Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in October, reversing the increase of 3% YoY in September. Although the figure is lower than the historical peak, it remains at elevated levels. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 9mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 10% YoY in October, vs. the -3% YoY in September. Per Reuters, the decline was mostly due to the effect of public holidays (fewer working days for October 2025). Although some market representatives expect imports to be supported by winter restocking in November-December 2025, we note already high coal inventories in China, representing ~15% of China's annual demand (as of mid-2025)
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in October, reversing the increase of 3% YoY in September. Although the figure is lower than the historical peak, it remains at elevated levels. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 9mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 10% YoY in October, vs. the -3% YoY in September. Per Reuters, the decline was mostly due to the effect of public holidays (fewer working days for October 2025). Although some market representatives expect imports to be supported by winter restocking in November-December 2025, we note already high coal inventories in China, representing ~15% of China's annual demand (as of mid-2025)
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 55t of gold net in October, vs. the near-record +145t net seen in September, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong in North America (+47t) and Asia (+45t), while European funds sold some 37t. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 813t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 55t of gold net in October, vs. the near-record +145t net seen in September, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong in North America (+47t) and Asia (+45t), while European funds sold some 37t. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 813t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several M&M names are still due to release their 3Q25 financials. Of major companies in our universe reporting this week, we are conservative on Barrick’s EBITDA, but more upbeat on Pan American’s performance
This week we also expect to see Chinese industrial production data for October, as well as South Africa's PGM and gold mining output for September
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several M&M names are still due to release their 3Q25 financials. Of major companies in our universe reporting this week, we are conservative on Barrick’s EBITDA, but more upbeat on Pan American’s performance
This week we also expect to see Chinese industrial production data for October, as well as South Africa's PGM and gold mining output for September
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
💎 Burgundy’s diamond output dropped 51% YoY in 3Q25 to 0.61mnct, while its quarterly sales also shrank 43% YoY to 0.81mnct, amid continuously weak rough prices, IDEX reports, citing the company’s statement. To recap, in July 2025 Burgundy halted some mining activities at part of Ekati’s mine (Point Lake) due to “sub-economic” prices
In our view, the ongoing operational challenges among junior miners (~⅓ of global rough supply) — e.g. Petra’s recent refinancing programme amid continously negative FCF — highlight the severe crisis on the global diamond market. Nevertheless, its recovery might take time due to still high midstream inventories and risks to supply discipline in 2025-26
#diamonds
💎 Burgundy’s diamond output dropped 51% YoY in 3Q25 to 0.61mnct, while its quarterly sales also shrank 43% YoY to 0.81mnct, amid continuously weak rough prices, IDEX reports, citing the company’s statement. To recap, in July 2025 Burgundy halted some mining activities at part of Ekati’s mine (Point Lake) due to “sub-economic” prices
In our view, the ongoing operational challenges among junior miners (~⅓ of global rough supply) — e.g. Petra’s recent refinancing programme amid continously negative FCF — highlight the severe crisis on the global diamond market. Nevertheless, its recovery might take time due to still high midstream inventories and risks to supply discipline in 2025-26
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 5% YoY in October, vs. the 10% YoY gain in September. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 26% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 20% and 12% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in mid-single digits YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 5% YoY in October, vs. the 10% YoY gain in September. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 26% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 20% and 12% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in mid-single digits YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in September, vs. the +16% YoY in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by improving local consumer sentiment and sustained growth in inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 7% YoY in September), as well as partly reflected high gold prices
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 9% YoY in September, vs. the +16% YoY in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by improving local consumer sentiment and sustained growth in inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 7% YoY in September), as well as partly reflected high gold prices
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎Mountain Province sales volumes in 3Q25 fell 40% YoY to 0.41mnct, with average realised prices down to USD 52/ct (vs. USD 72/ct a year ago), according to a company press-release. Overall, the revenue declined 58% YoY to USD 21.2mn
Meanwhile, the company’s mined production declined 16% YoY to 1.0mnct (MP’s share 0.49mnct) with FY25 guidance cut to 4.0-4.2mnct (vs. its previous estimate of 4.3-4.7mnct)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and risks to supply discipline in 2025-26. Mountain Province also flags US-India tariff tensions as a significant drag on trading. However, junior miners (~⅓ of global rough supply) are already facing financial troubles as well as production cuts, which might facilitate market recovery in the medium term, we believe
#diamonds
💎Mountain Province sales volumes in 3Q25 fell 40% YoY to 0.41mnct, with average realised prices down to USD 52/ct (vs. USD 72/ct a year ago), according to a company press-release. Overall, the revenue declined 58% YoY to USD 21.2mn
Meanwhile, the company’s mined production declined 16% YoY to 1.0mnct (MP’s share 0.49mnct) with FY25 guidance cut to 4.0-4.2mnct (vs. its previous estimate of 4.3-4.7mnct)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and risks to supply discipline in 2025-26. Mountain Province also flags US-India tariff tensions as a significant drag on trading. However, junior miners (~⅓ of global rough supply) are already facing financial troubles as well as production cuts, which might facilitate market recovery in the medium term, we believe
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 5% YoY in October, reversing from the 6% YoY gain in September. The negative dynamics were mainly driven by the EV segment as some key subsidies have expired. Total sales were also 8% below their pre-Covid (2019) levels
To recap, the new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 5% YoY in October, reversing from the 6% YoY gain in September. The negative dynamics were mainly driven by the EV segment as some key subsidies have expired. Total sales were also 8% below their pre-Covid (2019) levels
To recap, the new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🌍 Guinea’s Simandou project has launched operations, with a staged ramp-up to 120mnt/a, according to a Rio Tinto press-release. The company has started the project's first iron ore shipments, while ramping up is expected to last some 30 months. Once at full capacity, the mine would account for roughly ~7% of global seaborne supply, in market terms.
In our view, Simandou, if the ramp up remains on schedule, might put downward pressure on global iron ore prices in the medium term—especially when combined with new steel supply restrictions in China.
#ironore #China #steel
🌍 Guinea’s Simandou project has launched operations, with a staged ramp-up to 120mnt/a, according to a Rio Tinto press-release. The company has started the project's first iron ore shipments, while ramping up is expected to last some 30 months. Once at full capacity, the mine would account for roughly ~7% of global seaborne supply, in market terms.
In our view, Simandou, if the ramp up remains on schedule, might put downward pressure on global iron ore prices in the medium term—especially when combined with new steel supply restrictions in China.
#ironore #China #steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 12% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY decline in September, per NBS data. The recent production declines are related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 20% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY decline in September, and were 52% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 29% YoY in October (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 30% YoY in October (63% lower than 2021), while property completions were also down 28% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 12% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY decline in September, per NBS data. The recent production declines are related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 10mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 20% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY decline in September, and were 52% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 29% YoY in October (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 30% YoY in October (63% lower than 2021), while property completions were also down 28% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 9% YoY in October (vs. the +15% YoY in September)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales inched down 1% YoY in October (vs. the +7% YoY in September). In our view, the recent exclusion of EVs support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to upcoming China 7 emissions standard, is likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term. The Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 20% YoY in October, vs. the +25% YoY seen in September. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 32% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 9% YoY in October (vs. the +15% YoY in September)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales inched down 1% YoY in October (vs. the +7% YoY in September). In our view, the recent exclusion of EVs support from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan, as well as potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to upcoming China 7 emissions standard, is likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term. The Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 20% YoY in October, vs. the +25% YoY seen in September. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 32% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 8% YoY in October (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in September, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were slightly up, by 2% YoY (-33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 8% YoY in October (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in September, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were slightly up, by 2% YoY (-33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-November was 1.93mnt, up 6.0% vs. the previous ten days, but 8.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 5.9% over the period, and were up 13.4% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10 November), production stood flat YoY; per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-November was 1.93mnt, up 6.0% vs. the previous ten days, but 8.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 5.9% over the period, and were up 13.4% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10 November), production stood flat YoY; per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output increased 4% YoY in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was up 6% YoY, vs. the 4% YoY decline in August
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output increased 4% YoY in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was up 6% YoY, vs. the 4% YoY decline in August
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 44% YoY in October, vs. the increase of 16% YoY in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 25% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 19% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading — a high since November 2023
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports declined 44% YoY in October, vs. the increase of 16% YoY in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 25% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 19% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 20% of total trading — a high since November 2023
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛏️ Indonesia plans to cap coal production below 700mnt in 2026 to help stabilise global prices, local media report, citing the country’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. For context, in 2024, Indonesia produced 836mnt of coal, representing ~9% of global supply. The 2026 cap implies a drop off some 5% and 16% vs. the 2025 (~740mnt planned) and 2024 output levels, respectively
In our view, any material production tightening in Indonesia could bolster global thermal coal prices, as the country accounts for >40% of the world’s thermal coal exports (555mnt in 2024). To recap, at spot, FOB Newcastle (6,000kcal) price remains ~10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (~USD120/t, on our numbers)
#coal
⛏️ Indonesia plans to cap coal production below 700mnt in 2026 to help stabilise global prices, local media report, citing the country’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. For context, in 2024, Indonesia produced 836mnt of coal, representing ~9% of global supply. The 2026 cap implies a drop off some 5% and 16% vs. the 2025 (~740mnt planned) and 2024 output levels, respectively
In our view, any material production tightening in Indonesia could bolster global thermal coal prices, as the country accounts for >40% of the world’s thermal coal exports (555mnt in 2024). To recap, at spot, FOB Newcastle (6,000kcal) price remains ~10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (~USD120/t, on our numbers)
#coal
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the 7% YoY gain in 2Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted the broad-based rise in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment. Specifically, overall sales were up in the Asia Pacific (+4% YoY), Europe (+9% YoY), Americas (+12% YoY), Japan (+4%) and Middle East regions (+16% YoY)
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given risks to supply discipline (until De Beers spin-off, as it continues to trade even at weak prices) and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds