Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in May, vs. the 7% YoY gain in April, per ACEA data. The numbers were broadly in-line with preliminary estimates. The overall figure, however, was still 20% lower than the pre-Covid level (May 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales slid 4% YoY, while BEV registrations surged 41% YoY last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), the cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard), might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2025, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 25% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in May, vs. the 7% YoY gain in April, per ACEA data. The numbers were broadly in-line with preliminary estimates. The overall figure, however, was still 20% lower than the pre-Covid level (May 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales slid 4% YoY, while BEV registrations surged 41% YoY last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), the cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard), might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2025, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 25% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
⚒️ Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which reveals a materially improved outlook for nickel. The miner now sees only a marginal 20kt Ni market surplus in 2026, vs. its previous estimate of 275kt, amid lower Indonesian ore availability and higher sulphur costs limiting supply growth
• In PGMs, Nornickel expects the Pd market to be in a 0.3mnoz surplus in 2026 (equivalent to ~3% of demand), excluding investment demand. Meanwhile, the Pt market is also seen in a 0.2mnoz surplus, or ~3% of demand, before investment flows
📝 If investment demand is included, Nornickel sees the Pd market as broadly balanced in 2026, while the Pt market moves into a 0.7mnoz deficit
• The refined Cu market is seen in a slight surplus of 0.25mnt and 0.16mnt in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This estimate looks rather conservative to us, amid strong demand, recent supply disruptions at major copper mines and growing concerns about Chilean production
#nickel #PGMs #copper
⚒️ Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which reveals a materially improved outlook for nickel. The miner now sees only a marginal 20kt Ni market surplus in 2026, vs. its previous estimate of 275kt, amid lower Indonesian ore availability and higher sulphur costs limiting supply growth
• In PGMs, Nornickel expects the Pd market to be in a 0.3mnoz surplus in 2026 (equivalent to ~3% of demand), excluding investment demand. Meanwhile, the Pt market is also seen in a 0.2mnoz surplus, or ~3% of demand, before investment flows
📝 If investment demand is included, Nornickel sees the Pd market as broadly balanced in 2026, while the Pt market moves into a 0.7mnoz deficit
• The refined Cu market is seen in a slight surplus of 0.25mnt and 0.16mnt in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This estimate looks rather conservative to us, amid strong demand, recent supply disruptions at major copper mines and growing concerns about Chilean production
#nickel #PGMs #copper
❤2
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY in May at 158mnt, after the 2% YoY drop in April, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 3% YoY, while world ex-China output was up 2% YoY, per the WSA numbers. Specifically, the data show that Russian output dropped 5% YoY, while EU production remained flat YoY last month. US production jumped 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 2% YoY (being up 8% YoY in 5mo26)
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Specifically, in May, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply: now at least 1.5t of old steel capacity needs to exit to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY in May at 158mnt, after the 2% YoY drop in April, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 3% YoY, while world ex-China output was up 2% YoY, per the WSA numbers. Specifically, the data show that Russian output dropped 5% YoY, while EU production remained flat YoY last month. US production jumped 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 2% YoY (being up 8% YoY in 5mo26)
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Specifically, in May, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply: now at least 1.5t of old steel capacity needs to exit to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% YoY in May, after the 1.8% YoY fall in April, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 2.0% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 44.8mnt annualised in 5mo26 — might technically exceed the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 35.2% YoY in May, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the year’s end
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, should provide support to Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,500/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% YoY in May, after the 1.8% YoY fall in April, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 2.0% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 44.8mnt annualised in 5mo26 — might technically exceed the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 35.2% YoY in May, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the year’s end
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, should provide support to Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,500/t in 2026F
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production declined 4.5% YoY in April, vs. the revised drop of 1.1% YoY in March, the ICSG reports. Overall, in 4mo26, global copper output decreased 1.4% YoY. The main contributors to the production slowdown were Indonesia and Chile, where mined production declined 40.0% and 7.9% YoY, respectively, affected by major accidents in 2025 and declining ore grades
Meanwhile, global apparent copper consumption increased 2.0% YoY in 4mo26, mainly driven by Chinese demand (+2.4% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, due to both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production declined 4.5% YoY in April, vs. the revised drop of 1.1% YoY in March, the ICSG reports. Overall, in 4mo26, global copper output decreased 1.4% YoY. The main contributors to the production slowdown were Indonesia and Chile, where mined production declined 40.0% and 7.9% YoY, respectively, affected by major accidents in 2025 and declining ore grades
Meanwhile, global apparent copper consumption increased 2.0% YoY in 4mo26, mainly driven by Chinese demand (+2.4% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, due to both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-June was 2.10mnt, up 0.8% from the previous ten days, but 2.2% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.6% YTD (through 20 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.1% over the period, and were 10.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-June was 2.10mnt, up 0.8% from the previous ten days, but 2.2% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.6% YTD (through 20 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.1% over the period, and were 10.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
Morning Bites
💎Global rough diamond supply dropped 8% YoY to 99mnct in 2025, after a 3% YoY decline in 2024, per Kimberley Process data. Specifically, Botswana's output was down 14% YoY to 15mnct, while production in Russia declined 16% YoY to 32mnct
Despite the contraction in global mined supply, diamond exports (from the 12 key producing countries) rose 4% YoY as Botswana — driven primarily by De Beers — and Angola continued to draw down inventory
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)
#diamonds
💎Global rough diamond supply dropped 8% YoY to 99mnct in 2025, after a 3% YoY decline in 2024, per Kimberley Process data. Specifically, Botswana's output was down 14% YoY to 15mnct, while production in Russia declined 16% YoY to 32mnct
Despite the contraction in global mined supply, diamond exports (from the 12 key producing countries) rose 4% YoY as Botswana — driven primarily by De Beers — and Angola continued to draw down inventory
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🥈Global ETFs sold 9mnoz net of silver in June, vs. the broadly unchanged holdings in May, per funds data. The decline accounted for ~1% of their total silver holdings (or ~10% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms), which underpins the ongoing price volatility. Overall, in 1H26 ETFs sold 81mnoz (14% of global demand in annualized terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China, will further support a significant physical market deficit (6-8% of global Ag consumption in 2026-28F, on our numbers). In the medium-term we see ~USD 65/oz as fundamentally reasonable level, while prices remain volatile mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
🥈Global ETFs sold 9mnoz net of silver in June, vs. the broadly unchanged holdings in May, per funds data. The decline accounted for ~1% of their total silver holdings (or ~10% of global Ag demand in 2025, in annualised terms), which underpins the ongoing price volatility. Overall, in 1H26 ETFs sold 81mnoz (14% of global demand in annualized terms)
In our view, solid demand for renewable energy in China, will further support a significant physical market deficit (6-8% of global Ag consumption in 2026-28F, on our numbers). In the medium-term we see ~USD 65/oz as fundamentally reasonable level, while prices remain volatile mainly due to abnormal speculative activity
#silver
Morning Bites
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs were generally strong in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 51.4 last month (vs. 51.6 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 53.3 (vs. 54.0 earlier)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 50.3 (from 50.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI remained broadly unchanged at 51.7 (vs. 51.8 seen earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing 54.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in every major region were in positive (above 50.0) zone in June: this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs were generally strong in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 51.4 last month (vs. 51.6 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 53.3 (vs. 54.0 earlier)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 50.3 (from 50.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI remained broadly unchanged at 51.7 (vs. 51.8 seen earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing 54.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in every major region were in positive (above 50.0) zone in June: this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites
🏦Global central banks purchased net 41t of gold in May, accelerating from the net 19t purchased in April, World Gold Council data show. Specifically, the major buyers in May were Poland (18t) and China (10t), which outweighed Russia’s (-6t) and Turkey's (-3t) sales
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, amid persisting global geopolitical unrest and de-dollarisation trends. Specifically, per a recent WGC survey, a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months
#gold
🏦Global central banks purchased net 41t of gold in May, accelerating from the net 19t purchased in April, World Gold Council data show. Specifically, the major buyers in May were Poland (18t) and China (10t), which outweighed Russia’s (-6t) and Turkey's (-3t) sales
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, amid persisting global geopolitical unrest and de-dollarisation trends. Specifically, per a recent WGC survey, a record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months
#gold
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 13% YoY in May, after the 14% YoY decline in April, remaining near 10-year lows, per INE data. The production decline (also -9% YoY on 5mo26 basis) was mainly attributable to the high base effect, as well as lower ore grades at major mines
Considering the negative dynamics in local production (Chile represents ~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has again revised down its Cu production forecast for 2026, to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from the 5.6mnt it had estimated earlier (+4% YoY). The 5.5mnt supply outlook for 2027 is also 8% lower than the previous estimate
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 13% YoY in May, after the 14% YoY decline in April, remaining near 10-year lows, per INE data. The production decline (also -9% YoY on 5mo26 basis) was mainly attributable to the high base effect, as well as lower ore grades at major mines
Considering the negative dynamics in local production (Chile represents ~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has again revised down its Cu production forecast for 2026, to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from the 5.6mnt it had estimated earlier (+4% YoY). The 5.5mnt supply outlook for 2027 is also 8% lower than the previous estimate
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 26% YoY in May, vs. the 19% YoY gain in April, per government data. Rapaport reports that the local authorities anticipate steady sales growth, with a boost from higher inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 16% YoY in 5mo26) and stronger consumer confidence
However, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 26% YoY in May, vs. the 19% YoY gain in April, per government data. Rapaport reports that the local authorities anticipate steady sales growth, with a boost from higher inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 16% YoY in 5mo26) and stronger consumer confidence
However, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline posed by Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 35% YoY in June (domestic + export), remaining on-trend with the 36% YoY gain in May, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 34% YoY (but still 36% lower than the same period in 2021)
In our view, the 1H26 data suggest bullish prospects for a recovery in local construction activity, if the positive dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 4% YoY in 5mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 35% YoY in June (domestic + export), remaining on-trend with the 36% YoY gain in May, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 34% YoY (but still 36% lower than the same period in 2021)
In our view, the 1H26 data suggest bullish prospects for a recovery in local construction activity, if the positive dynamics persist. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (it was down 4% YoY in 5mo26, after the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce China's surging steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
Morning Bites
📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold 74t of gold net in June, after the sale of 16t net in May, per World Gold Council data. The outflows mainly came from North America (-42t) and Asia (-18t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 963t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade way above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,450/oz in 1Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Moreover, we believe it possible that inflationary pressure, if high oil prices persist, might eventually trigger a bull-run in gold prices, as happened in 1978-1980
#ETF #gold
📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold 74t of gold net in June, after the sale of 16t net in May, per World Gold Council data. The outflows mainly came from North America (-42t) and Asia (-18t) last month. Meanwhile, since May 2024, global funds have added 963t net (~11% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade way above what we see as its cost support level (the 90%-ile AISC was ~USD 2,450/oz in 1Q26, on our numbers), we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2026. Moreover, we believe it possible that inflationary pressure, if high oil prices persist, might eventually trigger a bull-run in gold prices, as happened in 1978-1980
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 12% YoY in June, vs. the 3% YoY gain in May. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (10% lower than June 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% beneath their 2019 equivalent level, while registrations in Italy and Germany decreased 15% and 9% from the same month in 2019, respectively. The UK figure was 5% less; Spain's 2% lower
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 12% YoY in June, vs. the 3% YoY gain in May. Total sales, however, remained below their pre-COVID level (10% lower than June 2019)
Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% beneath their 2019 equivalent level, while registrations in Italy and Germany decreased 15% and 9% from the same month in 2019, respectively. The UK figure was 5% less; Spain's 2% lower
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely increased YoY last month, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to publish its 2Q26 earnings. On the EBITDA line, we are moderately more bullish than the consensus
Also this week, we expect China to publish its trade data and industrial production numbers for June. South African mining statistics and Indian diamond trade data are also scheduled for release
#reporting_season
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to publish its 2Q26 earnings. On the EBITDA line, we are moderately more bullish than the consensus
Also this week, we expect China to publish its trade data and industrial production numbers for June. South African mining statistics and Indian diamond trade data are also scheduled for release
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.02mnt, down 3.6% from the previous ten days and 4.9% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.5% YTD (through 30 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 9.1% over the period, but were still 5.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.02mnt, down 3.6% from the previous ten days and 4.9% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.5% YTD (through 30 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 9.1% over the period, but were still 5.4% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply gradually. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for June (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China