Morning Bites
📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 1.5% YoY in July, at 5.6mnt, following flat YoY growth in June. In 7mo26, output was broadly unchanged YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 4.5% YoY in July to 2.1mnt, following the 2.3% YoY decrease in June. 7mo26 production rose 2.4% YoY. We maintain our bullish view on copper, supported by persistent supply-side constraints, including limited mine supply growth, declining ore grades and operational disruptions, along with growing grid investment in China and strong global demand. China accounts for approximately 55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 1.5% YoY in July, at 5.6mnt, following flat YoY growth in June. In 7mo26, output was broadly unchanged YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 4.5% YoY in July to 2.1mnt, following the 2.3% YoY decrease in June. 7mo26 production rose 2.4% YoY. We maintain our bullish view on copper, supported by persistent supply-side constraints, including limited mine supply growth, declining ore grades and operational disruptions, along with growing grid investment in China and strong global demand. China accounts for approximately 55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥈Global ETFs bought 14mnoz net of silver in August, following the inflow of 5mnoz net in July, per funds data. The net purchase accounted for ~15% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms, which underpinned the elevated price volatility. Overall, in 8mo26, global ETFs sold 64mnoz net (8% of global Ag demand in annualised terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China will further support the silver market, where the physical deficit reached 4% of global Ag consumption in 2025. In the medium-term, we see ~USD 65/oz as a fundamentally reasonable level, but concede that high volatility in Ag prices mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
🥈Global ETFs bought 14mnoz net of silver in August, following the inflow of 5mnoz net in July, per funds data. The net purchase accounted for ~15% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms, which underpinned the elevated price volatility. Overall, in 8mo26, global ETFs sold 64mnoz net (8% of global Ag demand in annualised terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China will further support the silver market, where the physical deficit reached 4% of global Ag consumption in 2025. In the medium-term, we see ~USD 65/oz as a fundamentally reasonable level, but concede that high volatility in Ag prices mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output decreased 9% YoY in July, vs. the 5% YoY increase in June, per the INE data. The drop in output was primarily due to severe snowfalls and adverse weather conditions in northern Chile, which disrupted mining and processing activities. The impact was compounded by scheduled maintenance at major operations, while longer term production remains constrained by declining ore grades and broader operational challenges. In 7mo26, output was still down 7% YoY
Considering the negative dynamics in Chilean production (~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has revised its 2026 output forecast down to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from 5.6mnt previously (+4% YoY). Its 2027 supply outlook has also been reduced 8%, to 5.5mnt. Given the production dynamics, we think this new guidance is overly upbeat and see room for some underperformance
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output decreased 9% YoY in July, vs. the 5% YoY increase in June, per the INE data. The drop in output was primarily due to severe snowfalls and adverse weather conditions in northern Chile, which disrupted mining and processing activities. The impact was compounded by scheduled maintenance at major operations, while longer term production remains constrained by declining ore grades and broader operational challenges. In 7mo26, output was still down 7% YoY
Considering the negative dynamics in Chilean production (~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has revised its 2026 output forecast down to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from 5.6mnt previously (+4% YoY). Its 2027 supply outlook has also been reduced 8%, to 5.5mnt. Given the production dynamics, we think this new guidance is overly upbeat and see room for some underperformance
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in August. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (vs. 51.9 in July), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.6 (vs. 55.6 earlier), primarily due to a slowdown in new orders and weaker employment growth
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China increased to 49.8 (from 49.2 a month ago). The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI also improved to 51.5 (vs. 50.9 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was at 52.8 (down from 53.5 a month ago), as output and new orders expanded at their slowest pace since August 2021 amid softer demand and challenging market conditions. Manufacturing employment also declined for the first time in two-and-a-half years
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in western economies remained above 50.0, which could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs improved in August, although the official NBS index remained below 50.0. Meanwhile, the United States remains the standout with robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in August. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (vs. 51.9 in July), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.6 (vs. 55.6 earlier), primarily due to a slowdown in new orders and weaker employment growth
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China increased to 49.8 (from 49.2 a month ago). The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI also improved to 51.5 (vs. 50.9 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was at 52.8 (down from 53.5 a month ago), as output and new orders expanded at their slowest pace since August 2021 amid softer demand and challenging market conditions. Manufacturing employment also declined for the first time in two-and-a-half years
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in western economies remained above 50.0, which could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs improved in August, although the official NBS index remained below 50.0. Meanwhile, the United States remains the standout with robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 20% YoY in July, matching the pace of growth reported in June, per government data. Rapaport attributed the strength in local sales to continued economic expansion, rising household incomes and stable labor-market conditions, which have helped to sustain consumer confidence
However, we remain cautious on the prospects for a broader recovery in the global diamond market in 2026. The pending sale or spinoff of De Beers by Anglo American leaves the company’s future strategy and approach to supply discipline uncertain until the transaction is completed. A sustained market recovery is therefore unlikely before the ownership situation is resolved, while restoring market discipline and pricing power could take several years
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 20% YoY in July, matching the pace of growth reported in June, per government data. Rapaport attributed the strength in local sales to continued economic expansion, rising household incomes and stable labor-market conditions, which have helped to sustain consumer confidence
However, we remain cautious on the prospects for a broader recovery in the global diamond market in 2026. The pending sale or spinoff of De Beers by Anglo American leaves the company’s future strategy and approach to supply discipline uncertain until the transaction is completed. A sustained market recovery is therefore unlikely before the ownership situation is resolved, while restoring market discipline and pricing power could take several years
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏦Global central banks purchased 23t (net) of gold in July, vs. the revised 52t (net) in June, according to World Gold Council data. The major buyers in July were China (+20t) and Poland (+8t), which outweighed sales by Russia (-6t) and Turkey (-1t)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade far above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,600/oz in 2Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Furthermore, a recent WGC survey indicates that a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months
#gold
🏦Global central banks purchased 23t (net) of gold in July, vs. the revised 52t (net) in June, according to World Gold Council data. The major buyers in July were China (+20t) and Poland (+8t), which outweighed sales by Russia (-6t) and Turkey (-1t)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade far above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,600/oz in 2Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Furthermore, a recent WGC survey indicates that a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months
#gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August fell to 1.885mnt, down 4.1% from the previous ten days, and 3.2% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.4% YTD (through 31 August). Meanwhile, local steel inventories dropped 11.3% over the period, though remained 8.5% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to gradually tighten supply. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China could potentially introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed). Such measures would likely accelerate market rebalancing relative to a scenario of gradual production cuts
For instance, Beijing has recently imposed a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August fell to 1.885mnt, down 4.1% from the previous ten days, and 3.2% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.4% YTD (through 31 August). Meanwhile, local steel inventories dropped 11.3% over the period, though remained 8.5% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to gradually tighten supply. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China could potentially introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed). Such measures would likely accelerate market rebalancing relative to a scenario of gradual production cuts
For instance, Beijing has recently imposed a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in August, accelerating from the 3% YoY gain in July. On a 8mo26 basis, net exports were still down 3% YoY. Although China aims to further reduce “excessive” steel output in 2026 (which was also 4% lower YoY in 2025), net exports remain at historical highs (after the 25% and 8% YoY growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively). The current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts; however, we believe that further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 2% YoY in August, vs. 21% increase in July. The decline was partly driven by elevated coal prices and a high base from August 2025, while import volumes remained elevated compared to historical levels
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in August, accelerating from the 3% YoY gain in July. On a 8mo26 basis, net exports were still down 3% YoY. Although China aims to further reduce “excessive” steel output in 2026 (which was also 4% lower YoY in 2025), net exports remain at historical highs (after the 25% and 8% YoY growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively). The current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts; however, we believe that further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 2% YoY in August, vs. 21% increase in July. The decline was partly driven by elevated coal prices and a high base from August 2025, while import volumes remained elevated compared to historical levels
#coal #steel
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in August, including domestic and export deliveries, following a 14% YoY increase in July, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales grew 4% YoY, but remained 35% below July 2021 levels
Although China’s property sector remains in a deep downturn, strong domestic excavators sales (+17% YoY in 8mo26) suggest a moderately positive outlook for a recovery in local construction activity, if the dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 3% YoY in 7mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in August, including domestic and export deliveries, following a 14% YoY increase in July, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales grew 4% YoY, but remained 35% below July 2021 levels
Although China’s property sector remains in a deep downturn, strong domestic excavators sales (+17% YoY in 8mo26) suggest a moderately positive outlook for a recovery in local construction activity, if the dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 3% YoY in 7mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
Morning Bites
📈Gold-backed ETFs bought 121t of gold net in August, after the 23t net purchase in July, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were mainly concentrated in North America (+53t) and Europe (+54t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 1105t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade far above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,600/oz in 2Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Despite the market’s uncertainty around future US Federal reserve monetary decisions (which has been weighing on gold prices recently), we do not expect any meaningful tightening in September, which might improve sentiment on the gold market
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs bought 121t of gold net in August, after the 23t net purchase in July, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were mainly concentrated in North America (+53t) and Europe (+54t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 1105t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade far above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,600/oz in 2Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Despite the market’s uncertainty around future US Federal reserve monetary decisions (which has been weighing on gold prices recently), we do not expect any meaningful tightening in September, which might improve sentiment on the gold market
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 6% YoY in August, vs. the 5% YoY gain in July. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (23% lower than August 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 27% beneath their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 22% and 32% lower than in the same month in 2019, respectively. Meanwhile, the UK’s figure increased 2% vs. the August 2019 level, while Spain's was 8% lower
Given these five countries represent more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 6% YoY in August, vs. the 5% YoY gain in July. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (23% lower than August 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 27% beneath their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 22% and 32% lower than in the same month in 2019, respectively. Meanwhile, the UK’s figure increased 2% vs. the August 2019 level, while Spain's was 8% lower
Given these five countries represent more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 14% YoY in July, following an 8% YoY decrease in June, per official data. Local media report that the negative production dynamics reflected persistent cost pressure, including elevated fuel and energy costs. Meanwhile, gold production in the country also decreased 7% YoY (vs. +6% YoY seen in June)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
In 2025, SA accounted for 71% of global Pt, 34% of Pd mined supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 14% YoY in July, following an 8% YoY decrease in June, per official data. Local media report that the negative production dynamics reflected persistent cost pressure, including elevated fuel and energy costs. Meanwhile, gold production in the country also decreased 7% YoY (vs. +6% YoY seen in June)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
In 2025, SA accounted for 71% of global Pt, 34% of Pd mined supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output was down 4% YoY in August, being in line with the dynamics seen in July, per NBS data. On a 8mo26 basis, production was down 3% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data), China’s net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (-3% YoY in 8mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of supplies and lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least
🏢China's property sales declined 15% YoY in August, after the 22% YoY fall in July; they were also 61% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 30% YoY in August (81% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 14% YoY last month (68% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 28% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output was down 4% YoY in August, being in line with the dynamics seen in July, per NBS data. On a 8mo26 basis, production was down 3% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data), China’s net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (-3% YoY in 8mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of supplies and lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least
🏢China's property sales declined 15% YoY in August, after the 22% YoY fall in July; they were also 61% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 30% YoY in August (81% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 14% YoY last month (68% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 28% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China were down 5% YoY in August, following broadly flat YoY growth in July
📌Sales of new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) cars in China fell 20% YoY in August (vs. the 15% YoY decline in July). The CPCA attributed the recent drop in ICE car sales to rising fuel costs amid the Middle East conflict. Despite the negative dynamics, we maintain our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (upcoming China 7 standard), might eventually bolster Pd/Pt fundamentals. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌China’s new EV sales were up 18% YoY in August, vs. the 24% YoY gain in July. Local BEV sales (71% of total EV) gained 28% YoY, while PHEVs sales declined 1% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China were down 5% YoY in August, following broadly flat YoY growth in July
📌Sales of new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) cars in China fell 20% YoY in August (vs. the 15% YoY decline in July). The CPCA attributed the recent drop in ICE car sales to rising fuel costs amid the Middle East conflict. Despite the negative dynamics, we maintain our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (upcoming China 7 standard), might eventually bolster Pd/Pt fundamentals. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌China’s new EV sales were up 18% YoY in August, vs. the 24% YoY gain in July. Local BEV sales (71% of total EV) gained 28% YoY, while PHEVs sales declined 1% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
⛏ Indonesia has sharply cut benchmark prices for its low-grade nickel ore, Bloomberg reports. On 11 September, the local Energy Ministry lowered the "corrective factor" used in its ore-pricing formula to 14% (vs. 26% earlier). Hence, the cost of 1.2% nickel ore will be almost halved effectively
Although the measure contradicts Indonesia's (63% of global Ni supply) previous efforts to monetise its dominant market position, it is likely to ease cost pressure on local HPAL producers (~30% of Indonesia’s nickel output), materially affected by a surge in sulphur prices amid the Middle East conflict
Overall, the measure lowers the risk of near-term HPAL disruptions, which would add some stress to nickel prices (at least in the short term), as the global Ni market remains in significant surplus (~8% of demand in 2025)
#nickel
⛏ Indonesia has sharply cut benchmark prices for its low-grade nickel ore, Bloomberg reports. On 11 September, the local Energy Ministry lowered the "corrective factor" used in its ore-pricing formula to 14% (vs. 26% earlier). Hence, the cost of 1.2% nickel ore will be almost halved effectively
Although the measure contradicts Indonesia's (63% of global Ni supply) previous efforts to monetise its dominant market position, it is likely to ease cost pressure on local HPAL producers (~30% of Indonesia’s nickel output), materially affected by a surge in sulphur prices amid the Middle East conflict
Overall, the measure lowers the risk of near-term HPAL disruptions, which would add some stress to nickel prices (at least in the short term), as the global Ni market remains in significant surplus (~8% of demand in 2025)
#nickel
Morning Bites
💎India’s natural rough diamond net imports were broadly flat YoY in August, vs. the 10% YoY decline in July, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, natural polished diamond net exports dropped 11% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 103% YoY, reflecting high monthly volatility in this segment. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 15% of total trading in value terms
In our view, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East might further weigh on global diamond trading, as it had previously disrupted operations in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026-27
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s natural rough diamond net imports were broadly flat YoY in August, vs. the 10% YoY decline in July, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, natural polished diamond net exports dropped 11% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 103% YoY, reflecting high monthly volatility in this segment. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 15% of total trading in value terms
In our view, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East might further weigh on global diamond trading, as it had previously disrupted operations in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026-27
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds