Morning Bites
🥈Global ETFs sold 9mnoz net of silver in June, vs. the broadly unchanged holdings in May, per funds data. The decline accounted for ~1% of their total silver holdings (or ~10% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms), which underpins the ongoing price volatility. Overall, in 1H26 ETFs sold 81mnoz (14% of global demand in annualized terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China, will further support a significant physical market deficit (6-8% of global Ag consumption in 2026-28F, on our numbers). In the medium-term we see ~USD 65/oz as fundamentally reasonable level, while prices remain volatile mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
🥈Global ETFs sold 9mnoz net of silver in June, vs. the broadly unchanged holdings in May, per funds data. The decline accounted for ~1% of their total silver holdings (or ~10% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms), which underpins the ongoing price volatility. Overall, in 1H26 ETFs sold 81mnoz (14% of global demand in annualized terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China, will further support a significant physical market deficit (6-8% of global Ag consumption in 2026-28F, on our numbers). In the medium-term we see ~USD 65/oz as fundamentally reasonable level, while prices remain volatile mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
Morning Bites
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs were generally strong in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 51.4 last month (vs. 51.6 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 53.3 (vs. 54.0 earlier)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 50.3 (from 50.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI remained broadly unchanged at 51.7 (vs. 51.8 seen earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing 54.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in every major region were in positive (above 50.0) zone in June: this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs were generally strong in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 51.4 last month (vs. 51.6 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 53.3 (vs. 54.0 earlier)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 50.3 (from 50.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI remained broadly unchanged at 51.7 (vs. 51.8 seen earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing 54.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in every major region were in positive (above 50.0) zone in June: this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites
🏦Global central banks purchased net 41t of gold in May, accelerating from the net 19t purchased in April, World Gold Council data show. Specifically, the major buyers in May were Poland (18t) and China (10t), which outweighed Russia’s (-6t) and Turkey's (-3t) sales
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, amid persisting global geopolitical unrest and de-dollarisation trends. Specifically, per a recent WGC survey, a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months
#gold
🏦Global central banks purchased net 41t of gold in May, accelerating from the net 19t purchased in April, World Gold Council data show. Specifically, the major buyers in May were Poland (18t) and China (10t), which outweighed Russia’s (-6t) and Turkey's (-3t) sales
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, amid persisting global geopolitical unrest and de-dollarisation trends. Specifically, per a recent WGC survey, a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months
#gold
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 13% YoY in May, after the 14% YoY decline in April, remaining near 10-year lows, per INE data. The production decline (also -9% YoY on 5mo26 basis) was mainly attributable to the high base effect, as well as lower ore grades at major mines
Considering the negative dynamics in local production (Chile represents ~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has again revised down its Cu production forecast for 2026, to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from the 5.6mnt it had estimated earlier (+4% YoY). The 5.5mnt supply outlook for 2027 is also 8% lower than the previous estimate
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 13% YoY in May, after the 14% YoY decline in April, remaining near 10-year lows, per INE data. The production decline (also -9% YoY on 5mo26 basis) was mainly attributable to the high base effect, as well as lower ore grades at major mines
Considering the negative dynamics in local production (Chile represents ~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has again revised down its Cu production forecast for 2026, to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from the 5.6mnt it had estimated earlier (+4% YoY). The 5.5mnt supply outlook for 2027 is also 8% lower than the previous estimate
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 26% YoY in May, vs. the 19% YoY gain in April, per government data. Rapaport reports that the local authorities anticipate steady sales growth, with a boost from higher inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 16% YoY in 5mo26) and stronger consumer confidence
However, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 26% YoY in May, vs. the 19% YoY gain in April, per government data. Rapaport reports that the local authorities anticipate steady sales growth, with a boost from higher inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 16% YoY in 5mo26) and stronger consumer confidence
However, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 35% YoY in June (domestic + export), remaining on-trend with the 36% YoY gain in May, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 34% YoY (but still 36% lower than the same period in 2021)
In our view, the 1H26 data suggest bullish prospects for a recovery in local construction activity, if the positive dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 4% YoY in 5mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 35% YoY in June (domestic + export), remaining on-trend with the 36% YoY gain in May, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 34% YoY (but still 36% lower than the same period in 2021)
In our view, the 1H26 data suggest bullish prospects for a recovery in local construction activity, if the positive dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 4% YoY in 5mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
Morning Bites
📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold 74t of gold net in June, after the sale of 16t net in May, per World Gold Council data. The outflows mainly came from North America (-42t) and Asia (-18t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 963t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade way above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,450/oz in 1Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Moreover, we believe it possible that inflationary pressure, if high oil prices persist, might eventually trigger a bull-run in gold prices, as happened in 1978-1980
#ETF #gold
📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold 74t of gold net in June, after the sale of 16t net in May, per World Gold Council data. The outflows mainly came from North America (-42t) and Asia (-18t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 963t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade way above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,450/oz in 1Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Moreover, we believe it possible that inflationary pressure, if high oil prices persist, might eventually trigger a bull-run in gold prices, as happened in 1978-1980
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 12% YoY in June, vs. the 3% YoY gain in May. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (10% lower than June 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% beneath their 2019 equivalent level, while registrations in Italy and Germany decreased 15% and 9% from the same month in 2019, respectively. The UK figure was 5% less; Spain's 2% lower
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 12% YoY in June, vs. the 3% YoY gain in May. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (10% lower than June 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% beneath their 2019 equivalent level, while registrations in Italy and Germany decreased 15% and 9% from the same month in 2019, respectively. The UK figure was 5% less; Spain's 2% lower
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to publish its 2Q26 earnings. On the EBITDA line, we are moderately more bullish than the consensus
Also this week, we expect China to publish its trade data and industrial production numbers for June. South African mining statistics and Indian diamond trade data are also scheduled for release
#reporting_season
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to publish its 2Q26 earnings. On the EBITDA line, we are moderately more bullish than the consensus
Also this week, we expect China to publish its trade data and industrial production numbers for June. South African mining statistics and Indian diamond trade data are also scheduled for release
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.02mnt, down 3.6% from the previous ten days and 4.9% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.5% YTD (through 30 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 9.1% over the period, but were still 5.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.02mnt, down 3.6% from the previous ten days and 4.9% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.5% YTD (through 30 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 9.1% over the period, but were still 5.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for June (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s net finished steel exports grew 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 2% YoY decline in May. On a 1H26 basis, net exports were still down 5% YoY. Although China aims to further reduce “excessive” steel output in 2026 (which was also 4% lower YoY in 2025) net exports remain close to historical highs (after the 25% and 8% YoY growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively). The current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts; however, we believe that further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 29% YoY in June, vs. the decrease of 8% YoY in May. According to Reuters, the dynamics were mainly associated with the dramatic underground accident in late May, which triggered massive security checks across Chinese coal mines
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports grew 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 2% YoY decline in May. On a 1H26 basis, net exports were still down 5% YoY. Although China aims to further reduce “excessive” steel output in 2026 (which was also 4% lower YoY in 2025) net exports remain close to historical highs (after the 25% and 8% YoY growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively). The current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts; however, we believe that further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 29% YoY in June, vs. the decrease of 8% YoY in May. According to Reuters, the dynamics were mainly associated with the dramatic underground accident in late May, which triggered massive security checks across Chinese coal mines
#coal #steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for June (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in June, vs. the 3% decline YoY in May, per NBS data. On a 1H26 basis, production was also down 3% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (they were down 5% YoY in 1H26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least
🏢China's property sales declined 16% YoY in June, after the 14% YoY fall in May; they were also 60% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 26% YoY in June (80% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 11% YoY last month (64% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 25% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in June, vs. the 3% decline YoY in May, per NBS data. On a 1H26 basis, production was also down 3% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (they were down 5% YoY in 1H26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least
🏢China's property sales declined 16% YoY in June, after the 14% YoY fall in May; they were also 60% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 26% YoY in June (80% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 11% YoY last month (64% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 25% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output decreased 4% YoY in May, reversing the 37% YoY growth in April, per official data. The strong performance in previous months was mainly due to the low base effect from early-2025, when heavy rainfalls and maintenance activities disrupted local mining operations. Meanwhile, gold production in the country also declined 4% YoY (vs. the flat YoY dynamics in April)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output decreased 4% YoY in May, reversing the 37% YoY growth in April, per official data. The strong performance in previous months was mainly due to the low base effect from early-2025, when heavy rainfalls and maintenance activities disrupted local mining operations. Meanwhile, gold production in the country also declined 4% YoY (vs. the flat YoY dynamics in April)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites
💎India’s natural rough diamond net imports declined 28% YoY in June, vs. the 43% YoY fall in May, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, natural polished diamond net exports rose 11% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 104% YoY, reflecting high monthly volatility in this segment. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading in value terms
In our view, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East might further weigh on global diamond trading, as it had previously disrupted operations in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s natural rough diamond net imports declined 28% YoY in June, vs. the 43% YoY fall in May, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, natural polished diamond net exports rose 11% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 104% YoY, reflecting high monthly volatility in this segment. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading in value terms
In our view, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East might further weigh on global diamond trading, as it had previously disrupted operations in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several major M&M names are due to publish their 2Q26/1H26 results this week. Overall, our EBITDA forecasts are moderately more bullish than the consensus, except for Teck
Also of importance this week are Thursday's scheduled publication of both the official EU car sales data and global steel production numbers for June
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several major M&M names are due to publish their 2Q26/1H26 results this week. Overall, our EBITDA forecasts are moderately more bullish than the consensus, except for Teck
Also of importance this week are Thursday's scheduled publication of both the official EU car sales data and global steel production numbers for June
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-July was 2.02mnt, unchanged from the previous ten days, but 3.6% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.4% YTD (through 10 July). Meanwhile, local steel inventories expanded 3.0% over the period and were also 11.3% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to gradually tighten supply. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, it is our view that China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, Beijing has recently imposed a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-July was 2.02mnt, unchanged from the previous ten days, but 3.6% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.4% YTD (through 10 July). Meanwhile, local steel inventories expanded 3.0% over the period and were also 11.3% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to gradually tighten supply. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, it is our view that China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, Beijing has recently imposed a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
❤1
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% YoY in June, after the 1.6% YoY decrease in May, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 1.8% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 45.1mnt annualised in 1H26 — technically exceeded the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 34.5% YoY in June, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations have been affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the end of the year
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, are likely to provide support for the Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,400/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% YoY in June, after the 1.6% YoY decrease in May, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 1.8% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 45.1mnt annualised in 1H26 — technically exceeded the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 34.5% YoY in June, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations have been affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the end of the year
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, are likely to provide support for the Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,400/t in 2026F
#aluminium