Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗️China is considering new support measures for its struggling property market, as the slump in sales and prices has deepened in 2H25, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Beijing is considering providing mortgage subsidies (for the first time nationwide), raising income tax rebates for mortgages and lowering transaction costs
Although timing and the exact list of policies to be implemented are still uncertain, the move might bolster China’s construction activity (floor space starts declined 20% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026, especially if combined with new supply-side reform
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe
#steel #property
🏗️China is considering new support measures for its struggling property market, as the slump in sales and prices has deepened in 2H25, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Beijing is considering providing mortgage subsidies (for the first time nationwide), raising income tax rebates for mortgages and lowering transaction costs
Although timing and the exact list of policies to be implemented are still uncertain, the move might bolster China’s construction activity (floor space starts declined 20% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026, especially if combined with new supply-side reform
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe
#steel #property
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.6% YoY in October, vs. the revised increase of 1.2% YoY in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 10mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.6% YoY in October, vs. the revised increase of 1.2% YoY in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 10mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 6% YoY in October to 143mnt, vs. the 2% drop YoY in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 12% YoY (being down 4% YoY in 10mo25), while world ex-China output rose 1% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 6% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 6% YoY, being up 10% YoY on 10mo25 basis
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 6% YoY in October to 143mnt, vs. the 2% drop YoY in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 12% YoY (being down 4% YoY in 10mo25), while world ex-China output rose 1% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 6% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 6% YoY, being up 10% YoY on 10mo25 basis
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.4% YoY in September, in-line with the 1.2% YoY decline in August, the International Copper Study Group reports. The figure, however, was still up 1.9% YoY on a 9mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+2.8% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, being up 5.5% YoY in 9mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#Copper
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.4% YoY in September, in-line with the 1.2% YoY decline in August, the International Copper Study Group reports. The figure, however, was still up 1.9% YoY on a 9mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+2.8% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, being up 5.5% YoY in 9mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 7% YoY in October, vs. the expansion of 29% YoY in September, per NBS data. The figure was also up 40% YoY in 10mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 14% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 11% YoY in September, but was still 7% higher YoY on a 10mo25 basis
State Grid, which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity, guides for a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025 (broadly in line with 10mo25 dynamics)
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 7% YoY in October, vs. the expansion of 29% YoY in September, per NBS data. The figure was also up 40% YoY in 10mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 14% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 11% YoY in September, but was still 7% higher YoY on a 10mo25 basis
State Grid, which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity, guides for a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025 (broadly in line with 10mo25 dynamics)
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 32% YoY in October, vs. the decline of 55% YoY in September, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 38% YoY in 10mo25 terms
📸 Photovoltaic cell output in China rose 6% YoY in October, vs. the 34% YoY drop in September (which was mainly due to the high base effect). The local PV cells output was also up 27% YoY on 10mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 32% YoY in October, vs. the decline of 55% YoY in September, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 38% YoY in 10mo25 terms
📸 Photovoltaic cell output in China rose 6% YoY in October, vs. the 34% YoY drop in September (which was mainly due to the high base effect). The local PV cells output was also up 27% YoY on 10mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
⛏️ Codelco offered Chinese copper buyers a record high USD 350/t premium over LME prices for 2026 contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing people related to the pricing discussions. Meanwhile, for 2025, the premium was agreed at only USD 89/t
In our view, the rising copper premiums underscore the recent supply disruptions at major mines (that led to continuously negative spot TC/RC in China in 2025), as well as strong demand trends globally. Given the both short and long-term positive market fundamentals, we maintain our positive view on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,300/t in the 1H26
#copper
⛏️ Codelco offered Chinese copper buyers a record high USD 350/t premium over LME prices for 2026 contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing people related to the pricing discussions. Meanwhile, for 2025, the premium was agreed at only USD 89/t
In our view, the rising copper premiums underscore the recent supply disruptions at major mines (that led to continuously negative spot TC/RC in China in 2025), as well as strong demand trends globally. Given the both short and long-term positive market fundamentals, we maintain our positive view on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,300/t in the 1H26
