Morning Bites (part 2)

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 6% YoY in December, vs. the 1% YoY gain in November, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 2% YoY, which was offset by the strong BEVs registrations (+41% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 9% lower than the pre-Covid level (December 2019)

We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term

In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively

#cars

Morning Bites (part 1)
 
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 8% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 2% YoY gain in 3Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. The company noted solid performance of its high end jewellery collections

Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers in 2025, we maintain our cautious view on the prospects for global diamond market recovery (at least in 2026), given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about global trade disputes

#diamonds

Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇱Chile has revised down its medium-term mined copper production outlook for 2026-34, Reuters reports, citing a report from the country's copper commission (Cochilco). Its 2026 copper supply forecast is now 6% below the previous estimate (and, on average, 4% lower for 2026-31). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply)

To recap, Cochilco also materially cut its production guidance in early-2025, which was, on average, ~15% lower for 2028-34 than its 2023 estimates

We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper

Morning Bites

🏆Global physical gold demand decreased 11% YoY to 1,174t in 4Q25 (but was up 38% in value terms, as gold prices surged 55% YoY in 4Q25), vs. the 2% YoY decline in 3Q25, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery demand decreased 19% YoY in 4Q25, while official central bank purchases dropped 37% YoY from a high base. Among other key demand segments, robust growth was recorded in Bars&Coins (+30% YoY)

Meanwhile, despite lower physical purchases, total global gold demand was up 1% YoY in 4Q25 in volume terms, and +56% YoY in value terms, amid solid inflows into global ETFs. World mined gold output also grew 1% YoY in 4Q25

#gold

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in line with the consensus on Arcelor’s and Barrick’s EBITDA, but slightly more upbeat on Peabody

#reporting_season

Morning Bites

🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 5% YoY in December, broadly in line with the 7% YoY decrease in November, per the INE data. Overall, the country’s mined Cu production fell ~2% YoY in 2025.
Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply) has recently revised down its medium-term Cu production forecast. Specifically, its outlook for 2026 is now 6% below the previous estimate (implying only moderate YoY growth of 2-3%). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile

We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper

Morning Bites

🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 49.5 (vs. 48.8 in December), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 (from 47.9), expanding for the first time in 12 months

🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.3 (from 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.3 (from 50.1 earlier)

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings expanded last month in western economies - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures

#PMIs

Morning Bites

🏦 Global central banks bought net 35t of gold in December, vs. the purchases of 45t net in November, marking the 31th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data

Specifically, the main central bank gold buyers in December were Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (+15t, +10t and +8t, respectively); the only recorded seller was Singapore (-11t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks

#gold

Morning Bites (part 1)

🚘US light vehicle sales stood flat YoY in January, vs. the slight, 1% YoY decrease in December. Total car sales were also 3% below their pre-Covid (January 2019) level

To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, it is likely to be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe

On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024

#cars #PGMs

Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 14% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, per government data. According to Rapaport, local consumer sentiment remains solid, which would be a supportive factor for sales in the coming months

We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns

#diamonds

Morning Bites

📝AngloAmerican has lowered its copper and diamond production guidance for 2026

• Copper production is now seen at 700-760kt in 2026 (8% less than the previous estimate; the difference accounts for 0.2% of global Cu demand). 2027 guidance was reduced just 1%, mainly due to lower ore grades expected in Chile

Overall, concerns about a rising deficit for the red metal would remain a supportive factor for Cu market sentiment in 2026, we believe

• Diamond output: the outlook for 2026 was lowered 15% vs. the previous guidance to 21-26mnct, with no long-term forecasts provided. On our numbers, global gem-quality stone supply might drop ~10% in 2026 vs. 2024 level and >25% vs. 2015-19 average

Despite these cuts, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)

#diamonds #copper

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are more upbeat than the consensus on S32 and First Quantum’s EBITDA, but slightly less bullish on Warrior’s performance

We also await South African PGM mining statistics to be published on Thursday
 
#reporting_season

Morning Bites

📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 120t of gold net in January, vs. the 76t net addition in December, per World Gold Council data. The inflows were recorded in every major region: 43t in North America, 13t in Europe and 62t in Asia. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 1,063t net (~14% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, and US, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest

Although at spot gold continues to trade above the level we see as fundamentally reasonable in the long term, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-January was 1.94mnt, down 2.2% from the previous ten days and also 8.3% lower YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 5.5% YoY in January. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 8.8% over the period and were 4.2% lower YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply

#steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

🥈Global ETFs sold 41mnoz net of silver in January, reversing from the 35mnoz net gain in December, per fund data. The decline accounted for ~5% of their total silver holdings (~40% of global Ag demand in 2025E, in annualised terms), which was likely triggered by a significant correction in precious metals' prices in late-January. Meanwhile, silver ETF total holdings were still up 17% YoY at 824mnoz in January

Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe

#silver

Morning Bites

🏗China’s excavator sales rose 50% YoY in January (domestic + export), accelerating from the +19% YoY in December, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 61% YoY (but still -46% vs. the same period in 2021)

In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view

#steel

Morning Bites

🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 1% YoY in January, vs. the +2% YoY seen in December. Total sales also remained below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 31% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 14% and 27% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures fell 10% and 22% vs. 2019 levels

Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2025, the region’s car sales were likely flat YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels

#cars #PGMs