‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL Citron will stay on top of the name and put out more info as needed but as the company trades at a higher multiple than $DDOG or $SNOW its future is obvious. Good product (for now) shit stock

‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL. There is such a long way down in this ed tech name. Citron expects to be the first of many direct AI competitors from real competition https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/29/google-launches-ai-tools-for-practicing-languages-through-personalized-lessons/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL. . Max is a Mirage:
Duolingo’s GPT-tier “Max” is used by just 0.4% of users.
Even their own bull case only projects 2.5% penetration by 2029.
That’s not monetization — that’s wishful thinking.
And the moat? Already gone.
Ask ChatGPT:
“Can you replicate a lesson like Duolingo Max?”
The answer:
“Absolutely — here’s a Duolingo Max-style lesson replicated with ChatGPT, including a short interactive lesson, AI explanations (‘Explain My Answer’), and a bit of roleplay.”
So much for differentiation.

Citron Research (Twitter)

Citron has remained disciplined in calling out shorts—reserving our voice for only the most asymmetric setups. Over the past three years, our largest short calls have been dead on. This isn’t about fraud or a failing company. It’s about a beloved consumer brand whose stock price is built on shaky assumptions and narrative sleight of hand. As technology renders the core product replaceable—for free—analyst fantasies won’t be enough to hold up a nosebleed. The business may survive. The stock price won’t

‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL- Credit where Credit is Do!
Duolingo the company has done a fantastic job building an interactive app that grew far beyond what any skeptic expected. Their app and use of TikTok have driven user growth we’ve never seen before in ed-tech. Kudos.
That’s the good news.
The bad news — for shareholders — is everything else.

Citron Research (Twitter)

This is a slow moving Chegg
The stock is trading at unsustainable levels.

Such rich multiples imply investors are pricing in aggressive growth and flawless execution.
Duolingo (NASDAQ: DUOL) trades at ~15x forward sales and over 40x FY2026 EBITDA — valuations you'd expect from enterprise SaaS names like Datadog (DDOG) or Snowflake (SNOW).

But this is still a gimmicky ed-tech app that’s going to lose 30%+ of its growth to free AI competition.
Feather dreams of 40% EBITDA margins by 2029.
That would require near-perfect execution, wild operating leverage, and a consumer base that doesn’t churn the second a free, better alternative drops.
Just ask Chegg how that played out.

‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL fantasy crumbles.
“Duolingo Max” runs on GPT-4 — but those token costs already crushed margins by 300bps before real competition.
Now $GOOGL enters. $DUOL will be forced to buy even more tokens — at worse terms.
COGS up. Margins down.
Wall Street’s “scalable” model was a fairy tale. Short the owl.

‌Citron Research (Twitter)

$DUOL. . Just Ask ChatGPT:
Want to learn English or Spanish? Just ask ChatGPT:
“Can you replicate a Duolingo class?”
What you’ll get is faster, personalized, and free.
No ads, no hearts, no mascot guilt trips.
ChatGPT remembers your mistakes, adapts to your style, and improves constantly — for $0.
The core value prop that justified DUOL’s valuation? Already obsolete. .

Citron Research (Twitter)

RT @kingtutcap: Initiated a starter position in $VPG this morning.

After further diligence, the ties of them being a key supplier for $TSLA's humanoid robots is becoming clearer by the day; and maybe Figure AI as well.

The CEO was at the Sidoti Investment conference two weeks ago and stated the following:

"We've been working with leading form-factor developer now for the last year and a half. That company has publicly stated that they want to see thousands of these robots in their factory by end of 2025. We are in the final stages of discussing the final arrangement, and we've already generated upwards $1.5M just from prototypes. We think that's an indicator of the seriousness of the investment put into these robots. We are also actively engaged with other humanoid robot developers. We think this could be an opportunity that generates millions of dollars for VPG. This could be a gamechanger".

In $TSLA's Q1 earnings call, Elon Musk stated:

“The normal...

View original post

Elon Musk (Twitter)

RT @neuralink: 🪡 We often get questions about the safety of our implant’s electrode threads.

In this video, Dave, a member of our technical staff, shares data highlighting the leap forward in safety that our technology provides.

Elon Musk (Twitter)

RT @cb_doge: Cybercab is truly a piece of art.

‌Elon Musk (Twitter)

Fate loves irony

‌Elon Musk (Twitter)

Working with @SecDuffy, the @DOGE is glad to stop funding studies to determine if roads are racist.

This was an actual thing that was happening! 🤦‍♂️