Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-May was 2.00mnt, down 4.3% from the previous ten days, and 4.1% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.9% YTD (through 31 May). Meanwhile, local steel inventories dropped 15.7% over the period, but were 3.5% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed)
For instance, China has already released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity now needs to be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-May was 2.00mnt, down 4.3% from the previous ten days, and 4.1% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.9% YTD (through 31 May). Meanwhile, local steel inventories dropped 15.7% over the period, but were 3.5% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed)
For instance, China has already released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity now needs to be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China fell 2% YoY in May (vs. the 3% YoY drop in April)
📌Sales of new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) cars in China fell 13% YoY in May (vs. a decrease of 8% YoY in April). We keep our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as per Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt fundamentals. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌China’s new EV sales rose 14% YoY in May, vs. the 10% YoY gain in April. Local BEV sales (69% of total EV) rose 23% YoY, while PHEVs slid 1% YoY. The sector has increasingly relied on overseas shipments (exports rose 69% YoY last month) to offset domestic weakness. Per CnEVpost, the export growth of PHEVs (2.4x YoY) was significantly higher than BEV models (+94% YoY)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China fell 2% YoY in May (vs. the 3% YoY drop in April)
📌Sales of new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) cars in China fell 13% YoY in May (vs. a decrease of 8% YoY in April). We keep our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as per Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt fundamentals. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌China’s new EV sales rose 14% YoY in May, vs. the 10% YoY gain in April. Local BEV sales (69% of total EV) rose 23% YoY, while PHEVs slid 1% YoY. The sector has increasingly relied on overseas shipments (exports rose 69% YoY last month) to offset domestic weakness. Per CnEVpost, the export growth of PHEVs (2.4x YoY) was significantly higher than BEV models (+94% YoY)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 5% YoY in April, vs. the flat YoY dynamic in March, per data released by the country’s Energy and Mines Ministry. Overall, on 4mo26 basis, local production was up 3% YoY as higher output at the Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay mines offset declines at Quellaveco, Marcobre and other operations
However, the joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global mined Cu output), was down 8% YoY in April and 4% lower YoY in 4mo26 amid ongoing supply issues in Chile
#copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 5% YoY in April, vs. the flat YoY dynamic in March, per data released by the country’s Energy and Mines Ministry. Overall, on 4mo26 basis, local production was up 3% YoY as higher output at the Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay mines offset declines at Quellaveco, Marcobre and other operations
However, the joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global mined Cu output), was down 8% YoY in April and 4% lower YoY in 4mo26 amid ongoing supply issues in Chile
#copper
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 3% YoY in May, in line with April, per NBS data. On a 5mo26 basis, the production was down 4% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to decline gradually in 2026 (-8% YoY in 5mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27
🏢China's property sales declined 14% YoY in May, after the 10% YoY fall in April; they were also 62% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 25% YoY in April (-80% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 13% YoY last month (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 20% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 3% YoY in May, in line with April, per NBS data. On a 5mo26 basis, the production was down 4% YoY
Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to decline gradually in 2026 (-8% YoY in 5mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27
🏢China's property sales declined 14% YoY in May, after the 10% YoY fall in April; they were also 62% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 25% YoY in April (-80% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 13% YoY last month (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 20% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 1)
🟡 A record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, a new World Gold Council and YouGov survey shows. This is the highest reading since the survey began in 2018. Meanwhile only 1% of respondents (1 out of 74) indicated plans to reduce their gold reserves
The majority of respondents (74%) also see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years, underpinning the global de-dollarisation trend
Overall, the 2026 survey’s results support our view that gold prices are likely to remain above their fundamentally reasonable level in the near future, given solid central bank demand trend and persisting geopolitical instability
#gold
🟡 A record 45% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, a new World Gold Council and YouGov survey shows. This is the highest reading since the survey began in 2018. Meanwhile only 1% of respondents (1 out of 74) indicated plans to reduce their gold reserves
The majority of respondents (74%) also see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years, underpinning the global de-dollarisation trend
Overall, the 2026 survey’s results support our view that gold prices are likely to remain above their fundamentally reasonable level in the near future, given solid central bank demand trend and persisting geopolitical instability
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 43% YoY in May, vs. the 31% YoY fall in April, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 5% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports increased 22% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 13% of total trading in value terms
According to Rapaport, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted diamond trading in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 43% YoY in May, vs. the 31% YoY fall in April, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 5% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports increased 22% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 13% of total trading in value terms
According to Rapaport, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted diamond trading in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 36% YoY in May (domestic + export), vs. the +30% YoY in April, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 39% YoY (but still 47% lower than the same period in 2021). In our view, the sales data provide a mildly bullish indicator of the prospects for a recovery in the local property sector in the medium-term
The gradual recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, suggests that local construction activity is slowly bottoming out, in our view. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 5mo26, after -4% YoY in 2025, per the official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 36% YoY in May (domestic + export), vs. the +30% YoY in April, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 39% YoY (but still 47% lower than the same period in 2021). In our view, the sales data provide a mildly bullish indicator of the prospects for a recovery in the local property sector in the medium-term
The gradual recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, suggests that local construction activity is slowly bottoming out, in our view. Meanwhile, Beijing plans further cuts to 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 5mo26, after -4% YoY in 2025, per the official data). We believe that these two factors might reduce surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in the medium term
#steel
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-June was 2.08mnt, up 3.8% from the previous ten days, but 3.5% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.8% YTD (through 10 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.6% over the period, and were 6.8% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity now needs to be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-June was 2.08mnt, up 3.8% from the previous ten days, but 3.5% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production has declined 5.8% YTD (through 10 June). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.6% over the period, and were 6.8% higher YoY
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China might also introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed)
For instance, China has recently released a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity now needs to be decommissioned to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 37% YoY in April, vs. the 10% YoY gain in March, per official data. The strong performance in recent months mainly reflects the low base effect from last year (-24% YoY in April 2025), when heavy rainfalls and maintenance activities disrupted local mining operations. Meanwhile, gold production in the country was flat YoY (vs. the +17% YoY in March)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye's, recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 37% YoY in April, vs. the 10% YoY gain in March, per official data. The strong performance in recent months mainly reflects the low base effect from last year (-24% YoY in April 2025), when heavy rainfalls and maintenance activities disrupted local mining operations. Meanwhile, gold production in the country was flat YoY (vs. the +17% YoY in March)
We expect South African PGM supply to decrease gradually in the long term (e.g. Sibanye's, recently published downbeat guidance for production through 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in May, vs. the 7% YoY gain in April, per ACEA data. The numbers were broadly in-line with preliminary estimates. The overall figure, however, was still 20% lower than the pre-Covid level (May 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales slid 4% YoY, while BEV registrations surged 41% YoY last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), the cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard), might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2025, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 25% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in May, vs. the 7% YoY gain in April, per ACEA data. The numbers were broadly in-line with preliminary estimates. The overall figure, however, was still 20% lower than the pre-Covid level (May 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales slid 4% YoY, while BEV registrations surged 41% YoY last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), the cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard), might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2025, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 25% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
⚒️ Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which reveals a materially improved outlook for nickel. The miner now sees only a marginal 20kt Ni market surplus in 2026, vs. its previous estimate of 275kt, amid lower Indonesian ore availability and higher sulphur costs limiting supply growth
• In PGMs, Nornickel expects the Pd market to be in a 0.3mnoz surplus in 2026 (equivalent to ~3% of demand), excluding investment demand. Meanwhile, the Pt market is also seen in a 0.2mnoz surplus, or ~3% of demand, before investment flows
📝 If investment demand is included, Nornickel sees the Pd market as broadly balanced in 2026, while the Pt market moves into a 0.7mnoz deficit
• The refined Cu market is seen in a slight surplus of 0.25mnt and 0.16mnt in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This estimate looks rather conservative to us, amid strong demand, recent supply disruptions at major copper mines and growing concerns about Chilean production
#nickel #PGMs #copper
⚒️ Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which reveals a materially improved outlook for nickel. The miner now sees only a marginal 20kt Ni market surplus in 2026, vs. its previous estimate of 275kt, amid lower Indonesian ore availability and higher sulphur costs limiting supply growth
• In PGMs, Nornickel expects the Pd market to be in a 0.3mnoz surplus in 2026 (equivalent to ~3% of demand), excluding investment demand. Meanwhile, the Pt market is also seen in a 0.2mnoz surplus, or ~3% of demand, before investment flows
📝 If investment demand is included, Nornickel sees the Pd market as broadly balanced in 2026, while the Pt market moves into a 0.7mnoz deficit
• The refined Cu market is seen in a slight surplus of 0.25mnt and 0.16mnt in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This estimate looks rather conservative to us, amid strong demand, recent supply disruptions at major copper mines and growing concerns about Chilean production
#nickel #PGMs #copper
❤2
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY in May at 158mnt, after the 2% YoY drop in April, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 3% YoY, while world ex-China output was up 2% YoY, per the WSA numbers. Specifically, the data show that Russian output dropped 5% YoY, while EU production remained flat YoY last month. US production jumped 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 2% YoY (being up 8% YoY in 5mo26)
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Specifically, in May, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply: now at least 1.5t of old steel capacity needs to exit to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY in May at 158mnt, after the 2% YoY drop in April, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 3% YoY, while world ex-China output was up 2% YoY, per the WSA numbers. Specifically, the data show that Russian output dropped 5% YoY, while EU production remained flat YoY last month. US production jumped 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 2% YoY (being up 8% YoY in 5mo26)
Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis. Specifically, in May, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a tougher steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply: now at least 1.5t of old steel capacity needs to exit to build every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide
#steel
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% YoY in May, after the 1.8% YoY fall in April, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 2.0% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 44.8mnt annualised in 5mo26 — might technically exceed the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 35.2% YoY in May, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the year’s end
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, should provide support to Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,500/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% YoY in May, after the 1.8% YoY fall in April, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 2.0% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 44.8mnt annualised in 5mo26 — might technically exceed the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt
Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 35.2% YoY in May, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the year’s end
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, should provide support to Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,500/t in 2026F
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production declined 4.5% YoY in April, vs. the revised drop of 1.1% YoY in March, the ICSG reports. Overall, in 4mo26, global copper output decreased 1.4% YoY. The main contributors to the production slowdown were Indonesia and Chile, where mined production declined 40.0% and 7.9% YoY, respectively, affected by major accidents in 2025 and declining ore grades
Meanwhile, global apparent copper consumption increased 2.0% YoY in 4mo26, mainly driven by Chinese demand (+2.4% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, due to both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production declined 4.5% YoY in April, vs. the revised drop of 1.1% YoY in March, the ICSG reports. Overall, in 4mo26, global copper output decreased 1.4% YoY. The main contributors to the production slowdown were Indonesia and Chile, where mined production declined 40.0% and 7.9% YoY, respectively, affected by major accidents in 2025 and declining ore grades
Meanwhile, global apparent copper consumption increased 2.0% YoY in 4mo26, mainly driven by Chinese demand (+2.4% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, due to both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper