Morning Bites

🏦 The PBoC purchased ~10t of gold in December, vs +5t in November, Bloomberg reports. Although PBoC did not report any purchases in May-October, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates). In our view, PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names (e.g., Erdemir, Arcelor and Peabody) are scheduled to release their 4Q24 financials this week. Our estimates for the steelmakers’ EBITDAs are mostly in line with the consensus, while we are less upbeat on Peabody’s performance

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events

Morning Bites

🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 4% YoY in November, after the +3% YoY in October, according to the official statistics. Meanwhile, local gold production dropped 12% YoY, accelerating from the -3% YoY in October. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the upcoming cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US, might bolster PGM prices in 2025

SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production

#PGMs #gold        
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Morning Bites

🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 46.6 (vs. 45.1 in December), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.9, having recovered to over 50.0 for the first time since early 2024

🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 49.1 (vs. 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.7 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️Global PMIs slightly improved in January (except for China), but EU index remains well below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in European manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s additional fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced in March 2025) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)

#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports

Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper output jumped 14% YoY in December, accelerating from the +10% YoY in November, according to the INE data. This marked the strongest monthly output ever, primarily due to improved supply at the Escondida and Collahuasi mines, as well as the ramp-up of the QB2 project. Overall, in 2024, the country’s Cu output was up 5% YoY

Despite the planned ramp-up of Chilean capacities in the near future, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues and growing demand for renewables globally, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper

Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped 14% YoY in December, accelerating from the -5% YoY seen in November, per government data. Overall, in FY24 local sales declined 14% YoY. According to Rapaport, HK sales dropped in December as residents preferred traveling abroad during the holiday period, and spent less domestically

Despite strong sales in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade), the diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated. In our view, the 2024 winter holidays sales did not bring much positivity, while midstream inventories remain elevated in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Morning Bites (part 1)

🏆Global physical gold demand rose 4% YoY to 1,308t in 4Q24, after the 20% YoY decline seen in 3Q24, according to the World Gold Council data. The figure was also down 5% YoY in FY24. Specifically, central bank purchases in 4Q24 surged 54% YoY (in FY24, they were -1% YoY), but gold jewellery demand was down 12% YoY

Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 4Q24 (flat YoY in 2024), thanks to solid ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output stood unchanged YoY in 4Q24 (also flat YoY in 2024)

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Morning Bites (part 2)

💎US jewellery sales grew 4% YoY in December, vs. the revised 3% YoY gain in November, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. Overall sales were up 5% YoY, on our numbers. According to Rapaport, US retailers faced a lack of special 3ct+ polished stones, with less-desirable items building up in inventories in December

Although the solid sales dynamics in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade) is favourable for sentiment, the diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given that there are still elevated midstream inventories in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Morning Bites
 
💎De Beers reduced its rough diamond output 23% YoY in 2024, and has lowered its production guidance for 2025-27, per an Anglo American press release. We remind readers that in 2024 the company had already lowered its diamond production guidance twice and cut rough prices three times (in total by ~20%), but market conditions remain soft, underpinning still high midstream inventories

According to the updated forecast, De Beers plans to produce 20-23mnct in 2025 (-30% vs. the previous guideline of 30-33mnct). Hence, its 2025 output may fall 10-15% YoY after the -23% YoY seen in 2024. The total 10mnct reduction in 2023-25 accounts up to 15% of global supply

In our view, supply-side discipline is a positive factor for diamond market sentiment. However, market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given there were still elevated midstream inventories in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 4Q24/2H24 financials this week. Our estimates for the miners’ EBITDAs are mostly in line with the consensus, while we are more upbeat on S32’s performance

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events

Morning Bites (part 1)

🏦 Global central banks sold net 3t of gold in December, vs. the revised +56t in November, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Kazakhstan (-11t) and Singapore (-3t), while only China officially purchased a notable amount of 10t. Although net outflows were recorded in December, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)

At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold    
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Morning Bites (part 2)

🚘US light vehicle sales were up 4% YoY in January, vs. the 2% YoY gain in December. The figure has almost recovered to the pre-Covid 2019 level (-3% vs. January 2019). According to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation. This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (similar to Germany's case), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe

On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
    
#cars  
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Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-January was reported at 2.11mnt, up 1.8% vs. the previous ten days, and +4.6% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 18.7% over the period (+25.8% YoY)

We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but that more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites

📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased net 34t of gold in January, after the +4t in December. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led global inflows last month (+39t), while North America remained the only region with net outflows (-6t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 174t (~5% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)

Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to ongoing geopolitical tensions

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports

Morning Bites (part 1)

📈Russia’s gold output rose 5.9% YoY in December, accelerating from the 1.4% YoY increase in November, per Rosstat data. Overall, in 2024, the country’s output was up 5.3% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023

Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Morning Bites (part 2)

🇵🇪Southern Copper aims to launch its long-delayed Tía María copper mine 2027, per a company press release. Although the Peruvian government approved Tía María’s construction in 2019 and Southern Copper resumed development in 1H24, the timing of the first production has now been revealed. To recap, the project was blocked by protests in 2011-2015, which led to its prolonged suspension

Once operational, the mine is expected to produce 120kt per annum (~0.5% of global mined Cu supply), which is still not enough to materially improve global supply constraints in the long-term

We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper

Morning Bites

🏦 The PBoC purchased 5t of gold in January, vs. +10t in December, according to official data. In our view, PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold, as the official statistics for 2024 reflect only 35% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in the near future, given the steady gold inflows into global ETFs and central banks

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues, many M&M names are scheduled to report their 4Q24/2H24 earnings this week. On EBITDA side, our forecasts are generally in-line with the consensus on the top miners (e.g., Vale, BHP, Glencore, Newmont), while we are more upbeat on some smaller producers’ performance — especially, on junior gold miners (e.g., Equinox, Torex, I Am Gold)

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-February was reported at 2.13mnt, up 1.0% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.9% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.6% over the period (+7.4% YoY)

We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the Chinese property sector, which is slowly picking up, but that more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output slid 7% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production dropped 8% YoY, albeit decelerating from the -12% YoY in November. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax) might bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025, we believe

SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production

#PGMs #gold        
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