Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained soft in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.9 last month (vs. 45.0 in September). The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6 (from 47.2, missing market expectations of 47.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, surpassing the forecasts of 49.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was 57.4, remaining one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced this week) might bolster local demand for industrial metals in 4Q24-2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained soft in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.9 last month (vs. 45.0 in September). The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6 (from 47.2, missing market expectations of 47.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, surpassing the forecasts of 49.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was 57.4, remaining one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced this week) might bolster local demand for industrial metals in 4Q24-2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales rose 8% YoY in September, accelerating from the +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports. Much of this recovery was driven by multi-line retailers (Amazon, Costco and Walmart), accounting for 2/3 of all US watch and jewellery sales. Meanwhile, local jewelers started preparation for holiday season, but preferred taking goods on memo rather than investing in inventory, per Rapaport
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales fell 17% YoY in September, vs. the 24% YoY decline in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, consumers spent less on luxury items, while outbound tourism increased. However, local officials expect China’s new economic support measures to bolster HK retail sentiment and spending
We reiterate our view that solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales rose 8% YoY in September, accelerating from the +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports. Much of this recovery was driven by multi-line retailers (Amazon, Costco and Walmart), accounting for 2/3 of all US watch and jewellery sales. Meanwhile, local jewelers started preparation for holiday season, but preferred taking goods on memo rather than investing in inventory, per Rapaport
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales fell 17% YoY in September, vs. the 24% YoY decline in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, consumers spent less on luxury items, while outbound tourism increased. However, local officials expect China’s new economic support measures to bolster HK retail sentiment and spending
We reiterate our view that solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 46% YoY in October, accelerating from the +29% YoY in September. To recap, soft domestic demand has led to elevated exports in 10mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed in November) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 28% YoY in October, (mostly due to the low base effect from October 2023) after the +13% YoY in September. According to Bloomberg, Chinese utilities continued to build stockpiles and prepare for demand spikes over the colder season
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 46% YoY in October, accelerating from the +29% YoY in September. To recap, soft domestic demand has led to elevated exports in 10mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed in November) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 28% YoY in October, (mostly due to the low base effect from October 2023) after the +13% YoY in September. According to Bloomberg, Chinese utilities continued to build stockpiles and prepare for demand spikes over the colder season
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 3% YoY in October, after the 5% YoY slide in September, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-17% vs. October 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 28% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 20% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were 1% above
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 3% YoY in October, after the 5% YoY slide in September, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-17% vs. October 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 28% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 20% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were 1% above
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-October was reported at 2.09mnt, +1.0% vs. the previous ten days, and up 8.8% YoY (implying some 3% YoY growth in October). Meanwhile, on the 10mo24 basis, output was still down 2.6% YoY, according to the CISA data. Local steel inventories fell 11.8% over the period (they were also down 1.0% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed soon) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-October was reported at 2.09mnt, +1.0% vs. the previous ten days, and up 8.8% YoY (implying some 3% YoY growth in October). Meanwhile, on the 10mo24 basis, output was still down 2.6% YoY, according to the CISA data. Local steel inventories fell 11.8% over the period (they were also down 1.0% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed soon) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased net 43t of gold in October, after the +18t in September. According to the World Gold Council, North American funds led global inflows last month (+31t), while Europe remained the only region with net outflows (-11t). Overall, since ETFs’ return to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 164t, following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as geopolitical tensions globally
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased net 43t of gold in October, after the +18t in September. According to the World Gold Council, North American funds led global inflows last month (+31t), while Europe remained the only region with net outflows (-11t). Overall, since ETFs’ return to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 164t, following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as geopolitical tensions globally
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 3Q24 financials. In particular, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus on CSN’s EBITDA
This week is also due to bring the South African PGM mining statistics and Chinese industrial production data for October
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 3Q24 financials. In particular, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus on CSN’s EBITDA
This week is also due to bring the South African PGM mining statistics and Chinese industrial production data for October
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳China is to provide CNY 10tn (USD 1.4tn) of support for indebted local governments until 2028, Bloomberg reports. Such an increase in the debt limit would allow regional authorities to issue CNY 6tn in special bonds until 2026 to swap for hidden debt, in addition to the CNY 4tn in special bond quota to be approved in tranches over five years
Although Chinese policymakers have not announced any direct measures to stimulate domestic demand, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an has promised a more forceful fiscal policy in 2025, when officials could have greater clarity on changes in trade relations with the US
In our view, the YTD announced stimulus is likely to offer some support for the demand for industrial metals in 2025, but more action is still required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🇨🇳China is to provide CNY 10tn (USD 1.4tn) of support for indebted local governments until 2028, Bloomberg reports. Such an increase in the debt limit would allow regional authorities to issue CNY 6tn in special bonds until 2026 to swap for hidden debt, in addition to the CNY 4tn in special bond quota to be approved in tranches over five years
Although Chinese policymakers have not announced any direct measures to stimulate domestic demand, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an has promised a more forceful fiscal policy in 2025, when officials could have greater clarity on changes in trade relations with the US
In our view, the YTD announced stimulus is likely to offer some support for the demand for industrial metals in 2025, but more action is still required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 10% YoY in October, reversing from the 12% YoY drop in September. The figure remained 3% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Seasonally-adjusted sales volumes were up slightly, gaining 2% YoY last month (but were 4% below the 2019 level)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in the coming months. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 10% YoY in October, reversing from the 12% YoY drop in September. The figure remained 3% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Seasonally-adjusted sales volumes were up slightly, gaining 2% YoY last month (but were 4% below the 2019 level)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in the coming months. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 7% YoY in October (vs. -2% YoY in September)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 14% YoY in October, after the 22% YoY fall in September. The figures were well below their pre-Covid level (-31% vs. October 2019), amid growing appetite for EVs in China, which is affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined to 53% last month). We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 50% YoY in October, accelerating from the +42% YoY in September. Specifically, BEV (59% of total EV registrations vs. 68% a year ago) sales grew 30%, while PHEVs have added 89% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which also contain catalysts), this might add some support to the PGM market fundamentals in the medium term
In 1H24, China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 7% YoY in October (vs. -2% YoY in September)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 14% YoY in October, after the 22% YoY fall in September. The figures were well below their pre-Covid level (-31% vs. October 2019), amid growing appetite for EVs in China, which is affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined to 53% last month). We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 50% YoY in October, accelerating from the +42% YoY in September. Specifically, BEV (59% of total EV registrations vs. 68% a year ago) sales grew 30%, while PHEVs have added 89% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which also contain catalysts), this might add some support to the PGM market fundamentals in the medium term
In 1H24, China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
☢️The US plans to triple its national nuclear power capacity by 2050, Bloomberg reports, citing a government road map unveiled on Tuesday. Hence, the country aims to deploy an additional 200GW of nuclear energy capacity over the next 25 years by constructing new reactors, restarting plants and upgrading existing facilities. However, the White House plans to add only 35GW of new capacity by 2035 (vs. 97GW of currently operating), which would account for ~9% of global 2023 uranium demand, on our numbers
Overall, the plan, if it materialises, is likely to add long-term support to the uranium market fundamentals, as the US is the largest U consumer, accounting for 27% of global demand
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
☢️The US plans to triple its national nuclear power capacity by 2050, Bloomberg reports, citing a government road map unveiled on Tuesday. Hence, the country aims to deploy an additional 200GW of nuclear energy capacity over the next 25 years by constructing new reactors, restarting plants and upgrading existing facilities. However, the White House plans to add only 35GW of new capacity by 2035 (vs. 97GW of currently operating), which would account for ~9% of global 2023 uranium demand, on our numbers
Overall, the plan, if it materialises, is likely to add long-term support to the uranium market fundamentals, as the US is the largest U consumer, accounting for 27% of global demand
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales rose 2% YoY in 3Q24, in-line with the dynamics seen in 2Q24, according to the retailer’s press-release. Specifically, sales growth was again recorded in almost all regions, except Asia Pacific (-19% YoY): Americas (+10% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY), Middle East and Japan (+15-21% YoY, respectively)
We reiterate our view that the currently solid US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales rose 2% YoY in 3Q24, in-line with the dynamics seen in 2Q24, according to the retailer’s press-release. Specifically, sales growth was again recorded in almost all regions, except Asia Pacific (-19% YoY): Americas (+10% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY), Middle East and Japan (+15-21% YoY, respectively)
We reiterate our view that the currently solid US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports fell 35% YoY in October, accelerating from the 20% YoY drop in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 13% YoY (vs. -23% YoY a month ago). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 25% YoY, broadly in line with the -27% YoY seen in September. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 10%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24, polishers will further unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports fell 35% YoY in October, accelerating from the 20% YoY drop in September. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 13% YoY (vs. -23% YoY a month ago). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 25% YoY, broadly in line with the -27% YoY seen in September. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 10%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24, polishers will further unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 15% YoY in October (domestic + export), following the 11% YoY growth in September, according to the CCMA data. The figure also outpaced the CME estimates (+10% YoY). Domestic sales grew 9% YoY (but were still -34% vs. October 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local property sector has started to bottom out gradually
In our view, the YTD announced economic stimulus in China is likely to offer some support for the demand for industrial metals in 2025. However, more action is still required for a full-scale recovery in local construction activity
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 15% YoY in October (domestic + export), following the 11% YoY growth in September, according to the CCMA data. The figure also outpaced the CME estimates (+10% YoY). Domestic sales grew 9% YoY (but were still -34% vs. October 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local property sector has started to bottom out gradually
In our view, the YTD announced economic stimulus in China is likely to offer some support for the demand for industrial metals in 2025. However, more action is still required for a full-scale recovery in local construction activity
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in October (vs. the 6% YoY drop in September). On a 10mo24 basis, output was 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
🏢China's property sales were roughly flat YoY in October (vs. -11% YoY in September), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans decreased 8% YoY in October, while property completions fell 20% YoY (vs. a 31% YoY drop the previous month). Although the Chinese property sector seems to us to be showing the first signs of recovery, bolstered by new economic stimulus, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in October (vs. the 6% YoY drop in September). On a 10mo24 basis, output was 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to Bloomberg, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline after the rebound in export prices, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet
🏢China's property sales were roughly flat YoY in October (vs. -11% YoY in September), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans decreased 8% YoY in October, while property completions fell 20% YoY (vs. a 31% YoY drop the previous month). Although the Chinese property sector seems to us to be showing the first signs of recovery, bolstered by new economic stimulus, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel