Morning Bites

🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 49.5 (vs. 48.8 in December), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 (from 47.9), expanding for the first time in 12 months

🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.3 (from 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.3 (from 50.1 earlier)

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings expanded last month in western economies - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures

#PMIs

Morning Bites

🏦 Global central banks bought net 35t of gold in December, vs. the purchases of 45t net in November, marking the 31th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data

Specifically, the main central bank gold buyers in December were Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (+15t, +10t and +8t, respectively); the only recorded seller was Singapore (-11t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks

#gold

Morning Bites (part 1)

🚘US light vehicle sales stood flat YoY in January, vs. the slight, 1% YoY decrease in December. Total car sales were also 3% below their pre-Covid (January 2019) level

To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, it is likely to be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe

On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024

#cars #PGMs

Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 14% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, per government data. According to Rapaport, local consumer sentiment remains solid, which would be a supportive factor for sales in the coming months

We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns

#diamonds

Morning Bites

📝AngloAmerican has lowered its copper and diamond production guidance for 2026

• Copper production is now seen at 700-760kt in 2026 (8% less than the previous estimate; the difference accounts for 0.2% of global Cu demand). 2027 guidance was reduced just 1%, mainly due to lower ore grades expected in Chile

Overall, concerns about a rising deficit for the red metal would remain a supportive factor for Cu market sentiment in 2026, we believe

• Diamond output: the outlook for 2026 was lowered 15% vs. the previous guidance to 21-26mnct, with no long-term forecasts provided. On our numbers, global gem-quality stone supply might drop ~10% in 2026 vs. 2024 level and >25% vs. 2015-19 average

Despite these cuts, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)

#diamonds #copper

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are more upbeat than the consensus on S32 and First Quantum’s EBITDA, but slightly less bullish on Warrior’s performance

We also await South African PGM mining statistics to be published on Thursday
 
#reporting_season

Morning Bites

📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 120t of gold net in January, vs. the 76t net addition in December, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were recorded in every major region: 43t in North America, 13t in Europe and 62t in Asia. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 1,063t net (~14% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, and US, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest

Although at spot gold continues to trade above the level we see as fundamentally reasonable in the long term, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-January was 1.94mnt, down 2.2% from the previous ten days and also 8.3% lower YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 5.5% YoY in January. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 8.8% over the period and were 4.2% lower YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply

#steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

🥈Global ETFs sold 41mnoz net of silver in January, reversing from the 35mnoz net gain in December, per fund data. The decline accounted for ~5% of their total silver holdings (~40% of global Ag demand in 2025E, in annualised terms), which was likely triggered by a significant correction in precious metals' prices in late-January. Meanwhile, silver ETF total holdings were still up 17% YoY at 824mnoz in January

Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe

#silver

Morning Bites

🏗China’s excavator sales rose 50% YoY in January (domestic + export), accelerating from the +19% YoY in December, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 61% YoY (but still -46% vs. the same period in 2021)

In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view

#steel

Morning Bites

🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 1% YoY in January, vs. the +2% YoY seen in December. Total sales also remained below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 31% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 14% and 27% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures fell 10% and 22% vs. 2019 levels

Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales were likely flat YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels

#cars #PGMs

Week ahead data releases in M&M

Reporting season rumbles on, and this week global M&M companies are again set to be among the names publishing their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Regarding the major metals and mining sector names scheduled for this week, our EBITDA estimate for BHP is broadly in-line with the consensus, while we are moderately more bullish than the Street on Glencore, Rio, Anglo and Newmont

#reporting_season

Morning Bites

🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 8% YoY in December, accelerating from the 3% YoY contraction in November, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production increased 1% YoY, reversing the 6% YoY decline in November

Local PGM supply is expected to contract gradually in the long-run (e.g., recent SBSW guidance until 2040)

South Africa accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production

#PGMs #gold

Morning Bites

💎India’s rough diamond net imports decreased 14% YoY in January, vs. the 17% YoY growth in December. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports declined 8% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 15% of total trading in value terms

In our view, implementation of the recent US-India trade agreement would be marginally positive for the diamond market in terms of trading activity; however, we maintain our outlook that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026

India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply

#diamonds

Morning Bites

💎Angola has reiterated its plan to increase annual diamond output to 17.5mnct by 2027, after the record high 14.0mnct it produced in 2025, IDEX reports, citing a representative of Endiama, the state-owned miner. The growth mainly reflects the ramp-up of the Luele mine, which, together with Catoca, account for more than 90% of Angola’s rough diamond supply

Thus Angola maintained its previously announced production guidance, despite the ongoing crisis on the global diamond market. Angola’s diamond revenue was up 21% YoY in 2025, but its average realised price dropped 29% YoY as the country opted to sell stockpiles rather than wait for a market recovery

We maintain our cautious view on the global diamond market, as supply discipline is unlikely to improve while Anglo American proceeds with the planned spinoff or sale of De Beers (~30% of global rough diamond supply). Angola's actions might further delay the recovery in rough prices, we believe

#diamonds