Bloomberg: Several traders have asked how the dollar can remain so resilient amid such a shortfall and the exploding debt burden it implies. The answer lies in an analysis of cost of servicing the U.S. debt burden -- which has fallen significantly over the last two months as the decline on U.S. yields dominates the debt increase seen so far.
Those last two words are important -- the fiscal stimulus promised and the issuance schedule indicated by the Treasury will result in the debt pile sustaining a rapid growth rate. Meanwhile, yields are not only running out of room to fall, but there’s a risk they instead rocket higher at some point. In such an environment, we’d quickly enter a world where rising U.S. yields are a net negative for the dollar, rather than a pillar of support, as the cost of servicing the U.S. debt enters a self-feeding spiral. But such a world is several months away at least.
Those last two words are important -- the fiscal stimulus promised and the issuance schedule indicated by the Treasury will result in the debt pile sustaining a rapid growth rate. Meanwhile, yields are not only running out of room to fall, but there’s a risk they instead rocket higher at some point. In such an environment, we’d quickly enter a world where rising U.S. yields are a net negative for the dollar, rather than a pillar of support, as the cost of servicing the U.S. debt enters a self-feeding spiral. But such a world is several months away at least.
我觉得优质的tech公司现在超卖.优质的consumer和real estate打算长期持有的话也可以考虑.industrials和银行即使反弹涨的也乏力...
Bloomberg: U.S. stocks are down for a second consecutive session, putting the S&P 500 on pace for its worst two-day slide in about three weeks. Making this interesting, however, is the fact that haven assets aren’t “confirming” the degree of the sell-off in stocks. In fact, the yen, bonds and gold are up much less than the S&P 500 is down. This may suggest that there won’t be an acceleration of selling into the close and equities could be sailing into calmer waters for the rest of the week.
Bloomberg: I’ve made a lot out of the fact that over the past few weeks the bulk of trading gains in the SPX have come from overnight gaps, but in aggregate the intraday price action has still shown gains since the closing low. Moreover, for the five weeks after the low, there weren’t really any substantial intraday drawdowns. Tracking just the intraday returns of the SPX using 30-minute snapshots, the maximum drawdown in cumulative returns during regular trading hours from March 24 through the end of April was just under 4%. The SPX has fallen by more than that during the cash market session since 3 p.m. on Monday.