Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in December, in line with the dynamics seen November, according to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,100/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in December, in line with the dynamics seen November, according to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,100/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China decreased 6% YoY in December (vs. +3% YoY in November)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 14% YoY in December (vs. -6% YoY in November). However, the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China increased 7% YoY in December, vs. the +21% YoY in November. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 14% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 4% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China decreased 6% YoY in December (vs. +3% YoY in November)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales dropped 14% YoY in December (vs. -6% YoY in November). However, the exclusion of EV support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China increased 7% YoY in December, vs. the +21% YoY in November. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 14% YoY, while PHEVs shrank 4% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.6% YoY in November, vs. the revised decline of 2.6% YoY in October, the International Copper Study Group reports. On an 11mo25 basis, however, the figure was still up 1.0% YoY, mainly driven by higher output in the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, mainly driven by China (+5.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.6% YoY in November, vs. the revised decline of 2.6% YoY in October, the International Copper Study Group reports. On an 11mo25 basis, however, the figure was still up 1.0% YoY, mainly driven by higher output in the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, mainly driven by China (+5.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season is gaining momentum, only the Southern Copper (SCCO) among the major M&M companies is scheduled to release its 4Q25 financials this week. Overall, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus on the miner's EBITDA
We also expect EU car registrations data for 2025 to be released on Tuesday
#reporting_season
As the reporting season is gaining momentum, only the Southern Copper (SCCO) among the major M&M companies is scheduled to release its 4Q25 financials this week. Overall, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus on the miner's EBITDA
We also expect EU car registrations data for 2025 to be released on Tuesday
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 4% YoY in December to 140mnt, after the 5% drop YoY in November, per World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (49% of global crude steel supply) decreased 10% YoY (down 4% YoY in 2025), while world ex-China output rose 4% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian dropped 4% YoY, while EU production gained 4% YoY last month. Meanwhile, US production also increased 4% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 4% YoY in December to 140mnt, after the 5% drop YoY in November, per World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (49% of global crude steel supply) decreased 10% YoY (down 4% YoY in 2025), while world ex-China output rose 4% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian dropped 4% YoY, while EU production gained 4% YoY last month. Meanwhile, US production also increased 4% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-January was 1.98mnt, down 0.9% from the previous ten days and also 4.5% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 7.2% over the period and were 24.7% higher YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 3.9% YTD (through January-20)
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-January was 1.98mnt, down 0.9% from the previous ten days and also 4.5% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 7.2% over the period and were 24.7% higher YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 3.9% YTD (through January-20)
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 6% YoY in December, vs. the 1% YoY gain in November, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 2% YoY, which was offset by the strong BEVs registrations (+41% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 9% lower than the pre-Covid level (December 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 6% YoY in December, vs. the 1% YoY gain in November, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 2% YoY, which was offset by the strong BEVs registrations (+41% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 9% lower than the pre-Covid level (December 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 8% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 2% YoY gain in 3Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. The company noted solid performance of its high end jewellery collections
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers in 2025, we maintain our cautious view on the prospects for global diamond market recovery (at least in 2026), given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about global trade disputes
#diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 8% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 2% YoY gain in 3Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. The company noted solid performance of its high end jewellery collections
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers in 2025, we maintain our cautious view on the prospects for global diamond market recovery (at least in 2026), given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about global trade disputes
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇱Chile has revised down its medium-term mined copper production outlook for 2026-34, Reuters reports, citing a report from the country's copper commission (Cochilco). Its 2026 copper supply forecast is now 6% below the previous estimate (and, on average, 4% lower for 2026-31). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply)
To recap, Cochilco also materially cut its production guidance in early-2025, which was, on average, ~15% lower for 2028-34 than its 2023 estimates
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile has revised down its medium-term mined copper production outlook for 2026-34, Reuters reports, citing a report from the country's copper commission (Cochilco). Its 2026 copper supply forecast is now 6% below the previous estimate (and, on average, 4% lower for 2026-31). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply)
To recap, Cochilco also materially cut its production guidance in early-2025, which was, on average, ~15% lower for 2028-34 than its 2023 estimates
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU rose 5% YoY in 4Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe decreased 8% YoY in 4Q25, after the 2% YoY drop in 3Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 18% YoY (vs. -13% YoY in 3Q25), while diesel car sales declined 22% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Stronger HEV sales (+5% YoY in 4Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, the sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 40% YoY in 4Q25, after the +36% YoY in 3Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 41% YoY (vs. +27% YoY in 3Q25), while PHEV sales surged 37% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales increased to 69% (vs. 65% in 3Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU rose 5% YoY in 4Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe decreased 8% YoY in 4Q25, after the 2% YoY drop in 3Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 18% YoY (vs. -13% YoY in 3Q25), while diesel car sales declined 22% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Stronger HEV sales (+5% YoY in 4Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, the sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 40% YoY in 4Q25, after the +36% YoY in 3Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 41% YoY (vs. +27% YoY in 3Q25), while PHEV sales surged 37% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales increased to 69% (vs. 65% in 3Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🏆Global physical gold demand decreased 11% YoY to 1,174t in 4Q25 (but was up 38% in value terms, as gold prices surged 55% YoY in 4Q25), vs. the 2% YoY decline in 3Q25, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery demand decreased 19% YoY in 4Q25, while official central bank purchases dropped 37% YoY from a high base. Among other key demand segments, robust growth was recorded in Bars&Coins (+30% YoY)
Meanwhile, despite lower physical purchases, total global gold demand was up 1% YoY in 4Q25 in volume terms, and +56% YoY in value terms, amid solid inflows into global ETFs. World mined gold output also grew 1% YoY in 4Q25
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand decreased 11% YoY to 1,174t in 4Q25 (but was up 38% in value terms, as gold prices surged 55% YoY in 4Q25), vs. the 2% YoY decline in 3Q25, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery demand decreased 19% YoY in 4Q25, while official central bank purchases dropped 37% YoY from a high base. Among other key demand segments, robust growth was recorded in Bars&Coins (+30% YoY)
Meanwhile, despite lower physical purchases, total global gold demand was up 1% YoY in 4Q25 in volume terms, and +56% YoY in value terms, amid solid inflows into global ETFs. World mined gold output also grew 1% YoY in 4Q25
#gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in line with the consensus on Arcelor’s and Barrick’s EBITDA, but slightly more upbeat on Peabody
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in line with the consensus on Arcelor’s and Barrick’s EBITDA, but slightly more upbeat on Peabody
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 5% YoY in December, broadly in line with the 7% YoY decrease in November, per the INE data. Overall, the country’s mined Cu production fell ~2% YoY in 2025.
Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply) has recently revised down its medium-term Cu production forecast. Specifically, its outlook for 2026 is now 6% below the previous estimate (implying only moderate YoY growth of 2-3%). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 5% YoY in December, broadly in line with the 7% YoY decrease in November, per the INE data. Overall, the country’s mined Cu production fell ~2% YoY in 2025.
Chile (~24% of global mined Cu supply) has recently revised down its medium-term Cu production forecast. Specifically, its outlook for 2026 is now 6% below the previous estimate (implying only moderate YoY growth of 2-3%). The revision came amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in Chile
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 49.5 (vs. 48.8 in December), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 (from 47.9), expanding for the first time in 12 months
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.3 (from 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.3 (from 50.1 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings expanded last month in western economies - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 49.5 (vs. 48.8 in December), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 (from 47.9), expanding for the first time in 12 months
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.3 (from 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.3 (from 50.1 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings expanded last month in western economies - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks bought net 35t of gold in December, vs. the purchases of 45t net in November, marking the 31th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data
Specifically, the main central bank gold buyers in December were Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (+15t, +10t and +8t, respectively); the only recorded seller was Singapore (-11t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks bought net 35t of gold in December, vs. the purchases of 45t net in November, marking the 31th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data
Specifically, the main central bank gold buyers in December were Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (+15t, +10t and +8t, respectively); the only recorded seller was Singapore (-11t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales stood flat YoY in January, vs. the slight, 1% YoY decrease in December. Total car sales were also 3% below their pre-Covid (January 2019) level
To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, it is likely to be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales stood flat YoY in January, vs. the slight, 1% YoY decrease in December. Total car sales were also 3% below their pre-Covid (January 2019) level
To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, it is likely to be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 14% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, per government data. According to Rapaport, local consumer sentiment remains solid, which would be a supportive factor for sales in the coming months
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 14% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, per government data. According to Rapaport, local consumer sentiment remains solid, which would be a supportive factor for sales in the coming months
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
📝AngloAmerican has lowered its copper and diamond production guidance for 2026
• Copper production is now seen at 700-760kt in 2026 (8% less than the previous estimate; the difference accounts for 0.2% of global Cu demand). 2027 guidance was reduced just 1%, mainly due to lower ore grades expected in Chile
Overall, concerns about a rising deficit for the red metal would remain a supportive factor for Cu market sentiment in 2026, we believe
• Diamond output: the outlook for 2026 was lowered 15% vs. the previous guidance to 21-26mnct, with no long-term forecasts provided. On our numbers, global gem-quality stone supply might drop ~10% in 2026 vs. 2024 level and >25% vs. 2015-19 average
Despite these cuts, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)
#diamonds #copper
📝AngloAmerican has lowered its copper and diamond production guidance for 2026
• Copper production is now seen at 700-760kt in 2026 (8% less than the previous estimate; the difference accounts for 0.2% of global Cu demand). 2027 guidance was reduced just 1%, mainly due to lower ore grades expected in Chile
Overall, concerns about a rising deficit for the red metal would remain a supportive factor for Cu market sentiment in 2026, we believe
• Diamond output: the outlook for 2026 was lowered 15% vs. the previous guidance to 21-26mnct, with no long-term forecasts provided. On our numbers, global gem-quality stone supply might drop ~10% in 2026 vs. 2024 level and >25% vs. 2015-19 average
Despite these cuts, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy)
#diamonds #copper