Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised +10% YoY in September, per government data. According to Rapaport, the recovery in local sales continued amid improved consumer confidence and overall solid inbound tourism trends (the number of Mainland visitors was up 10% YoY in October)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised +10% YoY in September, per government data. According to Rapaport, the recovery in local sales continued amid improved consumer confidence and overall solid inbound tourism trends (the number of Mainland visitors was up 10% YoY in October)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ Ivanhoe has released downbeat copper production guidance for 2026-27, reflecting a slower recovery at its underground Kakula mine (~1.5% of global Cu supply), after the flooding in May. Before the accident, the company had expected to reach 600ktpa output already next year, but now the projections have been lowered to ~400kt for 2026 and ~520kt for 2027, according to the new guidance
To recap, Freeport McMoran has also recently revised down its 2026+ production expectations, following the accident at its flagship Grasberg mine (~3.0% of global Cu supply)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues (already underscored by negative spot TC/RC in China in 2025), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️ Ivanhoe has released downbeat copper production guidance for 2026-27, reflecting a slower recovery at its underground Kakula mine (~1.5% of global Cu supply), after the flooding in May. Before the accident, the company had expected to reach 600ktpa output already next year, but now the projections have been lowered to ~400kt for 2026 and ~520kt for 2027, according to the new guidance
To recap, Freeport McMoran has also recently revised down its 2026+ production expectations, following the accident at its flagship Grasberg mine (~3.0% of global Cu supply)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues (already underscored by negative spot TC/RC in China in 2025), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-14% vs. November 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 23% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 18% and 16% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-14% vs. November 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 23% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 18% and 16% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for November (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 8% YoY in November, reversing from the decrease of 13% YoY in October. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (down 4% YoY in 10mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 20% YoY in November, vs. the -10% YoY in October. According to Reuters, the decline was mostly due to heavy rains in Indonesia (the leading thermal coal supplier) that weighed on exports from the country, while some of its mines have also stopped production after reaching their quotas for 2025
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 8% YoY in November, reversing from the decrease of 13% YoY in October. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (down 4% YoY in 10mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 20% YoY in November, vs. the -10% YoY in October. According to Reuters, the decline was mostly due to heavy rains in Indonesia (the leading thermal coal supplier) that weighed on exports from the country, while some of its mines have also stopped production after reaching their quotas for 2025
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 38t of gold net in November, vs. the +55t net seen in October, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong in Asia (+24t), while North American and European funds also accumulated 7t and 8t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 852t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 38t of gold net in November, vs. the +55t net seen in October, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong in Asia (+24t), while North American and European funds also accumulated 7t and 8t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 852t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 7% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the decrease of 5% YoY seen in October. Total sales were also 10% below their pre-Covid (2019) levels
To recap, the new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 7% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the decrease of 5% YoY seen in October. Total sales were also 10% below their pre-Covid (2019) levels
To recap, the new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-November was 1.82mnt, down 6.4% vs. the previous ten days and 13.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 8.5% over the period, but were 8.6% higher YoY
CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 30 November), the local production slid 0.5% YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-November was 1.82mnt, down 6.4% vs. the previous ten days and 13.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 8.5% over the period, but were 8.6% higher YoY
CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 30 November), the local production slid 0.5% YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 14% YoY in November (domestic + export), accelerating from the +8% YoY in October, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 9% YoY (but still -30% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (-4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 14% YoY in November (domestic + export), accelerating from the +8% YoY in October, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 9% YoY (but still -30% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (-4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 7% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 5% YoY in September, per INE data. According to Reuters, citing Cochilco, copper production from the state-run Codelco company fell 14% YoY (following the recent accident at El Teniente mine), while the output at local Collahuasi mine, jointly operated by Anglo American and Glencore, also dropped 29% YoY
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and rising supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Teniente)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 7% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 5% YoY in September, per INE data. According to Reuters, citing Cochilco, copper production from the state-run Codelco company fell 14% YoY (following the recent accident at El Teniente mine), while the output at local Collahuasi mine, jointly operated by Anglo American and Glencore, also dropped 29% YoY
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and rising supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Teniente)
#copper
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports jumped 73% YoY in November (from the low base), vs. the decline of 44% YoY in October. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 19% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports surged 2.6x YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 12% of total trading in value terms
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026, as well as new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports jumped 73% YoY in November (from the low base), vs. the decline of 44% YoY in October. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 19% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports surged 2.6x YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 12% of total trading in value terms
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026, as well as new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for November (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 11% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the 12% YoY drop in October, per NBS data. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales decreased 18% YoY in November, after the 20% YoY decline in October; they were 55% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 28% YoY in November (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 35% YoY in November (-68% vs. 2021), while property completions were also down 25% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 11% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the 12% YoY drop in October, per NBS data. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales decreased 18% YoY in November, after the 20% YoY decline in October; they were 55% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 28% YoY in November (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 35% YoY in November (-68% vs. 2021), while property completions were also down 25% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 1)
⚒️Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which still forecasts the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-27, but highlights new supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, amid recent supply disruptions at major copper mines
• Nornickel also expects the Pd market to be broadly balanced in 2025-26. Meanwhile, it still forecasts a moderate deficit of 0.3mnoz (~4% of demand) on the Pt market in 2025-26
❗️In our view, the upcoming China 7 emissions standard might materially increase local autocatalyst PGM loadings, supporting Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a bigger surplus of 240-275kt in 2025-26 (vs. its previous estimate of 120kt in 2025), reflecting the ongoing growth in Indonesian output
#nickel #PGMs #copper
⚒️Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which still forecasts the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-27, but highlights new supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, amid recent supply disruptions at major copper mines
• Nornickel also expects the Pd market to be broadly balanced in 2025-26. Meanwhile, it still forecasts a moderate deficit of 0.3mnoz (~4% of demand) on the Pt market in 2025-26
❗️In our view, the upcoming China 7 emissions standard might materially increase local autocatalyst PGM loadings, supporting Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a bigger surplus of 240-275kt in 2025-26 (vs. its previous estimate of 120kt in 2025), reflecting the ongoing growth in Indonesian output
#nickel #PGMs #copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China is to regulate steel exports with a licence system from January 2026 as part of Beijing’s efforts to revive a depressed market, Reuters reports, citing a CISA statement. We remind readers that continuously soft local steel demand (amid the property sector downturn) led to abnormally high China’s steel export volumes (+25% YoY in 2024 and +7% YoY in 11mo25), weighing on global steel prices
In our view, new export control measures, aligned with new supply restrictions in China, might help to normalise the country’s outbound shipments and support global steel prices in 2026, as it gives Beijing a flexible administrative tool to slow or redirect steel exports without formally imposing quotas or tariffs
#steel
🏗China is to regulate steel exports with a licence system from January 2026 as part of Beijing’s efforts to revive a depressed market, Reuters reports, citing a CISA statement. We remind readers that continuously soft local steel demand (amid the property sector downturn) led to abnormally high China’s steel export volumes (+25% YoY in 2024 and +7% YoY in 11mo25), weighing on global steel prices
In our view, new export control measures, aligned with new supply restrictions in China, might help to normalise the country’s outbound shipments and support global steel prices in 2026, as it gives Beijing a flexible administrative tool to slow or redirect steel exports without formally imposing quotas or tariffs
#steel
Morning Bites
🚗 The European Commission has proposed easing the 2035 ban on the sale of new ICE-containing cars, shifting the target from vehicles having zero emissions to a 90% reduction in CO₂ from 2021 levels, Reuters reports. This proposal still requires approval by the EU Parliament and member states, but could effectively leave room for further production of local hybrid (PHEV/HEV/REEV) cars
In our view, the proposal reflects ongoing debates on softening or stretching the transition timeline, rather than a reversal toward ICEs. The full ban is unlikely to be cancelled, with a delay or more flexible approach seeming more realistic
Although the EU accounts for ~20% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, we do not expect a material effect on market fundamentals in the near term. However, the policy retreat is overall positive for sentiment on PGMs, we believe
#PGMs
🚗 The European Commission has proposed easing the 2035 ban on the sale of new ICE-containing cars, shifting the target from vehicles having zero emissions to a 90% reduction in CO₂ from 2021 levels, Reuters reports. This proposal still requires approval by the EU Parliament and member states, but could effectively leave room for further production of local hybrid (PHEV/HEV/REEV) cars
In our view, the proposal reflects ongoing debates on softening or stretching the transition timeline, rather than a reversal toward ICEs. The full ban is unlikely to be cancelled, with a delay or more flexible approach seeming more realistic
Although the EU accounts for ~20% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, we do not expect a material effect on market fundamentals in the near term. However, the policy retreat is overall positive for sentiment on PGMs, we believe
#PGMs
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-December was 1.87mnt, up 2.8% from the previous ten days, but 7.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also gained 3.3% over the period, and were 4.0% higher YoY
CISA data shows that, YTD through 10 December, local production slid 0.7% YoY; however, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-December was 1.87mnt, up 2.8% from the previous ten days, but 7.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also gained 3.3% over the period, and were 4.0% higher YoY
CISA data shows that, YTD through 10 December, local production slid 0.7% YoY; however, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel