Little Flaws
Sep 2, 2021 by Morgan Housel
Not realizing that inarticulate, uneducated, obnoxious, unqualified, and crazy people sometimes have the right answers.
Comparing reality with an idealized alternative.
Overestimating the extent to which your insights are different from your peers.
Assuming other people think about you as much as you do.
Emphasizing technical expertise while discounting softer topics like communication and empathy.
Assuming experience in one era prepares you for the next.
An insatiable appetite for the hand that feeds you, or discounting how much you rely on other people.
Overlooking that some of your opinions would change if your incentives were different.
Being persuaded by the advice of those who need or want something you don’t.
Having a hard time distinguishing between what happened and what you think should have happened.
An illusion that other people’s bad circumstances couldn’t also happen to you.
Not realizing that surly people are probably going through something terrible in their life.
The inability to communicate your ideas because you wrongly assume others have the necessary background to understand what you’re talking about.
Assuming history is a guide to the future, when in reality, “things that have never happened before happen all the time,” as Scott Sagan says.
Conflating “I’m good at this” with “Others are bad at this” in a way that makes you overestimate how valuable your skills are.
Mistaking a temporary trend for a competitive advantage, when serendipity masquerades as skill.
Extreme adherence to a specific worldview in a world that changes all the time.
Underestimating the odds of disaster because it’s comforting to assume things will keep functioning the way they’ve always functioned.
Being so emotionally invested in what you do that you can’t delegate tasks.
Exaggerating the importance and influence of your social group.
Incorrectly assuming the views of one person reflect those of a broader group that person associates with.
No preemptive check on your risk tolerance and ambition, causing you to learn the limits only when you’ve gone too far when it may be too late to recover.
An attraction to odds that may be in your favor but whose downside could cause ruin.
Ignoring the role of luck because it’s too painful to consider, causing an overestimation of how repeatable your skills are.
Remembering happy events more vividly than bad ones in a way that leaves you with an unrealistic view of how good the past used to be.
So obsessed with data that you discount how influential squishy things like narratives and feelings can be.
Assuming competency in one field leads to skill in other fields.
Expectations rise equal or faster than results, leading to constant disappointment no matter how much you’ve accomplished.
Avoiding negative information that might challenge views that you desperately want or need to be right.
Ignoring the power of tail events because you’d be bored if you admitted that 99% of news events won’t matter at all in the long run.
Assuming that what you know and have measured is more important than what you don’t know and haven’t measured.
Exploiting all opportunities to the fullest extent possible with no room for error in a way that leaves you vulnerable during the slightest change in future circumstances.
Excessively rosy views about the decisions you’ve made to maintain self-esteem in a world where everyone makes bad decisions all the time.
Having zero tolerance for hassle, inefficiency, and nonsense in a way that leaves you frustrated and in search of a perfect world that will never exist.
Excessive ego in a world where humility is the impressive trait that catches people’s attention.
Being blind to the stress, struggle, doubt, and failure your role models deal with.
Taking your cues and insights from people playing a different game than you are.
Thinking that saying “I don’t know” when you don’t know is a character flaw.
Assuming statistics alone can persuade other people when what really changes minds are stories.
I
Sep 2, 2021 by Morgan Housel
Not realizing that inarticulate, uneducated, obnoxious, unqualified, and crazy people sometimes have the right answers.
Comparing reality with an idealized alternative.
Overestimating the extent to which your insights are different from your peers.
Assuming other people think about you as much as you do.
Emphasizing technical expertise while discounting softer topics like communication and empathy.
Assuming experience in one era prepares you for the next.
An insatiable appetite for the hand that feeds you, or discounting how much you rely on other people.
Overlooking that some of your opinions would change if your incentives were different.
Being persuaded by the advice of those who need or want something you don’t.
Having a hard time distinguishing between what happened and what you think should have happened.
An illusion that other people’s bad circumstances couldn’t also happen to you.
Not realizing that surly people are probably going through something terrible in their life.
The inability to communicate your ideas because you wrongly assume others have the necessary background to understand what you’re talking about.
Assuming history is a guide to the future, when in reality, “things that have never happened before happen all the time,” as Scott Sagan says.
Conflating “I’m good at this” with “Others are bad at this” in a way that makes you overestimate how valuable your skills are.
Mistaking a temporary trend for a competitive advantage, when serendipity masquerades as skill.
Extreme adherence to a specific worldview in a world that changes all the time.
Underestimating the odds of disaster because it’s comforting to assume things will keep functioning the way they’ve always functioned.
Being so emotionally invested in what you do that you can’t delegate tasks.
Exaggerating the importance and influence of your social group.
Incorrectly assuming the views of one person reflect those of a broader group that person associates with.
No preemptive check on your risk tolerance and ambition, causing you to learn the limits only when you’ve gone too far when it may be too late to recover.
An attraction to odds that may be in your favor but whose downside could cause ruin.
Ignoring the role of luck because it’s too painful to consider, causing an overestimation of how repeatable your skills are.
Remembering happy events more vividly than bad ones in a way that leaves you with an unrealistic view of how good the past used to be.
So obsessed with data that you discount how influential squishy things like narratives and feelings can be.
Assuming competency in one field leads to skill in other fields.
Expectations rise equal or faster than results, leading to constant disappointment no matter how much you’ve accomplished.
Avoiding negative information that might challenge views that you desperately want or need to be right.
Ignoring the power of tail events because you’d be bored if you admitted that 99% of news events won’t matter at all in the long run.
Assuming that what you know and have measured is more important than what you don’t know and haven’t measured.
Exploiting all opportunities to the fullest extent possible with no room for error in a way that leaves you vulnerable during the slightest change in future circumstances.
Excessively rosy views about the decisions you’ve made to maintain self-esteem in a world where everyone makes bad decisions all the time.
Having zero tolerance for hassle, inefficiency, and nonsense in a way that leaves you frustrated and in search of a perfect world that will never exist.
Excessive ego in a world where humility is the impressive trait that catches people’s attention.
Being blind to the stress, struggle, doubt, and failure your role models deal with.
Taking your cues and insights from people playing a different game than you are.
Thinking that saying “I don’t know” when you don’t know is a character flaw.
Assuming statistics alone can persuade other people when what really changes minds are stories.
I
Indian insurance sector: Shakeout or promoter exits to happen?
Mixed views were expressed by insurance industry officials to whether a shakeout or promoter exits in the Indian insurance sector are on the cards, as HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd on Friday announced the acquisition of Exide Life Insurance Company Ltd for Rs 6,687 crore.
"As regards the life insurance sector, the storyboard is clear. The insurers have limited products (endowment, money back), lower internal rate of return (IRR) in endowment policies and disinterest on the part of life insurers to sell term insurance policies after Covid-19 death claims," a senior life insurance industry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IANS.
"If a life insurer has commercial banks as its distributors, then it is fine. If not, then the going will be tough," he summed up.
The bancassurance channel business is a major sales channel for the life insurers.
In the case of Exide Life, it does not have a major nationalised/private bank as its corporate agent, but several cooperative banks in this role.
During the first quarter of the current fiscal, Exide Life got bulk of its business from individual agents, brokers, and direct sales.
Interestingly there are banks that have teamed up together to float their own insurance companies - in both life and non-life sectors.
According to the official, even after the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit was hiked to 74 per cent, no new foreign player has started business.
Further, many of the foreign partners in existing life insurance companies have not hiked their stake to 74 per cent, the official added.
Not agreeing that a shakeout is in the insurance sector on the anvil, an industry analyst, not wanting to be named, told IANS that there may be promoters who may want to exit their insurance ventures and focus on their core business.
The analyst said for Exide Industries, its main focus is batteries and would like to concentrate on that by committing additional funds in that business.
Announcing the sale of Exide Life to HDFC Life, Exide Industries Ltd Vice Chairman and Exide Life Insurance Company Ltd Chairman Rajan B. Raheja said: "The focus of Exide Industries has always been to enhance the value for its stakeholders."
According to Exide Industries, it has invested a total of Rs 1,679.59 crore in Exide Life, a wholly-owned subsidiary and in turn, gets a value of Rs 6,687 crore on the sale.
Exide Life is the second life insurance company to be sold after AMP Sanmar Life Insurance was sold to Reliance Life Insurance, now Reliance Nippon Life Insurance.
The general insurance sector saw stake sale/purchase last year. Paytm acquired Raheja QBE, HDFC Ergo acquired Apollo Munich, Sachin Bansal bought DHFL General Insurance, and Bharti Axa General was acquired by ICICI Lombard.
Industry officials had earlier told IANS that world over, post opening up of the insurance sector, there will be a large number of players.
About eight years after the sectoral liberalisation, mergers and acquisition would happen but in India, it has not happened in large numbers.
Perhaps the trend is slowly in the making and mergers and acquisitions, promoter's selling out may start happening is one view.
All Above Are Views forwarded
Mixed views were expressed by insurance industry officials to whether a shakeout or promoter exits in the Indian insurance sector are on the cards, as HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd on Friday announced the acquisition of Exide Life Insurance Company Ltd for Rs 6,687 crore.
"As regards the life insurance sector, the storyboard is clear. The insurers have limited products (endowment, money back), lower internal rate of return (IRR) in endowment policies and disinterest on the part of life insurers to sell term insurance policies after Covid-19 death claims," a senior life insurance industry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IANS.
"If a life insurer has commercial banks as its distributors, then it is fine. If not, then the going will be tough," he summed up.
The bancassurance channel business is a major sales channel for the life insurers.
In the case of Exide Life, it does not have a major nationalised/private bank as its corporate agent, but several cooperative banks in this role.
During the first quarter of the current fiscal, Exide Life got bulk of its business from individual agents, brokers, and direct sales.
Interestingly there are banks that have teamed up together to float their own insurance companies - in both life and non-life sectors.
According to the official, even after the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit was hiked to 74 per cent, no new foreign player has started business.
Further, many of the foreign partners in existing life insurance companies have not hiked their stake to 74 per cent, the official added.
Not agreeing that a shakeout is in the insurance sector on the anvil, an industry analyst, not wanting to be named, told IANS that there may be promoters who may want to exit their insurance ventures and focus on their core business.
The analyst said for Exide Industries, its main focus is batteries and would like to concentrate on that by committing additional funds in that business.
Announcing the sale of Exide Life to HDFC Life, Exide Industries Ltd Vice Chairman and Exide Life Insurance Company Ltd Chairman Rajan B. Raheja said: "The focus of Exide Industries has always been to enhance the value for its stakeholders."
According to Exide Industries, it has invested a total of Rs 1,679.59 crore in Exide Life, a wholly-owned subsidiary and in turn, gets a value of Rs 6,687 crore on the sale.
Exide Life is the second life insurance company to be sold after AMP Sanmar Life Insurance was sold to Reliance Life Insurance, now Reliance Nippon Life Insurance.
The general insurance sector saw stake sale/purchase last year. Paytm acquired Raheja QBE, HDFC Ergo acquired Apollo Munich, Sachin Bansal bought DHFL General Insurance, and Bharti Axa General was acquired by ICICI Lombard.
Industry officials had earlier told IANS that world over, post opening up of the insurance sector, there will be a large number of players.
About eight years after the sectoral liberalisation, mergers and acquisition would happen but in India, it has not happened in large numbers.
Perhaps the trend is slowly in the making and mergers and acquisitions, promoter's selling out may start happening is one view.
All Above Are Views forwarded
*Key conference call highlights of IPCA Laboratories Ltd. Management*
*CMP Rs2535, MCap Rs321bn*
*Growth guidance:* Overall 8-10% growth for FY22E.
Domestic – 16% to 18% growth in top Line,
Export – business should grow between 12-14% in FY22E
Institutionl – Good growth expected – Rs 400 crs in FY22E
Gerneric & EU to grow at 5-6% growth, over stocking in EU generic business,
API – 8-9% growth, Domestic API – 14-15% growth expected for FY22
EBITDA margin should be in the range of 25%-26% in FY22E and expects improvement with further normalization for FY23E.
*Branded business* – product offering and MR count is likely to increase with more normalization and 15% growth YoY.
*API* to grow in the range of 9-10% for next 4-5 years. As intermediate prices move up the prices have also increased for the final products.
*Institutional business* is limited to only to Anti-malaria therapy and around Rs 500-550crs revenue is expected per year. Institutional – 60% ALDT and 40% conventional products, injectable is also contributing significantly (started since last year)
*Plant audit* – local audit won’t be conduct by FDA and no any intimation has received about the same, Company has completed all the remediation related work.
*DEWAS plant* expected to be commercially operational from Q1FY23E.
US is a big and important market for company and due to pandemic situation the plants remained uninspected hence no exposure to the US market, but management is very confident that once inspection thing get resolved which led to its entry in the US market, will disrupt the market favorably with backward integration and is hopeful to achieve good amount of market share gain in the market.
*Capex* – INR 400 cr each year for next 3 years
Company has created front end office at US for marketing purpose but due to its pending inspection is not in market so no any gain from the plant/outlet.
*Long term Outlook:*
Company is seriously looking to produce more intermediates, to grow internationally where opening up of US market will be an addition to company’s overall strategy. Cash flow is primarily to be used for acquisition in the US with better offerings and reasonable pricing in India.
Company is not ignoring any market as its aim is to become vertically integrated and its developing its value chain with few API (India & ROW), also focusing on low COGS as well as gaining market share in generic market.
Pain management, Hypertension, Cardiac, Derma, Ophthalmic and Specialty product segments likely to be more focused going forward with timely addition in MR strength.
*CMP Rs2535, MCap Rs321bn*
*Growth guidance:* Overall 8-10% growth for FY22E.
Domestic – 16% to 18% growth in top Line,
Export – business should grow between 12-14% in FY22E
Institutionl – Good growth expected – Rs 400 crs in FY22E
Gerneric & EU to grow at 5-6% growth, over stocking in EU generic business,
API – 8-9% growth, Domestic API – 14-15% growth expected for FY22
EBITDA margin should be in the range of 25%-26% in FY22E and expects improvement with further normalization for FY23E.
*Branded business* – product offering and MR count is likely to increase with more normalization and 15% growth YoY.
*API* to grow in the range of 9-10% for next 4-5 years. As intermediate prices move up the prices have also increased for the final products.
*Institutional business* is limited to only to Anti-malaria therapy and around Rs 500-550crs revenue is expected per year. Institutional – 60% ALDT and 40% conventional products, injectable is also contributing significantly (started since last year)
*Plant audit* – local audit won’t be conduct by FDA and no any intimation has received about the same, Company has completed all the remediation related work.
*DEWAS plant* expected to be commercially operational from Q1FY23E.
US is a big and important market for company and due to pandemic situation the plants remained uninspected hence no exposure to the US market, but management is very confident that once inspection thing get resolved which led to its entry in the US market, will disrupt the market favorably with backward integration and is hopeful to achieve good amount of market share gain in the market.
*Capex* – INR 400 cr each year for next 3 years
Company has created front end office at US for marketing purpose but due to its pending inspection is not in market so no any gain from the plant/outlet.
*Long term Outlook:*
Company is seriously looking to produce more intermediates, to grow internationally where opening up of US market will be an addition to company’s overall strategy. Cash flow is primarily to be used for acquisition in the US with better offerings and reasonable pricing in India.
Company is not ignoring any market as its aim is to become vertically integrated and its developing its value chain with few API (India & ROW), also focusing on low COGS as well as gaining market share in generic market.
Pain management, Hypertension, Cardiac, Derma, Ophthalmic and Specialty product segments likely to be more focused going forward with timely addition in MR strength.
Indian Stock Market in 2021!
Nifty has outperformed the major stock market indices of world.
Nifty and Sensex still hitting record highs !!!
The reason:
1. Increase in vaccination, a crore people getting vaccinated on daily basis.
2. GST collection for the August month above Rs. 1 Lakh Crore.
3. A good economic recovery in India expected.
4. Strong global cues, especially US stock market index at record levels ie DOW JONES, S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
Charts: moneycontrol.com
Nifty has outperformed the major stock market indices of world.
Nifty and Sensex still hitting record highs !!!
The reason:
1. Increase in vaccination, a crore people getting vaccinated on daily basis.
2. GST collection for the August month above Rs. 1 Lakh Crore.
3. A good economic recovery in India expected.
4. Strong global cues, especially US stock market index at record levels ie DOW JONES, S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
Charts: moneycontrol.com
Much awaited PLI scheme for #auto sector is set to be announced next week, CNBC-TV18 learns #exclusively.
The scheme is aimed at enhancing competitiveness of India's vehicle & component manufacturers.
This was among the 10 sectors for which #PLI scheme was announced in Nov 2020
The scheme is aimed at enhancing competitiveness of India's vehicle & component manufacturers.
This was among the 10 sectors for which #PLI scheme was announced in Nov 2020