机构的仓位一般比较大,离场的成本market impact cost比较高.不少机构依然不敢上车买个股,但他们会考虑ETF,因为ETF的交易成本很低,离场相对比较容易.不少ETF交易量这几周大幅度上升,尤其是诸如QQQ SPY XLE等非常liquid的ETF. #stocktalk
美股竞价机制 注意现在NYSE Floor关了没有d-Quote了
https://bit.ly/2xmAXls
https://bit.ly/2xmAXls
semiGeek
收盘竞价机制
this post is one of series posts(coming soon) about Closing Auction and Strategy On Closing
美股频道 Stock USA
不少人问我为什么月底一两天我觉得可能会很短暂的跌.主要是因为不少大基金要卖股票换钱.引用WSJ:Institutions must make cash distributions regularly to pension beneficiaries, with the end of the month being a popular date for payments. During the last eight days of the month, and most heavily during the…
跌到下周三应该差不多,但可能会回来的更早.月底rebalance属于正常的市场现象,月中也有.
我为什么不建议做空大盘？因为做空的时机很难把握,做空比做多更难. Positive autocorrelation is stronger than negative autocorrelation for stock market. Also volatility is mean-reverting. #stocktalk
接下来涨不涨？我看这个几个数字,
1) Personal Saving Rate. 创新高13%的Personal Saving Rate说明美国消费者Has ability to spend but not sure about willingness. 要看接下来四月的数据了.
2) 五万亿计划史无前例
3) 美联储QE没有停
所以我五月中之前依然看涨.五月中后不一定看跌,但我比较担心的是
1) 高股息公司cut dividends
2) 刺激减少
#stocktalk
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
1) Personal Saving Rate. 创新高13%的Personal Saving Rate说明美国消费者Has ability to spend but not sure about willingness. 要看接下来四月的数据了.
2) 五万亿计划史无前例
3) 美联储QE没有停
所以我五月中之前依然看涨.五月中后不一定看跌,但我比较担心的是
1) 高股息公司cut dividends
2) 刺激减少
#stocktalk
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
fred.stlouisfed.org
FRED Economic Data
Personal Saving Rate
日内交易bid ask价差很重要.但市场觉得风险上升时,买卖价差会以指数倍上升.价差的增大或加剧卖的成本,导致sell off.所以日内风险监控我看bid ask spread. #stocktalk
Tech超卖,Financials/Real Estate超买.Tech不少公司财报不错,也有可持续增长的潜力.Financials可能会stop buyback/cut dividends.Real Estate复工恢复速度还不确定.
想买复工概念股长期持有的话,short interest降低超过两位数,day-to-cover小于2,short interest % of float 小于10%方可入场. #stocktalk
虽说我觉得航空公司股票被高估,短时间会比较萎靡,但我不觉得这次会有大的美国航空公司破产.原因如下:
1) 美国的航空公司机队偏老,新飞机订单可以取消
2)美国的航空公司大量利润来源于国内航班,国际航班取消打击相对较小
3) 美国的航空公司因为飞机多,产业链成熟,运营成本相对较低
4) 美国的航空公司可以卖里程换取大量现金
5) 政府救助
Evercore的1美元目标价也太低了,我对AAL的Fair Value是3美元. 现在股价是Fair Value三倍.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/american-air-stock-price-target-falls-to-just-a-buck-at-evercore
1) 美国的航空公司机队偏老,新飞机订单可以取消
2)美国的航空公司大量利润来源于国内航班,国际航班取消打击相对较小
3) 美国的航空公司因为飞机多,产业链成熟,运营成本相对较低
4) 美国的航空公司可以卖里程换取大量现金
5) 政府救助
Evercore的1美元目标价也太低了,我对AAL的Fair Value是3美元. 现在股价是Fair Value三倍.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/american-air-stock-price-target-falls-to-just-a-buck-at-evercore
Bloomberg.com
American Air’s $1 Price Target at Evercore Implies 92% Collapse
American Airlines Group Inc. received a big blow from Wall Street on Friday as Evercore ISI analyst Duane Pfennigwerth slashed his price target on the Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier to $1 from $10.
买邮轮股不如买迪斯尼.迪斯尼也有邮轮,还比别家的邮轮贵. 长期看好迪斯尼.
https://www.cnet.com/news/when-disneyland-and-disney-world-might-reopen-following-covid-19-closures/
https://www.cnet.com/news/when-disneyland-and-disney-world-might-reopen-following-covid-19-closures/
CNET
When Disneyland and Disney World might reopen following COVID-19 closures
Pictures and video have emerged from Shanghai Disneyland's reopening, while Disney World begins taking reservations for visits starting July 1.