Morning Bites (part 1)
🪨US President Donald Trump has signed four executive orders to boost the US coal industry, Reuters reports. The initiative outlined steps to protect coal-fired power plants (which now account for <20% of US power generation, vs. 50% in 2000) and expedite leases for local coal mining to meet rising power demand (from AI, data centers, etc)
Although Trump's order might bolster US coal supply, we do not expect a material impact on the global market, especially given the concerns of market participants about potential changes in future regulations and the availability of cheaper energy sources. Furthermore, the high cost of logistics make potential export sales unprofitable
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨US President Donald Trump has signed four executive orders to boost the US coal industry, Reuters reports. The initiative outlined steps to protect coal-fired power plants (which now account for <20% of US power generation, vs. 50% in 2000) and expedite leases for local coal mining to meet rising power demand (from AI, data centers, etc)
Although Trump's order might bolster US coal supply, we do not expect a material impact on the global market, especially given the concerns of market participants about potential changes in future regulations and the availability of cheaper energy sources. Furthermore, the high cost of logistics make potential export sales unprofitable
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 3% YoY in March, vs. the -2% YoY seen in February and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. March 2019). In Germany, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 32% and 11% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 22% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -5% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 3% YoY in March, vs. the -2% YoY seen in February and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. March 2019). In Germany, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 32% and 11% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 22% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -5% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to release its 1Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in line with the consensus
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to release its 1Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in line with the consensus
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for March (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in March, after the 8% gain YoY in January-February, as domestic steel demand is not recovering as much as expected, according to Reuters. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year; China's net steel exports (~10% of production in 2024) grew 25% last year, hence a 2.5% output cut could normalize export volumes
🪨China’s coal imports declined 6% YoY in March, vs. the +2% YoY in January-February. According to Reuters, the decline is due to high inventories at ports and weak domestic demand that has also pushed spot prices down to four-year lows
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in March, after the 8% gain YoY in January-February, as domestic steel demand is not recovering as much as expected, according to Reuters. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year; China's net steel exports (~10% of production in 2024) grew 25% last year, hence a 2.5% output cut could normalize export volumes
🪨China’s coal imports declined 6% YoY in March, vs. the +2% YoY in January-February. According to Reuters, the decline is due to high inventories at ports and weak domestic demand that has also pushed spot prices down to four-year lows
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 8% YoY in March (vs. +34% YoY in February)
📌China’s new ICE car sales fell 7% YoY in March, vs. the +12% YoY in February. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were flat YoY, as hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a supportive factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 40% YoY in March, vs. +87% YoY in February. Specifically, BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 42% YoY, while PHEVs also added 36% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 8% YoY in March (vs. +34% YoY in February)
📌China’s new ICE car sales fell 7% YoY in March, vs. the +12% YoY in February. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were flat YoY, as hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a supportive factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 40% YoY in March, vs. +87% YoY in February. Specifically, BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 42% YoY, while PHEVs also added 36% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were down 5% YoY in March, decelerating from the -49% YoY in February. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 6% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports plunged 33% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 4% of total trading
Although GJEPC had noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants emphasised that midstream inventories were still high in early-2025. Meanwhile, Indian diamond exporters now expect the new escalation in the US-China trade war to affect buyer confidence, at least in the short term. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were down 5% YoY in March, decelerating from the -49% YoY in February. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 6% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports plunged 33% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 4% of total trading
Although GJEPC had noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants emphasised that midstream inventories were still high in early-2025. Meanwhile, Indian diamond exporters now expect the new escalation in the US-China trade war to affect buyer confidence, at least in the short term. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for March (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-April was reported at 2.20mnt, up 3.4% vs. the previous ten days, and +4.0% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.3% over the period (-12.1% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.0% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-April was reported at 2.20mnt, up 3.4% vs. the previous ten days, and +4.0% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.3% over the period (-12.1% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.0% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 24% YoY in February, vs. the 4% YoY decline in January, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 8% YoY, after the 1% increase YoY in January. According to local media, the weak performance was likely due to maintenance activities, exacerbated by heavy rainfalls, which temporarily disrupted operations at some mines in early-2025
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 24% YoY in February, vs. the 4% YoY decline in January, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 8% YoY, after the 1% increase YoY in January. According to local media, the weak performance was likely due to maintenance activities, exacerbated by heavy rainfalls, which temporarily disrupted operations at some mines in early-2025
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 1Q25 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are less upbeat vs. the consensus on major copper miners (e.g., Southern Copper and Teck), while we are more bullish on Agnico Eagle’s and Vale's performance
We also await EU car registrations data for March this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 1Q25 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are less upbeat vs. the consensus on major copper miners (e.g., Southern Copper and Teck), while we are more bullish on Agnico Eagle’s and Vale's performance
We also await EU car registrations data for March this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales gained 14% YoY in March, accelerating from the +5% YoY seen in January-February, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, local buying activity is picking up gradually, supporting orders for 0.3-0.5ct. stones, but overall Mainland demand for diamonds was weak last month
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales gained 14% YoY in March, accelerating from the +5% YoY seen in January-February, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, local buying activity is picking up gradually, supporting orders for 0.3-0.5ct. stones, but overall Mainland demand for diamonds was weak last month
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production inched up 0.4% YoY in February, vs. the +2.9% YoY in January, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 2mo25 basis, production was up 1.7% YoY: growth in Peru (+3.5%) and the DRC (+5.0%) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile (-4.0% YoY in 2mo25) due to lower output at Collahuasi, Los Pelambre and Codelco's mines
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, imply additional risks for base metals' demand
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production inched up 0.4% YoY in February, vs. the +2.9% YoY in January, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 2mo25 basis, production was up 1.7% YoY: growth in Peru (+3.5%) and the DRC (+5.0%) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile (-4.0% YoY in 2mo25) due to lower output at Collahuasi, Los Pelambre and Codelco's mines
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, imply additional risks for base metals' demand
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output slid 5% YoY in February, after the 2% YoY drop in January, per INE data. We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term supply issues (beyond 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output slid 5% YoY in February, after the 2% YoY drop in January, per INE data. We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term supply issues (beyond 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 18% YoY in March after +33% YoY in 2mo25, per NBS data. The figure was also up 25% YoY in 1Q25. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 65% YoY in March, vs. +2% YoY in January-February, per NEA data. The figure was up 17% YoY in 1Q25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 18% YoY in March after +33% YoY in 2mo25, per NBS data. The figure was also up 25% YoY in 1Q25. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 65% YoY in March, vs. +2% YoY in January-February, per NEA data. The figure was up 17% YoY in 1Q25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports