Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China declined 15% YoY in February (vs. a 3% YoY decrease in January)
📌China’s new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 17% YoY in February (vs. a 5% YoY reduction in January), which is at least partly associated with the later start of the Lunar New Year in 2026. We reiterate our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China declined 14% YoY in February, vs. flat YoY dynamics in January. Specifically, local BEV sales (63% of total EV registrations) fell 11% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 20% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China declined 15% YoY in February (vs. a 3% YoY decrease in January)
📌China’s new catalyst-containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 17% YoY in February (vs. a 5% YoY reduction in January), which is at least partly associated with the later start of the Lunar New Year in 2026. We reiterate our view that the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China declined 14% YoY in February, vs. flat YoY dynamics in January. Specifically, local BEV sales (63% of total EV registrations) fell 11% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 20% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for January-February (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 4% YoY in January-February, vs. the 10% YoY drop seen in December, per NBS data. Despite the continuous contraction of local crude steel supply (also -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes remain at elevated levels, weighing on global steel prices
Given the prolonged crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional supply control measures similar to those imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Beijing has already strictly prohibited new capacity additions in 2026
🏢China's property sales decreased 14% YoY in January-February, after the 17% YoY fall in December; they were also 46% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 23% YoY in 2mo26 (-70% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 42% YoY last two months (-77% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 28% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 4% YoY in January-February, vs. the 10% YoY drop seen in December, per NBS data. Despite the continuous contraction of local crude steel supply (also -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes remain at elevated levels, weighing on global steel prices
Given the prolonged crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional supply control measures similar to those imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Beijing has already strictly prohibited new capacity additions in 2026
🏢China's property sales decreased 14% YoY in January-February, after the 17% YoY fall in December; they were also 46% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 23% YoY in 2mo26 (-70% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 42% YoY last two months (-77% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 28% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳The State Grid of China increased capital expenditures 81% YoY in January-February 2026, Bloomberg reports, citing a company statement. The numbers underscore Beijing’s push to ease transmission bottlenecks and the State Grid’s overall plan to boost capex 40% in 2026-30 (vs. the average 2021-25 level)
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically accounts for 80-85% of the local grid capital expenditures
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals. The January-February data are not necessarily representative for the full year, given how seasonally low they tend to be; however, the strong start suggests potential upside risks to our current demand forecasts
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳The State Grid of China increased capital expenditures 81% YoY in January-February 2026, Bloomberg reports, citing a company statement. The numbers underscore Beijing’s push to ease transmission bottlenecks and the State Grid’s overall plan to boost capex 40% in 2026-30 (vs. the average 2021-25 level)
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically accounts for 80-85% of the local grid capital expenditures
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals. The January-February data are not necessarily representative for the full year, given how seasonally low they tend to be; however, the strong start suggests potential upside risks to our current demand forecasts
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 2% YoY in February, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in January. Total car sales in the US were also 8% below their pre-Covid (February 2019) level
Meanwhile, the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales is to gradually increase, we believe, as new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024 - supportive for PGM market fundamentals
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 2% YoY in February, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in January. Total car sales in the US were also 8% below their pre-Covid (February 2019) level
Meanwhile, the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales is to gradually increase, we believe, as new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024 - supportive for PGM market fundamentals
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 11% YoY in January, reversing from the 7% YoY decline in December, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also inched up 1% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in December)
We expect local PGM supply to contract gradually in the long-run (e.g., recently published downbeat Sibanye’s production guidance until 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 11% YoY in January, reversing from the 7% YoY decline in December, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also inched up 1% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in December)
We expect local PGM supply to contract gradually in the long-run (e.g., recently published downbeat Sibanye’s production guidance until 2040)
SA accounts for some 70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports rose 8% YoY in February, reversing from the 14% YoY decline in January, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports were flat YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 59% YoY (mainly due to the low base effect). Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading in value terms
According to Rapaport, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted diamond trading in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports rose 8% YoY in February, reversing from the 14% YoY decline in January, per GJEPC data. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports were flat YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 59% YoY (mainly due to the low base effect). Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading in value terms
According to Rapaport, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted diamond trading in the UAE and Israel (major hubs), with some auctions being postponed. We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, especially given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-March was 2.01mnt, down 0.8% from the previous ten days and also 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.6% YTD (through March-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, and were 9.7% higher YoY
In our view, given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-March was 2.01mnt, down 0.8% from the previous ten days and also 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.6% YTD (through March-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, and were 9.7% higher YoY
In our view, given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% YoY in February, after the 1.2% YoY gain in January, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) grew 1.6% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in 2mo26, annualised output was 44.6mnt
Middle East (9% of global Al supply) is becoming a key risk factor for the aluminium market. While no major production shutdowns have been confirmed so far, disruptions are emerging: Aluminium Bahrain has declared force majeure on exports, while Qatar’s Qatalum might halt production amid gas availability issues
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, create upside risks for aluminium prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% YoY in February, after the 1.2% YoY gain in January, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) grew 1.6% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in 2mo26, annualised output was 44.6mnt
Middle East (9% of global Al supply) is becoming a key risk factor for the aluminium market. While no major production shutdowns have been confirmed so far, disruptions are emerging: Aluminium Bahrain has declared force majeure on exports, while Qatar’s Qatalum might halt production amid gas availability issues
We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, create upside risks for aluminium prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 3% YoY in January, after a 5% YoY decrease in December, per the INE data. Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply) has recently revised down its medium-term Cu production forecast. Specifically, its outlook for 2026 is now 6% below the previous estimate (implying only moderate YoY growth of 2-3%). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 3% YoY in January, vs. the 3% YoY decline in December. Expansion of Antamina will drive up the output in 2026; however, MINEM expects supply of 2.8mnt this year — broadly flat YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 1% YoY in January
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 3% YoY in January, after a 5% YoY decrease in December, per the INE data. Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply) has recently revised down its medium-term Cu production forecast. Specifically, its outlook for 2026 is now 6% below the previous estimate (implying only moderate YoY growth of 2-3%). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 3% YoY in January, vs. the 3% YoY decline in December. Expansion of Antamina will drive up the output in 2026; however, MINEM expects supply of 2.8mnt this year — broadly flat YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 1% YoY in January
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 2% YoY in February to 142mnt, after the 7% drop YoY in January, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 4% YoY, while world ex-China output also inched down 1% YoY, per the WSA. Specifically, the WSA numbers show that Russian and EU output dropped 10% and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 6% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 8% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2mo26)
Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. New reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 2% YoY in February to 142mnt, after the 7% drop YoY in January, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 4% YoY, while world ex-China output also inched down 1% YoY, per the WSA. Specifically, the WSA numbers show that Russian and EU output dropped 10% and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 6% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 8% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2mo26)
Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. New reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 2% YoY in February, vs. the 3% YoY drop in January, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 14% lower than the pre-Covid level (February 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales inched down 1% YoY, which was offset by the strong BEV registrations (+18% YoY) seen last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 2% YoY in February, vs. the 3% YoY drop in January, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 14% lower than the pre-Covid level (February 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales inched down 1% YoY, which was offset by the strong BEV registrations (+18% YoY) seen last month
In our view, PGM supply issues (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040), cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-March was 2.03mnt, up 0.8% from the previous ten days, but 6.4% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.6% YTD (through March-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 0.6% over the period, and were 5.9% higher YoY
Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. New reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-March was 2.03mnt, up 0.8% from the previous ten days, but 6.4% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.6% YTD (through March-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 0.6% over the period, and were 5.9% higher YoY
Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. New reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭 Aluminium plants in the UAE and Bahrain were damaged on 28 March, amid the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports, citing statements made by the companies involved. Specifically, EMAL (UAE, ~2% of global primary Al production) and Alba (Bahrain, ~2%) operations were affected, but the scale of damage is still being assessed. We also recap that Qatalum (Qatar, ~1%) was expected to suspend production by end-March due to gas shortages
On our numbers, the Gulf countries jointly accounted for ~9% of global Al supply in 2025, so continuous production disruptions are likely to add further support to aluminium market fundamentals, along with strong consumption dynamics globally. Specifically, Japan 2Q26 aluminium premia already increased ~80% QoQ to ~350 USD/t, reaching the 11-year highs
#aluminium
🏭 Aluminium plants in the UAE and Bahrain were damaged on 28 March, amid the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports, citing statements made by the companies involved. Specifically, EMAL (UAE, ~2% of global primary Al production) and Alba (Bahrain, ~2%) operations were affected, but the scale of damage is still being assessed. We also recap that Qatalum (Qatar, ~1%) was expected to suspend production by end-March due to gas shortages
On our numbers, the Gulf countries jointly accounted for ~9% of global Al supply in 2025, so continuous production disruptions are likely to add further support to aluminium market fundamentals, along with strong consumption dynamics globally. Specifically, Japan 2Q26 aluminium premia already increased ~80% QoQ to ~350 USD/t, reaching the 11-year highs
#aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗️ Several Iranian steel plants were damaged by air strikes on 27 March, including 2 largest sites: Mobarakeh Steel (~7.1 mntpa) and Khouzestan Steel (~4.2 mntpa), which jointly account for ~35% of local steel output, Argus reports. However, the strikes reportedly hit non-core infrastructure (power stations, warehouses, etc.), while blast furnaces and production units largely remained intact, suggesting overall limited impact on operations
On our numbers, Iran accounts for ~2% of global steel output (and 3–4% of exports), so further escalation of the conflict or sustained supply disruptions might weigh on local exports and, hence, provide marginal support to global steel prices, we think
#steel
🏗️ Several Iranian steel plants were damaged by air strikes on 27 March, including 2 largest sites: Mobarakeh Steel (~7.1 mntpa) and Khouzestan Steel (~4.2 mntpa), which jointly account for ~35% of local steel output, Argus reports. However, the strikes reportedly hit non-core infrastructure (power stations, warehouses, etc.), while blast furnaces and production units largely remained intact, suggesting overall limited impact on operations
On our numbers, Iran accounts for ~2% of global steel output (and 3–4% of exports), so further escalation of the conflict or sustained supply disruptions might weigh on local exports and, hence, provide marginal support to global steel prices, we think
#steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production rose 2.2% YoY in January, a reversal from the decline of 2.1% YoY seen in December, the International Copper Study Group reports. The main contributor to production growth in early-2026 was Peru (+3% YoY)
Meanwhile, apparent copper consumption rose 2.5% YoY in January. Specifically, per ICSG data, China’s copper consumption grew 1% YoY over the period
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production rose 2.2% YoY in January, a reversal from the decline of 2.1% YoY seen in December, the International Copper Study Group reports. The main contributor to production growth in early-2026 was Peru (+3% YoY)
Meanwhile, apparent copper consumption rose 2.5% YoY in January. Specifically, per ICSG data, China’s copper consumption grew 1% YoY over the period
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper