🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in October (vs. the 6% YoY drop in September). On a 10mo24 basis, output was 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
🏢China's property sales were roughly flat YoY in October (vs. -11% YoY in September), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans decreased 8% YoY in October, while property completions fell 20% YoY (vs. a 31% YoY drop the previous month). Although the Chinese property sector seems to us to be showing the first signs of recovery, bolstered by new economic stimulus, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in October (vs. the 6% YoY drop in September). On a 10mo24 basis, output was 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
🏢China's property sales were roughly flat YoY in October (vs. -11% YoY in September), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans decreased 8% YoY in October, while property completions fell 20% YoY (vs. a 31% YoY drop the previous month). Although the Chinese property sector seems to us to be showing the first signs of recovery, bolstered by new economic stimulus, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output grew 7% YoY in September, after the 5% YoY gain in August, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production shrank 4% YoY -- broadly in-line with the 4-5% YoY decline in July-August. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might trigger a recovery in PGM prices in 2025.
Furthermore, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax-reform legislation. In our view, this move, if it materialised, would notably affect local BEV sales (similar to Germany's case), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output grew 7% YoY in September, after the 5% YoY gain in August, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production shrank 4% YoY -- broadly in-line with the 4-5% YoY decline in July-August. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might trigger a recovery in PGM prices in 2025.
Furthermore, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax-reform legislation. In our view, this move, if it materialised, would notably affect local BEV sales (similar to Germany's case), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-November was reported at 2.10mnt, roughly in line with the previous ten days, and up 6.4% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 November), output was down 2.3% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories were also flat over the period (but -7.0% YoY). According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet.
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-November was reported at 2.10mnt, roughly in line with the previous ten days, and up 6.4% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 November), output was down 2.3% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories were also flat over the period (but -7.0% YoY). According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet.
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳China has cancelled the 13% tax rebates for aluminium and copper from 1 December, Bloomberg reports, citing China's authorities. After the announcement, LME Al prices jumped 7% on Friday (vs. Thursday) to USD 2,730/t. Meanwhile, LME Cu prices showed almost no reaction, as China is a net importer of the red metal
In our view, the policy change aims to keep more metal in China and would tighten the availability of Al in global markets, as China accounts for >40% of global aluminium exports
On our numbers, there is still much upside in Cu and Al: we see their fundamentally reasonable price for 2025 at USD ~12,000/t and USD ~3,000/t, respectively, given hefty grid investments in China, strong demand trends globally and the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China)
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳China has cancelled the 13% tax rebates for aluminium and copper from 1 December, Bloomberg reports, citing China's authorities. After the announcement, LME Al prices jumped 7% on Friday (vs. Thursday) to USD 2,730/t. Meanwhile, LME Cu prices showed almost no reaction, as China is a net importer of the red metal
In our view, the policy change aims to keep more metal in China and would tighten the availability of Al in global markets, as China accounts for >40% of global aluminium exports
On our numbers, there is still much upside in Cu and Al: we see their fundamentally reasonable price for 2025 at USD ~12,000/t and USD ~3,000/t, respectively, given hefty grid investments in China, strong demand trends globally and the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China)
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales dropped 12% YoY in October, reversing from the 11% YoY gain in September, according to the NBS data. Despite the soft results in October, local wholesale trading is expected to pick up in November ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales dropped 12% YoY in October, reversing from the 11% YoY gain in September, according to the NBS data. Despite the soft results in October, local wholesale trading is expected to pick up in November ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
📈China’s output of aluminium products grew 8% YoY to 5.9mnt in October, in line with September's dynamics. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. Although China's recent cancellation of its export tax rebate pushed LME Al price to USD 2,700/t last Friday (+7% vs. Thursday), we see even more upside in the metal, with the fundamentally reasonable price for 2025 at USD 3,000/t, on our numbers
🥉China's output of copper products was flat YoY in October, at 2.0mnt, in line with September. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal's price. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈China’s output of aluminium products grew 8% YoY to 5.9mnt in October, in line with September's dynamics. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. Although China's recent cancellation of its export tax rebate pushed LME Al price to USD 2,700/t last Friday (+7% vs. Thursday), we see even more upside in the metal, with the fundamentally reasonable price for 2025 at USD 3,000/t, on our numbers
🥉China's output of copper products was flat YoY in October, at 2.0mnt, in line with September. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal's price. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏦 China’s aggregate financing declined 24% YoY in October to CNY 1.40tn, accelerating from the 9% YoY drop in September (it was also -13% YoY on the 10mo24 basis). Traditional bank loans dropped 32% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 29%. According to Trading Economics, the previous month marked the lowest magnitude of new yuan loans extended since October 2009, reflecting soft demand for new investment projects in China
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing declined 24% YoY in October to CNY 1.40tn, accelerating from the 9% YoY drop in September (it was also -13% YoY on the 10mo24 basis). Traditional bank loans dropped 32% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 29%. According to Trading Economics, the previous month marked the lowest magnitude of new yuan loans extended since October 2009, reflecting soft demand for new investment projects in China
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations stood flat YoY in October, after the 4% YoY decrease in September. The dynamics were slightly above our estimates, while the figure remained 14% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025.
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively.
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations stood flat YoY in October, after the 4% YoY decrease in September. The dynamics were slightly above our estimates, while the figure remained 14% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025.
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively.
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗Global crude steel output stood flat YoY at 151mnt in October, after the 5% YoY drop in September, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply) rose 3% YoY, reversing from the 6% YoY drop in September, while ex-China steel output slipped 2% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 15% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply grew 6% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) also grew 2% YoY in October, and was up 6% YoY on the 10mo24 basis
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. In particular, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output stood flat YoY at 151mnt in October, after the 5% YoY drop in September, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply) rose 3% YoY, reversing from the 6% YoY drop in September, while ex-China steel output slipped 2% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 15% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply grew 6% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) also grew 2% YoY in October, and was up 6% YoY on the 10mo24 basis
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. In particular, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 1.3% YoY in October, in line with September's dynamics, according to International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was up 1.8% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) is likely to add further support to Al in 2025, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 3,000/t, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 10mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 1.3% YoY in October, in line with September's dynamics, according to International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was up 1.8% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) is likely to add further support to Al in 2025, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 3,000/t, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 10mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-November was reported at 2.08mnt, down 0.8% vs. the previous ten days but up 5.6% YoY. The YTD output (through 20 November) was down 2.1% YoY. Local steel inventories jumped 13.8% over the period (+1.4% YoY)
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-November was reported at 2.08mnt, down 0.8% vs. the previous ten days but up 5.6% YoY. The YTD output (through 20 November) was down 2.1% YoY. Local steel inventories jumped 13.8% over the period (+1.4% YoY)
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭 Rio Tinto has lifted restrictions on third party alumina exports from its Gladstone refineries in Australia, S&P Global reports. As Rio had previously announced, operations at the facility returned to normal capacity in 2H24 after an Queensland gas pipeline incident in May 2024
Although volumes from Gladstone represented <1% of global alumina supply in 2023, the resumption of shipments might at least partly help normalise the abnormally high alumina prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭 Rio Tinto has lifted restrictions on third party alumina exports from its Gladstone refineries in Australia, S&P Global reports. As Rio had previously announced, operations at the facility returned to normal capacity in 2H24 after an Queensland gas pipeline incident in May 2024
Although volumes from Gladstone represented <1% of global alumina supply in 2023, the resumption of shipments might at least partly help normalise the abnormally high alumina prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production stood broadly flat YoY in September, vs. the +2.2% YoY in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on the 9mo24 basis, output was up 1.8% YoY, while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.5% YoY in 9mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production stood broadly flat YoY in September, vs. the +2.2% YoY in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on the 9mo24 basis, output was up 1.8% YoY, while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.5% YoY in 9mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 17% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September, according to the NBS data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 21% YoY, and was 28% above the 10mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, so rising investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 48% YoY in October, according to the NEA data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 30% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 17% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September, according to the NBS data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 21% YoY, and was 28% above the 10mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, so rising investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 48% YoY in October, according to the NEA data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 30% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output jumped 24.8% YoY in October (mainly due to the low base effect from October 2023), reversing the 4.3% YoY decline in September, per Rosstat data. On a 10mo24 basis, the output was up 5.6% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output jumped 24.8% YoY in October (mainly due to the low base effect from October 2023), reversing the 4.3% YoY decline in September, per Rosstat data. On a 10mo24 basis, the output was up 5.6% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
💎 India — Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 15% YoY in 3Q24, following the 10% YoY growth in 2Q24. According to the retailer, the reduction in the local custom duty (from 15% to 6% in mid-2024) supported consumer interest as gold prices temporarily softened. Titan also noted healthy growth in the number of buyers in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) and India (~10%) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India — Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 15% YoY in 3Q24, following the 10% YoY growth in 2Q24. According to the retailer, the reduction in the local custom duty (from 15% to 6% in mid-2024) supported consumer interest as gold prices temporarily softened. Titan also noted healthy growth in the number of buyers in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) and India (~10%) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 13% YoY in November (domestic + export), in line with the +15% YoY in October, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 17% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 15% YoY this month (but still be 39% less than in November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 13% YoY in November (domestic + export), in line with the +15% YoY in October, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 17% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 15% YoY this month (but still be 39% less than in November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel