift our focus to lower levels.

ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin  market works.

First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold.

We are now in the modern age of BTC.

Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.

Futures markets.

If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.

You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.

Together you have made a synthetic BTC.

That would-be demand for BTC gets diverted to paper BTC, fulfilled by counter traders who have no BTC to sell, they just have USD to back their bet.

In the old days, BTC would go on an exponential run because the only sellers was a trickle from the OGs and an even smaller amount from miners with their newly mined coins.

Today the magic of paper BTC is what you want to watch.

The 2022 bear market was dictated by a flood of paper BTC when spot holders didn't really sell.

In this current bull, I have marked where paper increased, these were times when price didn't rally.

We are in one of these right now.

So... not a great idea to look solely at ETF buying.

On-chain data... derivatives data... technical price action...

All of these add to the demand and supply picture.

Putting it together is an art, not a quantifiable science.

Everyone is just making educated guesses.

What an unbelievable stat: according to a recent report by Chainalysis, ~4% of Turkey's GDP is going to stablecoin purchases. Turkey is among the Top 20 economies globally by GDP.

For more than a decade, Bitcoin and Altcoins have run along parallel tracks

We are at a point in time where those tracks start to split off

On a long time horizon, one can go one direction and the other the opposite

Wouldn't short altcoins down here.

Many are hitting local breakdown targets.

Might get a mini bounce here.

Long term though. 90% of top 200 #alts are going to zero

#altcoins #crypto

We now have 5.7 times the amount of crypto tokens than we did during peak bull in 2021.

This is a big problem. And is one of the major reasons why crypto has been struggling this year, despite $BTC hitting new ATHs.

The more tokens that launch, the more cumulative supply pressure on the market.

And this supply pressure "stacks".

Many projects from 2021 are still unlocking, with supply "stacking" across every subsequent year (2022, 2023, 2024).

Current estimates suggest there is around $150m-$200m of new supply pressure per day.

This constant sell pressure takes a huge toll on the market.

Not enough new liquidity entering the market, and
An insane amount of dilution/sell pressure from unlocks

The last 3 months have been like a mini-bear market for many alts. From March local highs:

$AEVO: -88%
$MAVIA: -84%
$DYM: -83%
$WEN: -81%
$SATS: -81%
$WLD: -79%
$PYTH: -77%
$ALT: -76%
$STRK: -75%
$DYDX: -74%