CLSA ON GODREJ CONSUMER ; UNDERPERFORM | TP ₹743 | CMP ₹905
• India growth may remain weak due to GT inventory correction, high investments and tough input-cost environment.
• Targets GT inventory reduction to 10 days from ~20 days currently.
• Plans ₹200 Cr annual investment across R&D, GTM and marketing.
• Long-term guidance beyond FY27 remains double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue/profit growth.
• Investors likely to focus on quarterly execution given past underperformance versus Dec-2021 guidance.
• Cuts FY27–29 PAT estimates by 4–6%.
• India growth may remain weak due to GT inventory correction, high investments and tough input-cost environment.
• Targets GT inventory reduction to 10 days from ~20 days currently.
• Plans ₹200 Cr annual investment across R&D, GTM and marketing.
• Long-term guidance beyond FY27 remains double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue/profit growth.
• Investors likely to focus on quarterly execution given past underperformance versus Dec-2021 guidance.
• Cuts FY27–29 PAT estimates by 4–6%.
CITI ON RBL BANK ; BUY | TP ₹440 | CMP ₹389.40
• Mobilised ₹32,472 Cr of gross FCNR(B) deposits under RBI swap facility.
• FCNR(B) deposits equal ~26% of total deposits and ~37% of term deposits; ~2.7% FCNR(B) market share.
• Expects FY27 earnings benefit of ~7% uplift in NII and ~10% in PPOP.
• Incremental FCNR flows carry structurally lower margins; sees 40–45 bps optical NIM pressure over next 2 quarters.
• NIM impact expected to be partial in Q2 and fully reflected in Q3.
• ₹26,000 Cr equity infusion should partly cushion NIM pressure.
• NIM trajectory depends on timing of deployment and utilisation of currently unleveraged deposits.
• Mobilised ₹32,472 Cr of gross FCNR(B) deposits under RBI swap facility.
• FCNR(B) deposits equal ~26% of total deposits and ~37% of term deposits; ~2.7% FCNR(B) market share.
• Expects FY27 earnings benefit of ~7% uplift in NII and ~10% in PPOP.
• Incremental FCNR flows carry structurally lower margins; sees 40–45 bps optical NIM pressure over next 2 quarters.
• NIM impact expected to be partial in Q2 and fully reflected in Q3.
• ₹26,000 Cr equity infusion should partly cushion NIM pressure.
• NIM trajectory depends on timing of deployment and utilisation of currently unleveraged deposits.
NOMURA ON GODREJ CONSUMER ; BUY | TP ₹1,100 | CMP ₹905
• New CEO prioritising portfolio transformation and entry into new/future categories.
• Focus on capturing opportunities beyond home care.
• Godrej Lab (G-Lab) created to identify consumer trends and accelerate premium product launches.
• Aims to transform GCPL into a new-age FMCG company.
• AI to be embedded across demand forecasting, media planning and pricing.
• Core categories such as household insecticides and soaps will continue to receive equal focus.
• Focus on reigniting innovation and strengthening execution.
• New CEO prioritising portfolio transformation and entry into new/future categories.
• Focus on capturing opportunities beyond home care.
• Godrej Lab (G-Lab) created to identify consumer trends and accelerate premium product launches.
• Aims to transform GCPL into a new-age FMCG company.
• AI to be embedded across demand forecasting, media planning and pricing.
• Core categories such as household insecticides and soaps will continue to receive equal focus.
• Focus on reigniting innovation and strengthening execution.
HSBC ON HEXAWARE ; HOLD | TP ₹575 | CMP ₹543.60
• CEO Keech to step down and remain advisor; former EXL executive Vivek Jetley appointed CEO.
• New CEO’s key mandate is to reaccelerate growth with sharper execution.
• Strategy likely to remain unchanged, but execution focus expected to improve.
• Maintains HOLD amid near-term business weakness.
• CEO Keech to step down and remain advisor; former EXL executive Vivek Jetley appointed CEO.
• New CEO’s key mandate is to reaccelerate growth with sharper execution.
• Strategy likely to remain unchanged, but execution focus expected to improve.
• Maintains HOLD amid near-term business weakness.
NOMURA ON WAKEFIT ; INITIATES BUY | TP ₹200 | CMP ₹152.47
• Leading play on large home-furnishing opportunity, leveraging mattress leadership to expand into furniture.
• Full-stack operating model driving strong cost efficiencies.
• Expanding online-to-offline D2C leadership in India’s home-furnishing market.
• Expects 19% revenue CAGR and 31% pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR over FY26–29.
• Pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin expected to expand from 7.4% in FY26 to 10.3% by FY29.
• Stock trades at ~40x/29.5x FY28/FY29E P/E; risk-reward seen favourable.
• Leading play on large home-furnishing opportunity, leveraging mattress leadership to expand into furniture.
• Full-stack operating model driving strong cost efficiencies.
• Expanding online-to-offline D2C leadership in India’s home-furnishing market.
• Expects 19% revenue CAGR and 31% pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR over FY26–29.
• Pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin expected to expand from 7.4% in FY26 to 10.3% by FY29.
• Stock trades at ~40x/29.5x FY28/FY29E P/E; risk-reward seen favourable.
🔥 TOP BROKERAGE ACTIONS — SEPTEMBER 03
RR KABEL — JM Financial
🔻 ADD → REDUCE | 🎯 ₹2,750 vs ₹2,850
POLYCAB INDIA — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹9,550 vs ₹10,700
KEI INDUSTRIES — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹5,750 vs ₹6,400
COAL INDIA — Nuvama
🔺 SELL → HOLD | 🎯 ₹454 vs ₹396
PARK MEDI WORLD — Ventura Securities
🔺 BUY | 🎯 ₹406 vs ₹284
SHILPA MEDICARE — Nuvama
🆕 INITIATE BUY | 🎯 ₹1,200
PVR INOX — JM Financial
🔺 ADD | 🎯 ₹1,270 vs ₹1,130
PVR INOX — CLSA
🟢 OUTPERFORM | 🎯 ₹2,135
Key theme: JM Financial turned cautious on the wires & cables space, while Park Medi World and Shilpa Medicare were among the notable positive calls.
RR KABEL — JM Financial
🔻 ADD → REDUCE | 🎯 ₹2,750 vs ₹2,850
POLYCAB INDIA — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹9,550 vs ₹10,700
KEI INDUSTRIES — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹5,750 vs ₹6,400
COAL INDIA — Nuvama
🔺 SELL → HOLD | 🎯 ₹454 vs ₹396
PARK MEDI WORLD — Ventura Securities
🔺 BUY | 🎯 ₹406 vs ₹284
SHILPA MEDICARE — Nuvama
🆕 INITIATE BUY | 🎯 ₹1,200
PVR INOX — JM Financial
🔺 ADD | 🎯 ₹1,270 vs ₹1,130
PVR INOX — CLSA
🟢 OUTPERFORM | 🎯 ₹2,135
Key theme: JM Financial turned cautious on the wires & cables space, while Park Medi World and Shilpa Medicare were among the notable positive calls.
CLSA on GCPL
U-P, TP cut to Rs 743
GCPL reiterated its guidance but cautioned that India business growth might be lower due to
(1) the inventory correction in GT (10 days from 20 currently);
(2) scale-up of investments in R&D, GTM and marketing (Rs2bn annually); and
(3) a challenging input cost environment. It laid out long-term guidance beyond FY27 of double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue and profit growth.
However, believe investors will track quarterly performance given the degree of underperformance vs previous long-term guidance from Dec 2021.
Cut FY27-29CL PAT 4-6%
U-P, TP cut to Rs 743
GCPL reiterated its guidance but cautioned that India business growth might be lower due to
(1) the inventory correction in GT (10 days from 20 currently);
(2) scale-up of investments in R&D, GTM and marketing (Rs2bn annually); and
(3) a challenging input cost environment. It laid out long-term guidance beyond FY27 of double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue and profit growth.
However, believe investors will track quarterly performance given the degree of underperformance vs previous long-term guidance from Dec 2021.
Cut FY27-29CL PAT 4-6%
MS on GCPL
EW. TP Rs 1204
Analyst meet takeaways
New CEO discussed co's strategy going ahead and indicated that business is operating as usual.
Medium-term ambitions (DD vol growth, teens revenue and profit growth), F27 targets (HSD India vol growth, DD cons. revenue and EBITDA growth) was reiterated.
Strategy is focussed on reviving the core and driving category expansion.
GCPL will invest Rs2bn annually (to be scaled gradually) in marketing, distribution.
GCPL will correct India GT inventory of Rs1.5bn (1.7% of revenues) aided by better tools leading to some near-term pressure, to be offset at overall level.
EW. TP Rs 1204
Analyst meet takeaways
New CEO discussed co's strategy going ahead and indicated that business is operating as usual.
Medium-term ambitions (DD vol growth, teens revenue and profit growth), F27 targets (HSD India vol growth, DD cons. revenue and EBITDA growth) was reiterated.
Strategy is focussed on reviving the core and driving category expansion.
GCPL will invest Rs2bn annually (to be scaled gradually) in marketing, distribution.
GCPL will correct India GT inventory of Rs1.5bn (1.7% of revenues) aided by better tools leading to some near-term pressure, to be offset at overall level.
Nomura on GCPL
Buy, TP Rs 1100
New CEO highlighted his priorities:
(1) Driving portfolio transformation by: a) entering into more categories of future, b) capturing whitespaces beyond Home Care;
(2) Created Godrej Lab (G-Lab) for new opportunities, spotting within consumer trends and creating / launching top-end products with less time
and effort;
(3) Transform GCPL as a new-age FMCG firm;
(4) Embedding AI in demand forecasting, media planning and pricing models.
He also plans on placing equal focus on core categories like Household Insecticides (HI) and Soaps (that earlier lagged expectations) by bringing back the innovation spark and strengthening execution both on operational level and converting strategy into actions
Buy, TP Rs 1100
New CEO highlighted his priorities:
(1) Driving portfolio transformation by: a) entering into more categories of future, b) capturing whitespaces beyond Home Care;
(2) Created Godrej Lab (G-Lab) for new opportunities, spotting within consumer trends and creating / launching top-end products with less time
and effort;
(3) Transform GCPL as a new-age FMCG firm;
(4) Embedding AI in demand forecasting, media planning and pricing models.
He also plans on placing equal focus on core categories like Household Insecticides (HI) and Soaps (that earlier lagged expectations) by bringing back the innovation spark and strengthening execution both on operational level and converting strategy into actions
Nomura on eClerx
Neutral, TP Rs 1830
Analyst day takeaways
Aiming to be in top-quartile growth quadrant.
Aims to scale eClerx’s revenue run-rate from USD500mn (1QFY27) to USD1bn+, but did not specify any timeline
AI as a fundamental competitive moat and TAM expander
Disciplined M&A to build capabilities and not just build revenues
Stock currently trades at 19.8x FY28F EPS of INR101.
Neutral, TP Rs 1830
Analyst day takeaways
Aiming to be in top-quartile growth quadrant.
Aims to scale eClerx’s revenue run-rate from USD500mn (1QFY27) to USD1bn+, but did not specify any timeline
AI as a fundamental competitive moat and TAM expander
Disciplined M&A to build capabilities and not just build revenues
Stock currently trades at 19.8x FY28F EPS of INR101.
AUTO STOCKS
Worker shortages hit 61% of auto suppliers even as EV shift promises 7.2 million jobs ; BL Reports
Worker shortages hit 61% of auto suppliers even as EV shift promises 7.2 million jobs ; BL Reports
MARKET CUES
GIFT Nifty Higher, Indicates A Start In The Green For The Indian Market
US Futures Flat After Major Averages Snap Three-day Losing Streak
US Market Ends In The Green, Dow Rises Nearly 300 pts As Treasury Yields Cool
US 10-year Treasury Yield Hits 4.818% Intra-day, Highest Level Since Nov 2023
Donald Trump Floats Renaming Strait Of Hormuz The 'Trump Strait'
. US Energy Secy To CNBC: Monday Was Our Record Ever Since Conflict Began, >17 m Bbl Of Oil Flowed Via Strait Of Hormuz
Broadcom Pares Losses As Revenue Projected To Double In Both 2027 & 2028
GIFT Nifty Higher, Indicates A Start In The Green For The Indian Market
US Futures Flat After Major Averages Snap Three-day Losing Streak
US Market Ends In The Green, Dow Rises Nearly 300 pts As Treasury Yields Cool
US 10-year Treasury Yield Hits 4.818% Intra-day, Highest Level Since Nov 2023
Donald Trump Floats Renaming Strait Of Hormuz The 'Trump Strait'
. US Energy Secy To CNBC: Monday Was Our Record Ever Since Conflict Began, >17 m Bbl Of Oil Flowed Via Strait Of Hormuz
Broadcom Pares Losses As Revenue Projected To Double In Both 2027 & 2028
JAPAN & CHINA ECONOMIC DATA
JAPAN
August S&P Global Composite PMI rises to 53.5 vs 52.7 MoM
August S&P Global Services PMI Final at 52.5 vs 51.2 MoM
CHINA
August Rating Dog Services PMI rises to 51.4 vs 50.4 MoM
August RatingDog Composite PMI rises to 52.1 vs 50.8 MOM
JAPAN
August S&P Global Composite PMI rises to 53.5 vs 52.7 MoM
August S&P Global Services PMI Final at 52.5 vs 51.2 MoM
CHINA
August Rating Dog Services PMI rises to 51.4 vs 50.4 MoM
August RatingDog Composite PMI rises to 52.1 vs 50.8 MOM
POSITIVE FOR CAPITAL GOODS/POWER ANCILLARY STOCKS
SIEMENS ENERGY INDIA
Order ramp up in transmission sector
Export demand for transformers, switchgears
Capacity expansion plans
SIEMENS ENERGY INDIA
Order ramp up in transmission sector
Export demand for transformers, switchgears
Capacity expansion plans
JPM on RIL
OW. TP Rs 1625
Reliance stock has not responded to continued strength in refining/petchem margins (YTD RIL is down 16.7% vs. NIFTY down c.8%)
Are valuations low enough to make a compelling case?
Estimate current stock prices imply: a) 7.5x EBITDA for O2C, b) peer comp EV/EBITDA multiples for major subsidiaries, c) a c.25% Holding Company discount with d) no value ascribed to the proposed renewables venture, RIL’s real estate holdings or the rapidly growing FMCG revenues.
Mathematically, there be a material downside to valuations if either:
a) persistent growth weakness drives Retail multiples lower, or
b) the Holdco discount increases further.
Upside scenarios include: a) strong O2C EBITDA surprise, b) acceleration of retail growth (higher multiples) and c) crystallization of valuation for the renewables energy segment. Retail growth should look better in the Dec-q (on EBITDA margin base effects), O2C should do well (at least on paper) and RIL is guiding to completion of major cell / battery lines by March 27
OW. TP Rs 1625
Reliance stock has not responded to continued strength in refining/petchem margins (YTD RIL is down 16.7% vs. NIFTY down c.8%)
Are valuations low enough to make a compelling case?
Estimate current stock prices imply: a) 7.5x EBITDA for O2C, b) peer comp EV/EBITDA multiples for major subsidiaries, c) a c.25% Holding Company discount with d) no value ascribed to the proposed renewables venture, RIL’s real estate holdings or the rapidly growing FMCG revenues.
Mathematically, there be a material downside to valuations if either:
a) persistent growth weakness drives Retail multiples lower, or
b) the Holdco discount increases further.
Upside scenarios include: a) strong O2C EBITDA surprise, b) acceleration of retail growth (higher multiples) and c) crystallization of valuation for the renewables energy segment. Retail growth should look better in the Dec-q (on EBITDA margin base effects), O2C should do well (at least on paper) and RIL is guiding to completion of major cell / battery lines by March 27
HSBC on Adani Ports
Buy, TP Rs 2200
ADSEZ posted record monthly throughput of 50 MMT in August, accelerating to 19% y-o-y (vs 15% in Jul)
2QFY27-to-date, cargo growth stood at 17% y-o-y (vs 2QFY27 estimate of 16%) and YTD (Apr-Aug) growth was 16%
y-o-y vs our FY27 growth estimate of 14%
Mundra empty container yard strike risks congestion; Mundra containers drive 24% total throughput and 54% of containers
Buy, TP Rs 2200
ADSEZ posted record monthly throughput of 50 MMT in August, accelerating to 19% y-o-y (vs 15% in Jul)
2QFY27-to-date, cargo growth stood at 17% y-o-y (vs 2QFY27 estimate of 16%) and YTD (Apr-Aug) growth was 16%
y-o-y vs our FY27 growth estimate of 14%
Mundra empty container yard strike risks congestion; Mundra containers drive 24% total throughput and 54% of containers
DATA CENTRE STOCKS: WATER-STRESS CONCERNS RISE AS CAPACITY EXPANDS
• India’s data-centre capacity has risen sharply from ~375 MW in 2020 to ~1,575 MW.
• A 100 MW hyperscale data centre could consume ~2 million litres of water per day for cooling, depending on technology.
• Data-centre water consumption was around 150 billion litres in 2024 and is projected to more than double by 2030.
• Water-stress concerns have emerged around data-centre expansion in Thane and Visakhapatnam.
• Government says data centres do not automatically require environmental clearance, though certain large construction projects may require approvals.
• Rising water usage could increase regulatory scrutiny and spending on water-efficient cooling, recycling and reuse.
• India’s data-centre capacity has risen sharply from ~375 MW in 2020 to ~1,575 MW.
• A 100 MW hyperscale data centre could consume ~2 million litres of water per day for cooling, depending on technology.
• Data-centre water consumption was around 150 billion litres in 2024 and is projected to more than double by 2030.
• Water-stress concerns have emerged around data-centre expansion in Thane and Visakhapatnam.
• Government says data centres do not automatically require environmental clearance, though certain large construction projects may require approvals.
• Rising water usage could increase regulatory scrutiny and spending on water-efficient cooling, recycling and reuse.
Dow rises nearly 300 points to snap three-day slide as Treasury yields cool
🇺🇸 Dow Jones: 53,061.95, up 295 points (+0.56%)
📈 S&P 500: 7,666.60, up 35 points (+0.46%)
💻 Nasdaq: 26,217.83, up 118 points (+0.45%)
🏢 Russell 2000 / Small Cap 2000: 2,953.17, up 1.13% — strongest among major indices.
🇺🇸 Dow Jones: 53,061.95, up 295 points (+0.56%)
📈 S&P 500: 7,666.60, up 35 points (+0.46%)
💻 Nasdaq: 26,217.83, up 118 points (+0.45%)
🏢 Russell 2000 / Small Cap 2000: 2,953.17, up 1.13% — strongest among major indices.