#copper
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 4% YoY to 5.7mnt in October, vs. the 2% YoY decline in September. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products rose 2% YoY in October to 2.0mnt, vs. the +11% YoY in September. We reiterate our view that upbeat grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach, on average, USD 12,300/t in 2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 4% YoY to 5.7mnt in October, vs. the 2% YoY decline in September. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products rose 2% YoY in October to 2.0mnt, vs. the +11% YoY in September. We reiterate our view that upbeat grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach, on average, USD 12,300/t in 2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-November was 1.94mnt, up 0.9% vs. the previous ten days, but 6.6% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 0.8% over the period, and were 0.4% higher YoY
CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 20 November), production stood flat YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-November was 1.94mnt, up 0.9% vs. the previous ten days, but 6.6% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 0.8% over the period, and were 0.4% higher YoY
CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 20 November), production stood flat YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output increased 7.4% YoY in October, decelerating from the +11.6% YoY in September, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 10mo25 was up 5.8% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in late-2025 and 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 7.4% YoY in October, decelerating from the +11.6% YoY in September, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 10mo25 was up 5.8% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in late-2025 and 1H26, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 5% YoY in October, vs. the 11% YoY gain in September, per ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales inched down 1%, while the overall growth was driven by BEVs (+36% YoY) in October. However, the overall figure was still 10% lower than the pre-Covid level (October 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 5% YoY in October, vs. the 11% YoY gain in September, per ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales inched down 1%, while the overall growth was driven by BEVs (+36% YoY) in October. However, the overall figure was still 10% lower than the pre-Covid level (October 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed soft dynamics in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.7 (vs. 50.0 in October), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was down to 48.2 (from 48.7)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.2 (vs. 49.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 49.9
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings softened last month, underlining the weakness in the manufacturing activity of the world's key economies. However, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed soft dynamics in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.7 (vs. 50.0 in October), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was down to 48.2 (from 48.7)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.2 (vs. 49.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 49.9
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings softened last month, underlining the weakness in the manufacturing activity of the world's key economies. However, India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏️ China’s top copper smelters have agreed to cut production by more than 10% YoY in 2026, amid continuously tight concentrate supply, SMM reports, citing China Smelters Purchase Team discussions. To recap, spot TC/RCs (treatment and refining charges) in China turned negative in mid-2025, amid the recent supply disruptions at major mines
Furthermore, China’s expansion plans for some 2 mntpa of new smelting capacity have been halted
Given the both short and long-term positive market fundamentals, we maintain our positive view on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,300/t in the 1H26
#copper
⛏️ China’s top copper smelters have agreed to cut production by more than 10% YoY in 2026, amid continuously tight concentrate supply, SMM reports, citing China Smelters Purchase Team discussions. To recap, spot TC/RCs (treatment and refining charges) in China turned negative in mid-2025, amid the recent supply disruptions at major mines
Furthermore, China’s expansion plans for some 2 mntpa of new smelting capacity have been halted
Given the both short and long-term positive market fundamentals, we maintain our positive view on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,300/t in the 1H26
#copper
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 52t of gold in October, vs. the slightly revised +42t net in September, marking the 29th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in October were mainly recorded in Brazil, Poland (+16t each) and Uzbekistan (+9t), while the only notable seller was Russia (-3t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 52t of gold in October, vs. the slightly revised +42t net in September, marking the 29th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in October were mainly recorded in Brazil, Poland (+16t each) and Uzbekistan (+9t), while the only notable seller was Russia (-3t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 1H26, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised +10% YoY in September, per government data. According to Rapaport, the recovery in local sales continued amid improved consumer confidence and overall solid inbound tourism trends (the number of Mainland visitors was up 10% YoY in October)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised +10% YoY in September, per government data. According to Rapaport, the recovery in local sales continued amid improved consumer confidence and overall solid inbound tourism trends (the number of Mainland visitors was up 10% YoY in October)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds