🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for March (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-April was reported at 2.20mnt, up 3.4% vs. the previous ten days, and +4.0% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.3% over the period (-12.1% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.0% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-April was reported at 2.20mnt, up 3.4% vs. the previous ten days, and +4.0% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.3% over the period (-12.1% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.0% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 24% YoY in February, vs. the 4% YoY decline in January, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 8% YoY, after the 1% increase YoY in January. According to local media, the weak performance was likely due to maintenance activities, exacerbated by heavy rainfalls, which temporarily disrupted operations at some mines in early-2025
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 24% YoY in February, vs. the 4% YoY decline in January, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 8% YoY, after the 1% increase YoY in January. According to local media, the weak performance was likely due to maintenance activities, exacerbated by heavy rainfalls, which temporarily disrupted operations at some mines in early-2025
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 1Q25 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are less upbeat vs. the consensus on major copper miners (e.g., Southern Copper and Teck), while we are more bullish on Agnico Eagle’s and Vale's performance
We also await EU car registrations data for March this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 1Q25 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are less upbeat vs. the consensus on major copper miners (e.g., Southern Copper and Teck), while we are more bullish on Agnico Eagle’s and Vale's performance
We also await EU car registrations data for March this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales gained 14% YoY in March, accelerating from the +5% YoY seen in January-February, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, local buying activity is picking up gradually, supporting orders for 0.3-0.5ct. stones, but overall Mainland demand for diamonds was weak last month
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales gained 14% YoY in March, accelerating from the +5% YoY seen in January-February, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, local buying activity is picking up gradually, supporting orders for 0.3-0.5ct. stones, but overall Mainland demand for diamonds was weak last month
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production inched up 0.4% YoY in February, vs. the +2.9% YoY in January, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 2mo25 basis, production was up 1.7% YoY: growth in Peru (+3.5%) and the DRC (+5.0%) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile (-4.0% YoY in 2mo25) due to lower output at Collahuasi, Los Pelambre and Codelco's mines
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, imply additional risks for base metals' demand
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production inched up 0.4% YoY in February, vs. the +2.9% YoY in January, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 2mo25 basis, production was up 1.7% YoY: growth in Peru (+3.5%) and the DRC (+5.0%) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile (-4.0% YoY in 2mo25) due to lower output at Collahuasi, Los Pelambre and Codelco's mines
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, imply additional risks for base metals' demand
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output slid 5% YoY in February, after the 2% YoY drop in January, per INE data. We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term supply issues (beyond 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output slid 5% YoY in February, after the 2% YoY drop in January, per INE data. We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term supply issues (beyond 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 18% YoY in March after +33% YoY in 2mo25, per NBS data. The figure was also up 25% YoY in 1Q25. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 65% YoY in March, vs. +2% YoY in January-February, per NEA data. The figure was up 17% YoY in 1Q25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 18% YoY in March after +33% YoY in 2mo25, per NBS data. The figure was also up 25% YoY in 1Q25. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 65% YoY in March, vs. +2% YoY in January-February, per NEA data. The figure was up 17% YoY in 1Q25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output rose 3% YoY to 166mnt in March, after the 3% YoY drop seen in February, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (56% of global crude steel supply in March) grew 5% YoY (per the WSA data), after the -3% YoY in February. Ex-China steel output rose 1% YoY. Specifically, last month Russia’s and US production dropped 3% and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU output was broadly flat YoY. Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 7% YoY, also being +7% YoY in 1Q25
We reiterate our view that additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could bolster the recovery in China's real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2025
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output rose 3% YoY to 166mnt in March, after the 3% YoY drop seen in February, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (56% of global crude steel supply in March) grew 5% YoY (per the WSA data), after the -3% YoY in February. Ex-China steel output rose 1% YoY. Specifically, last month Russia’s and US production dropped 3% and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU output was broadly flat YoY. Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 7% YoY, also being +7% YoY in 1Q25
We reiterate our view that additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could bolster the recovery in China's real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2025
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 3% YoY in March, reversing the 3% YoY decline in February. Growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+24% YoY in March), while catalyst-containing car sales slid 1% YoY; the figure matched our estimates, remaining 19% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster the PGM market fundamentals
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 3% YoY in March, reversing the 3% YoY decline in February. Growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+24% YoY in March), while catalyst-containing car sales slid 1% YoY; the figure matched our estimates, remaining 19% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster the PGM market fundamentals
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output was flat YoY in February, vs. the increase of 7% YoY in January, per MINEM data. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) fell 4% YoY in February, due to a slowdown in Chile’s output
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output was flat YoY in February, vs. the increase of 7% YoY in January, per MINEM data. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) fell 4% YoY in February, due to a slowdown in Chile’s output
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M names are set to publish their 1Q25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Arcelor Mittal's EBITDA is slightly more bullish than the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season continues, several M&M names are set to publish their 1Q25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Arcelor Mittal's EBITDA is slightly more bullish than the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.9% YoY in March, after the 9.1% YoY gain in February, per Rosstat data. The country’s output in 1Q25 was also up 5.3% YoY. Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.9% YoY in March, after the 9.1% YoY gain in February, per Rosstat data. The country’s output in 1Q25 was also up 5.3% YoY. Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-April was reported at 2.23mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 5.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 4.2% over the period (down 7.8% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.3% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-April was reported at 2.23mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 5.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 4.2% over the period (down 7.8% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.3% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇳 India plans to almost triple coking coal imports by 2030, amid limited supply and the ongoing ramp-up of local steel capacities, Reuters reports, citing the country’s Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik. Specifically, India's annual coking coal imports are expected to hit 160mnt (vs. current 58mnt) to match the country's ambitious steel production target of 300mnt by 2030 (vs. 150mnt in 2024)
We reiterate our view that India remains a key long-term driver for coking coal demand, as its potential ~100mnt increase in imports accounts for 1⁄3 of the global seaborne market in 2024. To recap, Indian steel output grew 6% YoY in 2024, and it’s gaining momentum having grown 7% YoY in 1Q25
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🇮🇳 India plans to almost triple coking coal imports by 2030, amid limited supply and the ongoing ramp-up of local steel capacities, Reuters reports, citing the country’s Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik. Specifically, India's annual coking coal imports are expected to hit 160mnt (vs. current 58mnt) to match the country's ambitious steel production target of 300mnt by 2030 (vs. 150mnt in 2024)
We reiterate our view that India remains a key long-term driver for coking coal demand, as its potential ~100mnt increase in imports accounts for 1⁄3 of the global seaborne market in 2024. To recap, Indian steel output grew 6% YoY in 2024, and it’s gaining momentum having grown 7% YoY in 1Q25
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.4% YoY in March, vs. the revised -0.4% YoY seen in February, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was flat YoY last month, while ex. China output jumped 3.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 3mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.4% YoY in March, vs. the revised -0.4% YoY seen in February, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was flat YoY last month, while ex. China output jumped 3.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 3mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium