Morning Bites

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations fell 3% YoY in January, vs. the 6% YoY gain in December, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 21% lower than the pre-Covid level (January 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 7% YoY, which was partially offset by the strong BEV registrations (+20% YoY) last month

In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively

We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term

#cars

Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply

#steel

Morning Bites (part 1)

💎 De Beers has raised prices for large (>5ct) rough diamonds at its February sight, responding to tight supply in the segment, Rapaport reports. The exact scale of the price change remains unknown

To recap, in 2025, there was a noticeable difference in the performance of large and small polished diamonds. The RAPI price index declined 26% and 10% YoY for 0.5ct and 1.0ct stones, respectively, while the 3.0ct index inched up 0.3%. Such difference might reflect weaker purchasing power in low categories, pressure from LGDs in low-end of bridal category and high gold prices (+44% YoY in 2025), which incentives retailers to put lower value stones in low-end jewellery. All these factors are irrelevant for high-end luxury goods

We maintain a cautious view on the global diamond market and believe that supply discipline will not start to recover until Anglo American completes the planned sale (or spin-off) of De Beers, which accounts for ~30% of global rough diamonds mined supply

#diamonds

Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗Global crude steel output declined 7% YoY in January to 147mnt, after the 4% drop YoY in December, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 14% YoY, while world ex-China output rose 3% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU output dropped 7% and 2% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 3% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 11% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026

#steel

Week ahead data releases in M&M

The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several M&M names are still due to release their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Of the major companies reporting this week, our expectations of Fresnillo's and Ero Copper’s performance are more conservative than the Street's

#reporting_season

Morning Bites (part 1)

🥉Global mined copper production fell 2.1% YoY in December, vs. the revised decline of 3.2% YoY in November, the International Copper Study Group reports. In 2025, however, the figure was up 0.7% YoY, due to the strong 1H25 dynamics before the series accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)

Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained upbeat, up 3.0% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by China (+4.0% YoY)

We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper

Morning Bites (part 2)

🪨 India plans to cut coal imports for its power sector by 30% in 2026, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the plan. The Indian government is pushing utilities (which imported ~50mnt of coal in 2025) to rely more heavily on domestic supply and reduce imports by at least 15mnt this year. Overall, local authorities aim to replace 20-30% of imported coal with domestic supply at most power plants

In our view, the target looks overly ambitious, given the short implementation period. However, the initiative underpins our longer-term cautious view on thermal coal

India accounted for ~15% of global thermal coal imports in 2025

#coal

Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.03mnt, up 4.3% from the previous ten days, but 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.2% YTD (through February-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 19.9% over the period, and were 8.3% higher YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply

Morning Bites (part 1)

🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in February. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 50.8 (vs. 49.5 in January), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched down to 52.4 (vs. 52.6 seen last month)

🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.0 (from 49.3 a month ago). However, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.1 (from 50.3 earlier)

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.9 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in western economies remained above 50.0 - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs show mixed dynamics, while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures

#PMIs

Morning Bites (part 2)

🇶🇦 Qatalum expects to halt aluminium production by end-March 2026, per a company press-release. The controlled shutdown of the 0.65mnt smelter (~1% of global primary Al supply) started on March 3 amid the forthcoming suspension of gas supply. Management expects full restart to take 6-12 months, but the exact timing is unknown yet

On our numbers, the Gulf countries jointly accounted for ~9% of global Al supply in 2024, so continuous production disruptions, if materialise, might add further support to aluminium market fundamentals, along with strong consumption dynamics globally

#aluminium

Morning Bites

🏦 Global central bank gold purchases decelerated to net 5t in January, vs. the revised +33t net seen in December, but still marked the 32th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data

Specifically, the only notable purchase in January was made by Uzbekistan (+9t), which was offset by Russia's sale (also -9t), per WGC data. We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks

#gold

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 31% YoY in January, vs. the +14% YoY in December, per government data. According to Rapaport, the growth was partially driven by the early arrival of the Chinese New Year in 2025, which weighed on January’s YoY comparison. Nevertheless, the retail sector maintained its positive trajectory, while the sustained growth of inbound visitors and the economic growth momentum will likely continue to underpin local consumption

We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns

🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for January-February (see table above)

#statistics #China

Morning Bites (part 2)

🏭Several nickel processing plants in Indonesia halted production after a landslide in mid-February, Bloomberg reports. The incident affected four facilities at the Morowali Industrial Park, jointly accounting for 30% of Indonesia’s HPAL capacity, with their suspension potentially lasting as long as three months

On our numbers, the affected HPAL plants accounted for ~5% of Indonesian Ni supply in 2025 (and ~3% of global production). However, we remind readers that Ni market remains in a significant surplus (~8% of global demand in 2025), so the positive effect on sentiment is likely to be limited, in our view

#nickel

Morning Bites (part 1)

📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 26t of gold net in February, vs. the +120t net seen in January, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were recorded in all regions except Europe, which sold 13t net last month. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 1,089t net (~13% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in the EU, and US, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest

Although at spot gold continues to trade above the level we see as fundamentally reasonable in the long term, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the ongoing inflows into global central banks and ETFs in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold

Morning Bites (part 2)

🏗China’s excavator sales fell 11% YoY in February (domestic + export), a major reversal from the 50% YoY increase in January, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were down 42% YoY (also 72% lower than the same period in 2021). In our view, the contraction seen last month might be associated with the later start of the Lunar New Year in 2026. We also remind readers that the upcoming March data is the most seasonally important print for Chinese excavator sales, and might provide insight into the prospects for the local property sector recovery in 2026

The gradual recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is slowly bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view

#steel

Morning Bites

🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 3% YoY in February, vs. the 1% YoY decline in January. Total sales also remained below their pre-COVID level (18% lower than February 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 43% beneath their 2019 level, while registrations in Spain and Germany were 8% and 25% lower, respectively. UK and Italy figures grew 10% and 12% vs. 2019 levels

Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels

#cars #PGMs