Morning Bites
🌍 Guinea’s Simandou project has launched operations, with a staged ramp-up to 120mnt/a, according to a Rio Tinto press-release. The company has started the project's first iron ore shipments, while ramping up is expected to last some 30 months. Once at full capacity, the mine would account for roughly ~7% of global seaborne supply, in market terms.
In our view, Simandou, if the ramp up remains on schedule, might put downward pressure on global iron ore prices in the medium term—especially when combined with new steel supply restrictions in China.
#ironore #China #steel
🌍 Guinea’s Simandou project has launched operations, with a staged ramp-up to 120mnt/a, according to a Rio Tinto press-release. The company has started the project's first iron ore shipments, while ramping up is expected to last some 30 months. Once at full capacity, the mine would account for roughly ~7% of global seaborne supply, in market terms.
In our view, Simandou, if the ramp up remains on schedule, might put downward pressure on global iron ore prices in the medium term—especially when combined with new steel supply restrictions in China.
#ironore #China #steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 12% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY decline in September, per NBS data. The recent production declines are related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 20% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY decline in September, and were 52% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 29% YoY in October (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 30% YoY in October (63% lower than 2021), while property completions were also down 28% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 12% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY decline in September, per NBS data. The recent production declines are related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 20% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY decline in September, and were 52% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 29% YoY in October (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 30% YoY in October (63% lower than 2021), while property completions were also down 28% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 9% YoY in October (vs. the +15% YoY in September)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales inched down 1% YoY in October (vs. the +7% YoY in September). In our view, the recent exclusion of EVs support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to upcoming China 7 emissions standard, is likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term. The Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 20% YoY in October, vs. the +25% YoY seen in September. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 32% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 9% YoY in October (vs. the +15% YoY in September)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales inched down 1% YoY in October (vs. the +7% YoY in September). In our view, the recent exclusion of EVs support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to upcoming China 7 emissions standard, is likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term. The Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 20% YoY in October, vs. the +25% YoY seen in September. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 32% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 8% YoY in October (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in September, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were slightly up, by 2% YoY (-33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 8% YoY in October (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in September, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were slightly up, by 2% YoY (-33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-November was 1.93mnt, up 6.0% vs. the previous ten days, but 8.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 5.9% over the period, and were up 13.4% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10 November), production stood flat YoY; per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-November was 1.93mnt, up 6.0% vs. the previous ten days, but 8.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 5.9% over the period, and were up 13.4% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10 November), production stood flat YoY; per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output increased 4% YoY in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was up 6% YoY, vs. the 4% YoY decline in August
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output increased 4% YoY in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was up 6% YoY, vs. the 4% YoY decline in August
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 44% YoY in October, vs. the increase of 16% YoY in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 25% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 19% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading — a high since November 2023
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 44% YoY in October, vs. the increase of 16% YoY in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 25% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 19% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading — a high since November 2023
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛏️ Indonesia plans to cap coal production below 700mnt in 2026 to help stabilise global prices, local media report, citing the country’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. For context, in 2024, Indonesia produced 836mnt of coal, representing ~9% of global supply. The 2026 cap implies a drop off some 5% and 16% vs. the 2025 (~740mnt planned) and 2024 output levels, respectively
In our view, any material production tightening in Indonesia could bolster global thermal coal prices, as the country accounts for >40% of the world’s thermal coal exports (555mnt in 2024). To recap, at spot, FOB Newcastle (6,000kcal) price remains ~10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (~USD120/t, on our numbers)
#coal
⛏️ Indonesia plans to cap coal production below 700mnt in 2026 to help stabilise global prices, local media report, citing the country’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. For context, in 2024, Indonesia produced 836mnt of coal, representing ~9% of global supply. The 2026 cap implies a drop off some 5% and 16% vs. the 2025 (~740mnt planned) and 2024 output levels, respectively
In our view, any material production tightening in Indonesia could bolster global thermal coal prices, as the country accounts for >40% of the world’s thermal coal exports (555mnt in 2024). To recap, at spot, FOB Newcastle (6,000kcal) price remains ~10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (~USD120/t, on our numbers)
#coal
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗️China is considering new support measures for its struggling property market, as the slump in sales and prices has deepened in 2H25, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Beijing is considering providing mortgage subsidies (for the first time nationwide), raising income tax rebates for mortgages and lowering transaction costs
Although timing and the exact list of policies to be implemented are still uncertain, the move might bolster China’s construction activity (floor space starts declined 20% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026, especially if combined with new supply-side reform
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe
#steel #property
🏗️China is considering new support measures for its struggling property market, as the slump in sales and prices has deepened in 2H25, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Beijing is considering providing mortgage subsidies (for the first time nationwide), raising income tax rebates for mortgages and lowering transaction costs
Although timing and the exact list of policies to be implemented are still uncertain, the move might bolster China’s construction activity (floor space starts declined 20% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026, especially if combined with new supply-side reform
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe
#steel #property
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.6% YoY in October, vs. the revised increase of 1.2% YoY in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 10mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.6% YoY in October, vs. the revised increase of 1.2% YoY in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 10mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 6% YoY in October to 143mnt, vs. the 2% drop YoY in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 12% YoY (being down 4% YoY in 10mo25), while world ex-China output rose 1% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 6% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 6% YoY, being up 10% YoY on 10mo25 basis
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 6% YoY in October to 143mnt, vs. the 2% drop YoY in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 12% YoY (being down 4% YoY in 10mo25), while world ex-China output rose 1% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 6% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 6% YoY, being up 10% YoY on 10mo25 basis
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.4% YoY in September, in-line with the 1.2% YoY decline in August, the International Copper Study Group reports. The figure, however, was still up 1.9% YoY on a 9mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+2.8% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, being up 5.5% YoY in 9mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#Copper
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 1.4% YoY in September, in-line with the 1.2% YoY decline in August, the International Copper Study Group reports. The figure, however, was still up 1.9% YoY on a 9mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+2.8% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, being up 5.5% YoY in 9mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 7% YoY in October, vs. the expansion of 29% YoY in September, per NBS data. The figure was also up 40% YoY in 10mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 14% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 11% YoY in September, but was still 7% higher YoY on a 10mo25 basis
State Grid, which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity, guides for a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025 (broadly in line with 10mo25 dynamics)
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 7% YoY in October, vs. the expansion of 29% YoY in September, per NBS data. The figure was also up 40% YoY in 10mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 14% YoY in October, vs. the decrease of 11% YoY in September, but was still 7% higher YoY on a 10mo25 basis
State Grid, which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity, guides for a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025 (broadly in line with 10mo25 dynamics)
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 32% YoY in October, vs. the decline of 55% YoY in September, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 38% YoY in 10mo25 terms
📸 Photovoltaic cell output in China rose 6% YoY in October, vs. the 34% YoY drop in September (which was mainly due to the high base effect). The local PV cells output was also up 27% YoY on 10mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 32% YoY in October, vs. the decline of 55% YoY in September, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 38% YoY in 10mo25 terms
📸 Photovoltaic cell output in China rose 6% YoY in October, vs. the 34% YoY drop in September (which was mainly due to the high base effect). The local PV cells output was also up 27% YoY on 10mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium