Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are more upbeat than the consensus on S32 and First Quantum’s EBITDA, but slightly less bullish on Warrior’s performance
We also await South African PGM mining statistics to be published on Thursday
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are more upbeat than the consensus on S32 and First Quantum’s EBITDA, but slightly less bullish on Warrior’s performance
We also await South African PGM mining statistics to be published on Thursday
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 120t of gold net in January, vs. the 76t net addition in December, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were recorded in every major region: 43t in North America, 13t in Europe and 62t in Asia. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 1,063t net (~14% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, and US, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above the level we see as fundamentally reasonable in the long term, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 120t of gold net in January, vs. the 76t net addition in December, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were recorded in every major region: 43t in North America, 13t in Europe and 62t in Asia. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 1,063t net (~14% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, and US, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above the level we see as fundamentally reasonable in the long term, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-January was 1.94mnt, down 2.2% from the previous ten days and also 8.3% lower YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 5.5% YoY in January. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 8.8% over the period and were 4.2% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-January was 1.94mnt, down 2.2% from the previous ten days and also 8.3% lower YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 5.5% YoY in January. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 8.8% over the period and were 4.2% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Global ETFs sold 41mnoz net of silver in January, reversing from the 35mnoz net gain in December, per fund data. The decline accounted for ~5% of their total silver holdings (~40% of global Ag demand in 2025E, in annualised terms), which was likely triggered by a significant correction in precious metals' prices in late-January. Meanwhile, silver ETF total holdings were still up 17% YoY at 824mnoz in January
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
🥈Global ETFs sold 41mnoz net of silver in January, reversing from the 35mnoz net gain in December, per fund data. The decline accounted for ~5% of their total silver holdings (~40% of global Ag demand in 2025E, in annualised terms), which was likely triggered by a significant correction in precious metals' prices in late-January. Meanwhile, silver ETF total holdings were still up 17% YoY at 824mnoz in January
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 50% YoY in January (domestic + export), accelerating from the +19% YoY in December, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 61% YoY (but still -46% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 50% YoY in January (domestic + export), accelerating from the +19% YoY in December, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 61% YoY (but still -46% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 1% YoY in January, vs. the +2% YoY seen in December. Total sales also remained below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 31% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 14% and 27% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures fell 10% and 22% vs. 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales were likely flat YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 1% YoY in January, vs. the +2% YoY seen in December. Total sales also remained below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 31% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 14% and 27% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures fell 10% and 22% vs. 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales were likely flat YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China decreased 3% YoY in January (vs. -6% YoY in December)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 5% YoY in January (vs. -14% YoY in December). However, the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term, in our view. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China were flat YoY in January, vs. the +7% YoY in December. Specifically, local BEV sales (63% of total EV registrations) gained 4% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 6% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China decreased 3% YoY in January (vs. -6% YoY in December)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 5% YoY in January (vs. -14% YoY in December). However, the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term, in our view. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China were flat YoY in January, vs. the +7% YoY in December. Specifically, local BEV sales (63% of total EV registrations) gained 4% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 6% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Week ahead data releases in M&M
Reporting season rumbles on, and this week global M&M companies are again set to be among the names publishing their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Regarding the major metals and mining sector names scheduled for this week, our EBITDA estimate for BHP is broadly in-line with the consensus, while we are moderately more bullish than the Street on Glencore, Rio, Anglo and Newmont
#reporting_season
Reporting season rumbles on, and this week global M&M companies are again set to be among the names publishing their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Regarding the major metals and mining sector names scheduled for this week, our EBITDA estimate for BHP is broadly in-line with the consensus, while we are moderately more bullish than the Street on Glencore, Rio, Anglo and Newmont
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 8% YoY in December, accelerating from the 3% YoY contraction in November, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production increased 1% YoY, reversing the 6% YoY decline in November
Local PGM supply is expected to contract gradually in the long-run (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040)
South Africa accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 8% YoY in December, accelerating from the 3% YoY contraction in November, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production increased 1% YoY, reversing the 6% YoY decline in November
Local PGM supply is expected to contract gradually in the long-run (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040)
South Africa accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports decreased 14% YoY in January, vs. the 17% YoY growth in December. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports declined 8% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 15% of total trading in value terms
In our view, implementation of the recent US-India trade agreement would be marginally positive for the diamond market in terms of trading activity; however, we maintain our outlook that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports decreased 14% YoY in January, vs. the 17% YoY growth in December. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports declined 8% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 15% of total trading in value terms
In our view, implementation of the recent US-India trade agreement would be marginally positive for the diamond market in terms of trading activity; however, we maintain our outlook that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output fell 3% YoY in December, vs. the 11% YoY decline in November. Overall, in 2025 local production inched up 1% YoY to 2.78mnt, which was broadly in line with the expectations of SNMPE, Peru's leading mining association (~2.80mnt in 2025 vs. 2.74mnt seen in 2024)
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 4% YoY in December and down 1% YoY in 2025
#copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output fell 3% YoY in December, vs. the 11% YoY decline in November. Overall, in 2025 local production inched up 1% YoY to 2.78mnt, which was broadly in line with the expectations of SNMPE, Peru's leading mining association (~2.80mnt in 2025 vs. 2.74mnt seen in 2024)
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 4% YoY in December and down 1% YoY in 2025
#copper
Morning Bites
💎Angola has reiterated its plan to increase annual diamond output to 17.5mnct by 2027, after the record high 14.0mnct it produced in 2025, IDEX reports, citing a representative of Endiama, the state-owned miner. The growth mainly reflects the ramp-up of the Luele mine, which, together with Catoca, account for more than 90% of Angola’s rough diamond supply
Thus Angola maintained its previously announced production guidance, despite the ongoing crisis on the global diamond market. Angola’s diamond revenue was up 21% YoY in 2025, but its average realised price dropped 29% YoY as the country opted to sell stockpiles rather than wait for a market recovery
We maintain our cautious view on the global diamond market, as supply discipline is unlikely to improve while Anglo American proceeds with the planned spinoff or sale of De Beers (~30% of global rough diamond supply). Angola's actions might further delay the recovery in rough prices, we believe
#diamonds
💎Angola has reiterated its plan to increase annual diamond output to 17.5mnct by 2027, after the record high 14.0mnct it produced in 2025, IDEX reports, citing a representative of Endiama, the state-owned miner. The growth mainly reflects the ramp-up of the Luele mine, which, together with Catoca, account for more than 90% of Angola’s rough diamond supply
Thus Angola maintained its previously announced production guidance, despite the ongoing crisis on the global diamond market. Angola’s diamond revenue was up 21% YoY in 2025, but its average realised price dropped 29% YoY as the country opted to sell stockpiles rather than wait for a market recovery
We maintain our cautious view on the global diamond market, as supply discipline is unlikely to improve while Anglo American proceeds with the planned spinoff or sale of De Beers (~30% of global rough diamond supply). Angola's actions might further delay the recovery in rough prices, we believe
#diamonds
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products was flat YoY in December, at 6.1mnt, as it was in November. In 2025, output declined 2% YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 2% YoY in December to 2.2mnt, vs. the 4% gain YoY in November. FY25 production rose 9% YoY. We reiterate our view that large scale grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies are likely to add further support to the red metal’s fundamentals. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products was flat YoY in December, at 6.1mnt, as it was in November. In 2025, output declined 2% YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 2% YoY in December to 2.2mnt, vs. the 4% gain YoY in November. FY25 production rose 9% YoY. We reiterate our view that large scale grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies are likely to add further support to the red metal’s fundamentals. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are almost in line with the consensus on their performance, although we are less upbeat on diamond miners’ (Lucara and Petra) EBITDA
We also await EU car registrations numbers and global steel production data to be published this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are almost in line with the consensus on their performance, although we are less upbeat on diamond miners’ (Lucara and Petra) EBITDA
We also await EU car registrations numbers and global steel production data to be published this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 1.3% YoY in January, after the 0.5% YoY gain in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.5% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in January, annualized output was 44.6mnt
Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 1.3% YoY in January, after the 0.5% YoY gain in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.5% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in January, annualized output was 44.6mnt
Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations fell 3% YoY in January, vs. the 6% YoY gain in December, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 21% lower than the pre-Covid level (January 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 7% YoY, which was partially offset by the strong BEV registrations (+20% YoY) last month
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations fell 3% YoY in January, vs. the 6% YoY gain in December, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 21% lower than the pre-Covid level (January 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 7% YoY, which was partially offset by the strong BEV registrations (+20% YoY) last month
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
#cars
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel