文昌小財經情報
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Citron Research (Twitter)

We were short $DUOL before last earnings and got it wrong. But the thesis hasn’t weakened—it’s only gotten stronger. Yesterday, Google changed the entire language learning market at I/O 2025. Google translate can now replicate your sound tone and expression of our voice. Saying Google’s new AI translation tool won’t impact Duolingo is like saying calculators didn’t reduce the need to learn arithmetic. Sure, nothing replaces learning a language — but let’s not pretend this doesn’t change the business.
https://www.theverge.com/news/670322/google-meet-gemini-translation-ai-english-spanish
Citron Research (Twitter)

Duolingo has added to its own problem on its AI pivot.. The result? A full blown uninstall movement. Users revolted over stripped-down lessons, robotic UX, and lost features. Duolingo deleted all its TikTok and Instagram content—erasing its brand in panic. Its comeback? That’s not leadership. That’s brand collapse. This was once the most beloved consumer app in edtech. This is the marketing message of a $20 bil company.
Citron Research (Twitter)

Yet Duolingo trades at 171x forward earnings
SOO STUUPID forward earnings—as if it has a moat, pricing power, and no threats. But its product is now easily copied, squeezed by open-source tools below and Google’s AI dominance above. The growth story is broken, the brand is fading, and the value prop has been redefined by a platform with global reach. $DUOL doesn’t need a small correction—it needs a full re-rating. The calculator came for long division. Gemini just came for the owl.