Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇳 India’s gold imports nearly tripled YoY to a record 170 tons in November, mainly due to high festive and wedding demand, according to data from the commerce ministry. Specifically, Indian imports in November accounted for ~45% of global physical gold demand in 2023 (in annualised terms)
The news is supportive for the global sentiment on gold and underpins our bullish view on the precious metal
Historically, India is one of the world’s largest gold buying countries (~23% of global consumer gold demand in 2023)
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🇮🇳 India’s gold imports nearly tripled YoY to a record 170 tons in November, mainly due to high festive and wedding demand, according to data from the commerce ministry. Specifically, Indian imports in November accounted for ~45% of global physical gold demand in 2023 (in annualised terms)
The news is supportive for the global sentiment on gold and underpins our bullish view on the precious metal
Historically, India is one of the world’s largest gold buying countries (~23% of global consumer gold demand in 2023)
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-December was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.2% vs. the previous ten days, and up 4.8% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 December), output remained down 1.8% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories grew 7.8% over the period (+0.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-December was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.2% vs. the previous ten days, and up 4.8% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 December), output remained down 1.8% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories grew 7.8% over the period (+0.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales declined 35% YoY in November, picking up the pace from the 12% YoY decrease in October, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, engagement ring demand somewhat bolstered the local diamond market in November, but business was slower than in previous years
💎Burgundy has noted upbeat demand for mid- and large-sized rough diamonds in its late-2024 sales, per a company press release. According to the miner’s CEO, Kim Truter, the average realised price in December was USD 106/ct (vs. USD 103/ct and USD 83/ct in 2Q24-3Q24, respectively), which bodes well for a recovering diamond market
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (with ~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing industry destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales declined 35% YoY in November, picking up the pace from the 12% YoY decrease in October, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, engagement ring demand somewhat bolstered the local diamond market in November, but business was slower than in previous years
💎Burgundy has noted upbeat demand for mid- and large-sized rough diamonds in its late-2024 sales, per a company press release. According to the miner’s CEO, Kim Truter, the average realised price in December was USD 106/ct (vs. USD 103/ct and USD 83/ct in 2Q24-3Q24, respectively), which bodes well for a recovering diamond market
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (with ~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing industry destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛏ Indonesia is considering deep cuts in its 2025 nickel mining quotas to boost prices, Bloomberg reports, citing sources from the country’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. Per discussions within the government, ore mining quotas in Indonesia (~55% of global mined nickel supply in 2023) might be lowered to 150mnt in 2025, a significant drop from the 272mnt quota this year; however, we note that the final size of quota reductions, if they materialise at all, may be lower
In our view, such a step would help to stabilise the oversupplied (since 2022) global Ni market and create additional upside risks for the Ni price, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD ~20,000/t for 2025F)
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⛏ Indonesia is considering deep cuts in its 2025 nickel mining quotas to boost prices, Bloomberg reports, citing sources from the country’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. Per discussions within the government, ore mining quotas in Indonesia (~55% of global mined nickel supply in 2023) might be lowered to 150mnt in 2025, a significant drop from the 272mnt quota this year; however, we note that the final size of quota reductions, if they materialise at all, may be lower
In our view, such a step would help to stabilise the oversupplied (since 2022) global Ni market and create additional upside risks for the Ni price, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD ~20,000/t for 2025F)
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 2% YoY in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October. The figure came in slightly ahead of our estimates (-4% YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 2% YoY in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October. The figure came in slightly ahead of our estimates (-4% YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
💎LFL rough prices at the Petra Diamonds December auction dropped 7% vs. October tender amid a continued market weakness, while the 5.0-10.8ct stones saw 3% LFL price gain, the company has reported. The miner has also revised lower its average realized price assumptions for FY25 (ending Jun-25) by ~10%
According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, management is encouraged by the majors’ supply discipline measures and remains committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25. Specifically, Petra is to cut jobs within its South African operation's support teams to reduce costs, Rapaport reports
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in late-2024, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories. We believe that in 4Q24 polishers likely unwound most of their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at the Petra Diamonds December auction dropped 7% vs. October tender amid a continued market weakness, while the 5.0-10.8ct stones saw 3% LFL price gain, the company has reported. The miner has also revised lower its average realized price assumptions for FY25 (ending Jun-25) by ~10%
According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, management is encouraged by the majors’ supply discipline measures and remains committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25. Specifically, Petra is to cut jobs within its South African operation's support teams to reduce costs, Rapaport reports
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in late-2024, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories. We believe that in 4Q24 polishers likely unwound most of their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output rose 1% YoY to 147mnt in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) rose 3% YoY, broadly in line with October, while ex-China steel output slipped 2% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 9% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply gained 4% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) grew 5% YoY in November, and was up 6% YoY on the 11mo24 basis
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output rose 1% YoY to 147mnt in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) rose 3% YoY, broadly in line with October, while ex-China steel output slipped 2% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 9% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply gained 4% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) grew 5% YoY in November, and was up 6% YoY on the 11mo24 basis
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure grew 8% YoY in November, after the 17% YoY growth in October, according to the NBS data. On an 11mo24 basis, the figure jumped 19% YoY, and was 27% above the 11mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Cu and Al demand in China, so upbeat investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 18% YoY in November, vs. the 48% YoY gain in October, per NEA data. On a YTD basis, the figure grew 28% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure grew 8% YoY in November, after the 17% YoY growth in October, according to the NBS data. On an 11mo24 basis, the figure jumped 19% YoY, and was 27% above the 11mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Cu and Al demand in China, so upbeat investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 18% YoY in November, vs. the 48% YoY gain in October, per NEA data. On a YTD basis, the figure grew 28% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output inched up 1.4% YoY in November, decelerating from the +24.8% YoY in October, per Rosstat data. On an 11mo24 basis, the output was up 5.2% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for late-2024 (~USD 2,400/oz), we observe more upside risks in the precious metal’s price amid continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output inched up 1.4% YoY in November, decelerating from the +24.8% YoY in October, per Rosstat data. On an 11mo24 basis, the output was up 5.2% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for late-2024 (~USD 2,400/oz), we observe more upside risks in the precious metal’s price amid continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 3.0% YoY in November, vs. the 1.3% YoY gain in October, per International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 4.6% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,800-3,000/t for 2025, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 11mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 3.0% YoY in November, vs. the 1.3% YoY gain in October, per International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 4.6% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,800-3,000/t for 2025, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 11mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Dear Metals Wire subscribers,
Thank you for being with us in 2024. We wish you a happy New Year and hope your 2025 sparkles with opportunities and shines with success
We shall return in 2025, sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities and the most important industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
Thank you for being with us in 2024. We wish you a happy New Year and hope your 2025 sparkles with opportunities and shines with success
We shall return in 2025, sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities and the most important industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
❤5🍾3
Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.1 (almost in-line with November print), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3, surpassing market estimates of 48.4
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 50.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.5, below the forecast of 51.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.4 remains one of the most bullish indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In December, EU/US PMIs stood below 50.0, representing the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus and potentially greater fiscal support in 2025 might add some positive to local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.1 (almost in-line with November print), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3, surpassing market estimates of 48.4
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 50.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.5, below the forecast of 51.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.4 remains one of the most bullish indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In December, EU/US PMIs stood below 50.0, representing the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus and potentially greater fiscal support in 2025 might add some positive to local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎US jewellery sales grew 6% YoY in November 2024, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in October, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, US jewellery sales in November-December gained 4% YoY, implying a ~3% YoY increase in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas sales in December, on our numbers
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales grew 6% YoY in November 2024, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in October, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, US jewellery sales in November-December gained 4% YoY, implying a ~3% YoY increase in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas sales in December, on our numbers
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 53t of gold (net) in November, vs. the revised +48t in October, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+21t), Uzbekistan (+9t), and India (+8t). Meanwhile, Singapore sold 5t — the only significant sale
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 4t of gold (net) in December, vs. -29t in November. According to the WGC, Asian funds led in terms of global inflows (+9t), while North American funds sold 5t
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 53t of gold (net) in November, vs. the revised +48t in October, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+21t), Uzbekistan (+9t), and India (+8t). Meanwhile, Singapore sold 5t — the only significant sale
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 4t of gold (net) in December, vs. -29t in November. According to the WGC, Asian funds led in terms of global inflows (+9t), while North American funds sold 5t
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 16% YoY in December (domestic + export), after the 18% YoY growth in November, according to the CCMA data. Domestic sales were up 22% YoY (but were still down 40% from December 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November 2024)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 16% YoY in December (domestic + export), after the 18% YoY growth in November, according to the CCMA data. Domestic sales were up 22% YoY (but were still down 40% from December 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November 2024)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late December was reported at 1.87mnt, down 5.3% vs. the previous ten days, but up 12.4% YoY, from the low base. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 15.5% over the period (flat YoY). Per CISA data, during 2024, China's production slid 1.3% YoY
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late December was reported at 1.87mnt, down 5.3% vs. the previous ten days, but up 12.4% YoY, from the low base. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 15.5% over the period (flat YoY). Per CISA data, during 2024, China's production slid 1.3% YoY
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 29% YoY in December 2024, after the 19% YoY increase in November. Overall, the country’s net steel exports jumped 25% YoY in 2024, amid continuously soft domestic steel demand, that pushed local mills to ship more volumes overseas
Meanwhile, according to the CISA data, Chinese steel output inched down 1.3% YoY in 2024
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 11% YoY in December, decelerating from the 26% YoY growth in November. The figure was also up 14% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, the growth was driven by a decline in global coal prices, which forced buyers to replace domestic supplies with imports
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 29% YoY in December 2024, after the 19% YoY increase in November. Overall, the country’s net steel exports jumped 25% YoY in 2024, amid continuously soft domestic steel demand, that pushed local mills to ship more volumes overseas
Meanwhile, according to the CISA data, Chinese steel output inched down 1.3% YoY in 2024
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 11% YoY in December, decelerating from the 26% YoY growth in November. The figure was also up 14% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, the growth was driven by a decline in global coal prices, which forced buyers to replace domestic supplies with imports
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports