Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output fell 15% YoY in December, after the flat dynamics seen in November, materially lower YoY on the back of Beijing's plan to keep national output no higher than the 2022 levels, we believe. Meanwhile, local steel production might decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), per the CISA estimates. To recap, China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢Property sales in China declined 23% YoY in December vs. -21% YoY in November, and were also 55% below the 2020 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts fell 12% YoY last month (+5% YoY in November), while personal mortgage loans were also down 23% YoY (-14% YoY in November). At the same time, property completions rose 13% YoY. Despite Beijing’s efforts to support the property sector, it remained broadly weak in 2023. However, new economic stimulus might bolster construction activity this year
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output fell 15% YoY in December, after the flat dynamics seen in November, materially lower YoY on the back of Beijing's plan to keep national output no higher than the 2022 levels, we believe. Meanwhile, local steel production might decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), per the CISA estimates. To recap, China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢Property sales in China declined 23% YoY in December vs. -21% YoY in November, and were also 55% below the 2020 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts fell 12% YoY last month (+5% YoY in November), while personal mortgage loans were also down 23% YoY (-14% YoY in November). At the same time, property completions rose 13% YoY. Despite Beijing’s efforts to support the property sector, it remained broadly weak in 2023. However, new economic stimulus might bolster construction activity this year
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output expanded 11% YoY in November, accelerating from the 2% YoY increase in October, per INEI data. On our numbers, local 11mo23 production was up ~14% YoY, which roughly meets the Peruvian government's plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% in 2023. Meanwhile, the country’s December 2023 comparison base will be higher, as Anglo American launched the Quellaveco copper mine in September 2022. Overall, in November, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) has only gained 3% YoY
To recap, Peru accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output expanded 11% YoY in November, accelerating from the 2% YoY increase in October, per INEI data. On our numbers, local 11mo23 production was up ~14% YoY, which roughly meets the Peruvian government's plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% in 2023. Meanwhile, the country’s December 2023 comparison base will be higher, as Anglo American launched the Quellaveco copper mine in September 2022. Overall, in November, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) has only gained 3% YoY
To recap, Peru accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎Petra Diamonds reported a 9% YoY drop in revenues in fiscal 1H24 (ended Dec-23), driven by the 13% YoY decrease in LFL rough diamond prices. To recap, the miner’s LFL prices plunged 16-18% at Tender 2 (vs. Tender 1). On our numbers, global junior miners (including Petra) have been loss-making at spot since mid-2023, indicating the limited potential downside for rough prices. Hence, if rough diamond prices start to recover in the next 2-3 months, that would be a strong signal of an upcoming market turnaround, we believe. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the company is seeing encouraging indications of a price recovery and some stabilisation in the rough diamond market, amid actions taken by both the upstream and the midstream
In addition, Petra has maintained its fiscal 2024 production guidance at 2.9-3.2mnct, while its fiscal 1H24 diamond output was up 2% YoY to 1.4mnct, following the ramp-up of the Williamson mine
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Petra Diamonds reported a 9% YoY drop in revenues in fiscal 1H24 (ended Dec-23), driven by the 13% YoY decrease in LFL rough diamond prices. To recap, the miner’s LFL prices plunged 16-18% at Tender 2 (vs. Tender 1). On our numbers, global junior miners (including Petra) have been loss-making at spot since mid-2023, indicating the limited potential downside for rough prices. Hence, if rough diamond prices start to recover in the next 2-3 months, that would be a strong signal of an upcoming market turnaround, we believe. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the company is seeing encouraging indications of a price recovery and some stabilisation in the rough diamond market, amid actions taken by both the upstream and the midstream
In addition, Petra has maintained its fiscal 2024 production guidance at 2.9-3.2mnct, while its fiscal 1H24 diamond output was up 2% YoY to 1.4mnct, following the ramp-up of the Williamson mine
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China’s aggregate financing rose 49% YoY in December to CNY 1.94tn, mainly due to the low base effect, although missing the consensus estimates of CNY 2.20tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans decreased 16% YoY (vs. -10% YoY in November), and were also 16% lower than the consensus forecast. Overall, for FY23, new bank lending reached a record CNY 22.75tn, marking a 7% YoY increase. According to Trading Economics, the People's Bank of China is likely to intensify liquidity injections and consider potential interest rate cuts on the back of low inflation (0.7% in 2023) in the upcoming months, aligning with its efforts to stimulate the economy and the local property sector
We remind readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦China’s aggregate financing rose 49% YoY in December to CNY 1.94tn, mainly due to the low base effect, although missing the consensus estimates of CNY 2.20tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans decreased 16% YoY (vs. -10% YoY in November), and were also 16% lower than the consensus forecast. Overall, for FY23, new bank lending reached a record CNY 22.75tn, marking a 7% YoY increase. According to Trading Economics, the People's Bank of China is likely to intensify liquidity injections and consider potential interest rate cuts on the back of low inflation (0.7% in 2023) in the upcoming months, aligning with its efforts to stimulate the economy and the local property sector
We remind readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales slid 9% YoY in December, after four months of consecutive gains. Meanwhile, the sales were roughly in line with their pre-Covid levels (+1% vs. Dec-19). Although local trading showed rather soft dynamics toward the end of 2023, this might have been at least partially driven by a later start of the Lunar New Year holiday (10 February in 2024 vs. 22 January in 2023). At the same time, sentiment in the major US downstream market (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), remained broadly stable in December, according to Rapaport
We maintain our view that further improvement of consumer sentiment in the (key) US and Chinese markets, which jointly represent ~65% of the world's polished demand, would be of paramount importance for supporting the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales slid 9% YoY in December, after four months of consecutive gains. Meanwhile, the sales were roughly in line with their pre-Covid levels (+1% vs. Dec-19). Although local trading showed rather soft dynamics toward the end of 2023, this might have been at least partially driven by a later start of the Lunar New Year holiday (10 February in 2024 vs. 22 January in 2023). At the same time, sentiment in the major US downstream market (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), remained broadly stable in December, according to Rapaport
We maintain our view that further improvement of consumer sentiment in the (key) US and Chinese markets, which jointly represent ~65% of the world's polished demand, would be of paramount importance for supporting the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🔋Albemarle is halting its expansion and cutting jobs amid plunging lithium prices, we understand from a company press-release. The world’s largest Li mining company (21% of global supply in 2022) has announced vast plans to slash business costs on the back of low lithium prices (-80% vs. 2022 highs). Albemarle expects this year’s Capex at USD 1.6-1.8bn, vs. USD 2.1bn spent in 2023. However, the company noted that it remained focused on potentially reopening its Kings Mountain mine in the US, with initial capacity of 50kt LCE (6% of global Li supply in 2022). Overall, the news might indicate a little potential downside for already subdued Li prices, as developing new projects has become unprofitable at current levels
#lithium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔋Albemarle is halting its expansion and cutting jobs amid plunging lithium prices, we understand from a company press-release. The world’s largest Li mining company (21% of global supply in 2022) has announced vast plans to slash business costs on the back of low lithium prices (-80% vs. 2022 highs). Albemarle expects this year’s Capex at USD 1.6-1.8bn, vs. USD 2.1bn spent in 2023. However, the company noted that it remained focused on potentially reopening its Kings Mountain mine in the US, with initial capacity of 50kt LCE (6% of global Li supply in 2022). Overall, the news might indicate a little potential downside for already subdued Li prices, as developing new projects has become unprofitable at current levels
#lithium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
👍2
Alcoa 4Q23 results - EBITDA remains subdued
✏️Alcoa's 4Q23 revenues met the consensus and were broadly in line with us. However, EBITDA remained materially depressed (-84% vs. the 2022 avg.), on the back of weak Al prices and the persistent inflationary pressures (specifically, driven by high EU energy costs)
🔮 For 2024, the company expects 9.8-10.0mnt of alumina output (-9% YoY), with shipments of 12.7-12.9mnt (flat YoY), reflecting externally sourced alumina due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, Alcoa added
📌 Meanwhile, the aluminium segment's output is seen at 2.2-2.3mnt in 2024 (+6% YoY amid smelter restarts), with shipments at 2.5-2.6mnt (+2% YoY) as increased sales from restarted smelters are offset by lower trading volumes
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 1Q24F EBITDA to remain at subdued levels, as the prices of its key metals remain low, while the company anticipates higher maintenance costs and lower shipments in Australia in 1Q24
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_U
✏️Alcoa's 4Q23 revenues met the consensus and were broadly in line with us. However, EBITDA remained materially depressed (-84% vs. the 2022 avg.), on the back of weak Al prices and the persistent inflationary pressures (specifically, driven by high EU energy costs)
🔮 For 2024, the company expects 9.8-10.0mnt of alumina output (-9% YoY), with shipments of 12.7-12.9mnt (flat YoY), reflecting externally sourced alumina due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, Alcoa added
📌 Meanwhile, the aluminium segment's output is seen at 2.2-2.3mnt in 2024 (+6% YoY amid smelter restarts), with shipments at 2.5-2.6mnt (+2% YoY) as increased sales from restarted smelters are offset by lower trading volumes
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 1Q24F EBITDA to remain at subdued levels, as the prices of its key metals remain low, while the company anticipates higher maintenance costs and lower shipments in Australia in 1Q24
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_U
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q23 LFL sales rose 37% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (in line with the +36% YoY in 3Q23). Meanwhile, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down only 2% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q23). At the same time, HK and Macau sales surged 46% YoY (but were -9% vs. 2019, on our numbers), as the border with Mainland China reopened in early 2023. Luk Fook expects the strong growth momentum to continue in the HK and Macau markets. In our view, were consumer sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets to improve further in early 2024 (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively), that might add support to the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q23 LFL sales rose 37% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (in line with the +36% YoY in 3Q23). Meanwhile, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down only 2% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q23). At the same time, HK and Macau sales surged 46% YoY (but were -9% vs. 2019, on our numbers), as the border with Mainland China reopened in early 2023. Luk Fook expects the strong growth momentum to continue in the HK and Macau markets. In our view, were consumer sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets to improve further in early 2024 (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively), that might add support to the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in December, marking the first decline in 17 months - in line with our estimates. At the same time, the sales remained 17% below their pre-COVID, 2019 level (-11% in November). In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to recover in the short term, amid the ongoing inflationary pressures and slow economic activity in the region (indicated by persistently weak local PMI data), which might put additional pressure on global PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in December, marking the first decline in 17 months - in line with our estimates. At the same time, the sales remained 17% below their pre-COVID, 2019 level (-11% in November). In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to recover in the short term, amid the ongoing inflationary pressures and slow economic activity in the region (indicated by persistently weak local PMI data), which might put additional pressure on global PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 15% YoY in November (partially due to the low base effect), following the 17% YoY spike in October, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production declined 3% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in October). Although the country's PGM production recovered somewhat in November, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have announced job cuts in response to the low PGM prices and local infrastructure challenges. At the same time, the demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 15% YoY in November (partially due to the low base effect), following the 17% YoY spike in October, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production declined 3% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in October). Although the country's PGM production recovered somewhat in November, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have announced job cuts in response to the low PGM prices and local infrastructure challenges. At the same time, the demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, among the major miners, only Freeport McMoran is due to release its 4Q23 earnings. Our forecast for the company's EBITDA is moderately above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, among the major miners, only Freeport McMoran is due to release its 4Q23 earnings. Our forecast for the company's EBITDA is moderately above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe were up 1% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the 3Q23 dynamics. Petrol car sales rose 6% YoY (vs. +5% YoY in 3Q23), while diesel car registrations fell 11% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car sales, 1pp lower than in 3Q23. Generally, sales remained well below the 2019 levels, which is a negative factor for PGM prices: the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe declined 9% YoY in 4Q23, mostly due to the high base effect, after the +35% YoY seen in 3Q23. Specifically, BEV sales were down 4% YoY (vs. +50% YoY in 3Q23), while PHEV sales fell 17% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales decreased slightly to 67%, from 69% in 3Q23. Overall, the growing appetite for EVs is likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (e.g. nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe were up 1% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the 3Q23 dynamics. Petrol car sales rose 6% YoY (vs. +5% YoY in 3Q23), while diesel car registrations fell 11% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car sales, 1pp lower than in 3Q23. Generally, sales remained well below the 2019 levels, which is a negative factor for PGM prices: the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe declined 9% YoY in 4Q23, mostly due to the high base effect, after the +35% YoY seen in 3Q23. Specifically, BEV sales were down 4% YoY (vs. +50% YoY in 3Q23), while PHEV sales fell 17% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales decreased slightly to 67%, from 69% in 3Q23. Overall, the growing appetite for EVs is likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (e.g. nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q23, accelerating from +1% YoY in 3Q23, according to a company press-release. Specifically, the sales growth was recorded across almost all regions, primarily driven by Japan (+8% YoY), Asia Pacific (+8% YoY) and the Americas (+3% YoY), while the slowdown in Europe (-4% YoY) was mainly due to a drop in tourist spending, Richemont explained. Although the company did not provide an outlook for 2024 sales yet, we believe that further consumer sentiment improvement in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q23, accelerating from +1% YoY in 3Q23, according to a company press-release. Specifically, the sales growth was recorded across almost all regions, primarily driven by Japan (+8% YoY), Asia Pacific (+8% YoY) and the Americas (+3% YoY), while the slowdown in Europe (-4% YoY) was mainly due to a drop in tourist spending, Richemont explained. Although the company did not provide an outlook for 2024 sales yet, we believe that further consumer sentiment improvement in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎GJEPC has asked the Indian government to cut import duties on rough stones from 5% to 2.5%, as it seeks to support the local diamond industry’s competitiveness in the international market, IDEX reports. Were this to be accepted, in addition to the other potential breaks in India's upcoming Union Budget (due on 1 February), that would notably bolster the local midstream margin (which has historically been at 2-5%). Hence, the measure would support global rough demand, as well as an overall recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe
To recap, India accounts for ~95% of the world’s polished stones supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎GJEPC has asked the Indian government to cut import duties on rough stones from 5% to 2.5%, as it seeks to support the local diamond industry’s competitiveness in the international market, IDEX reports. Were this to be accepted, in addition to the other potential breaks in India's upcoming Union Budget (due on 1 February), that would notably bolster the local midstream margin (which has historically been at 2-5%). Hence, the measure would support global rough demand, as well as an overall recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe
To recap, India accounts for ~95% of the world’s polished stones supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 2% YoY in December, in line with the revised 2% YoY growth in November, the International Aluminium Institute reports. China’s output (59% of global Al output in 2023) rose 2% YoY (also +3% YoY in 2023), following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, a recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by a new economic stimulus, remains the main potential trigger for subdued Al prices (-20% at spot vs. the 2022 average), with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers
Regarding the outlook for 2024, some industry participants expect China’s aluminium supply to rise >2% YoY to 42.7mnt, as new projects could start up in 3Q24
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 2% YoY in December, in line with the revised 2% YoY growth in November, the International Aluminium Institute reports. China’s output (59% of global Al output in 2023) rose 2% YoY (also +3% YoY in 2023), following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, a recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by a new economic stimulus, remains the main potential trigger for subdued Al prices (-20% at spot vs. the 2022 average), with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers
Regarding the outlook for 2024, some industry participants expect China’s aluminium supply to rise >2% YoY to 42.7mnt, as new projects could start up in 3Q24
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏Wyloo has halted nickel mining in Western Australia due to low prices, Reuters reports, citing a company statement. On our numbers, the miner’s Kambalda operations account for ~1% of global class-1 Ni supply and 0.3% of total Ni output. To recap, First Quantum has also recently shut down its Ravensthorpe nickel mine for two years. Although the supply side has started to react to the continuous Ni price decline (-45% YoY in 2023), the potential cost support level might be still distant, as low grade Indonesian miners (~48% of global Ni supply) are likely to be more resistant due to their higher margins
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⛏Wyloo has halted nickel mining in Western Australia due to low prices, Reuters reports, citing a company statement. On our numbers, the miner’s Kambalda operations account for ~1% of global class-1 Ni supply and 0.3% of total Ni output. To recap, First Quantum has also recently shut down its Ravensthorpe nickel mine for two years. Although the supply side has started to react to the continuous Ni price decline (-45% YoY in 2023), the potential cost support level might be still distant, as low grade Indonesian miners (~48% of global Ni supply) are likely to be more resistant due to their higher margins
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🥉Global copper production inched up 0.8% YoY in 11mo23 to 20.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports, while November output rose 1.1% YoY (vs. +0.8% YoY in October). Despite some significant production growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, the global dynamics have been limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. In addition, Cobre Panama, a major copper mine (~2% of global Cu supply) suspended operations in late November amid continuous social unrest, with the company anticipating the mine's closure by mid-2024. In our view, this might add some stress to the global copper supply in 2024
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global copper production inched up 0.8% YoY in 11mo23 to 20.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports, while November output rose 1.1% YoY (vs. +0.8% YoY in October). Despite some significant production growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, the global dynamics have been limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. In addition, Cobre Panama, a major copper mine (~2% of global Cu supply) suspended operations in late November amid continuous social unrest, with the company anticipating the mine's closure by mid-2024. In our view, this might add some stress to the global copper supply in 2024
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Freeport McMoran 4Q23 results — meet expectations
✏️Freeport's 4Q23 revenues broadly met consensus and our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also roughly as expected (+3% vs. the consensus, and -1% vs. us)
⛏Regarding the outlook for 2024, the miner anticipates copper sales to remain flat YoY, while gold sales are to grow >15% YoY. The company guides for 2024 net unit cash costs to stay unchanged vs. the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 Freeport said that the short-term market fundamentals improved in late-2023 as supply growth estimates declined, in addition to the general backdrop of low copper inventories and persistently strong demand for renewables globally
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 1Q24F EBITDA to stay roughly unchanged QoQ, as metal prices remain close to 4Q23 levels, along with the guided flat copper sales volumes
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
✏️Freeport's 4Q23 revenues broadly met consensus and our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also roughly as expected (+3% vs. the consensus, and -1% vs. us)
⛏Regarding the outlook for 2024, the miner anticipates copper sales to remain flat YoY, while gold sales are to grow >15% YoY. The company guides for 2024 net unit cash costs to stay unchanged vs. the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 Freeport said that the short-term market fundamentals improved in late-2023 as supply growth estimates declined, in addition to the general backdrop of low copper inventories and persistently strong demand for renewables globally
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 1Q24F EBITDA to stay roughly unchanged QoQ, as metal prices remain close to 4Q23 levels, along with the guided flat copper sales volumes
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during mid-January was reported at 2.09mnt, up 3.7% from the previous ten days, and +8.1% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.7% over the period (-4.5% YoY). In our view, Beijing's efforts to support the local economy via the real estate sector could bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, steel products prices
We also note that CISA expects local steel production to decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), which might also add support to global prices, if it materialises, given that China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during mid-January was reported at 2.09mnt, up 3.7% from the previous ten days, and +8.1% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.7% over the period (-4.5% YoY). In our view, Beijing's efforts to support the local economy via the real estate sector could bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, steel products prices
We also note that CISA expects local steel production to decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), which might also add support to global prices, if it materialises, given that China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel