JEFFERIES ON WELSPUN CORP ; ACCUMULATE | TP ₹3,250
• Riding the strong energy investment cycle; global leader in welded line pipes.
• Key beneficiary of strong US oil & gas capex, supported by local manufacturing.
• Sees a significant growth opportunity in Saudi Arabia.
• India offers potential tailwinds, though near-term demand remains uncertain.
• Strong medium-term growth and ROE outlook.
• Riding the strong energy investment cycle; global leader in welded line pipes.
• Key beneficiary of strong US oil & gas capex, supported by local manufacturing.
• Sees a significant growth opportunity in Saudi Arabia.
• India offers potential tailwinds, though near-term demand remains uncertain.
• Strong medium-term growth and ROE outlook.
NUVAMA ON TATA POWER ; ACCUMULATE | TP ₹421 FROM ₹400
• Current price factors in the worst-case scenario; sees 15%+ upside in bull case.
• CMP is below bear-case TP of ₹363, suggesting key overhangs are largely priced in.
• Sees meaningful upside from currently unpriced PSP and TBCB pipeline.
• Projects these projects to contribute to cash flows by FY29–30.
• Timely commissioning of 2.8 GW PSP could add ~₹600 Cr annual cash flow.
• Potential re-rating once market valuations roll forward to FY29.
• Current price factors in the worst-case scenario; sees 15%+ upside in bull case.
• CMP is below bear-case TP of ₹363, suggesting key overhangs are largely priced in.
• Sees meaningful upside from currently unpriced PSP and TBCB pipeline.
• Projects these projects to contribute to cash flows by FY29–30.
• Timely commissioning of 2.8 GW PSP could add ~₹600 Cr annual cash flow.
• Potential re-rating once market valuations roll forward to FY29.
JP MORGAN ON ADANI PORTS ; OVERWEIGHT | TP ₹2,000
• Strong volume growth continues.
• Sees recent stock correction as a buying opportunity.
• Associated British Ports stake-sale process advances; Adani Ports no longer in contention.
• Q1FY27 results remained strong despite impact from Middle East conflict.
• Adani Ports remains one of JP Morgan’s top picks in the sector.
• Strong volume growth continues.
• Sees recent stock correction as a buying opportunity.
• Associated British Ports stake-sale process advances; Adani Ports no longer in contention.
• Q1FY27 results remained strong despite impact from Middle East conflict.
• Adani Ports remains one of JP Morgan’s top picks in the sector.
JEFFERIES ON INDIA STRATEGY
• Several major economic & corporate performance indicators have strengthened recently.
• Nominal GDP growth expected to accelerate to 11.5–12% in FY27 from 9% last year.
• Improving macro backdrop could drive corporate EPS growth towards 14%+.
• Elevated valuations and continued large equity supply could cap broader market returns.
• Overweight on Lenders, Power, Metals, Property & Hospitals.
• Several major economic & corporate performance indicators have strengthened recently.
• Nominal GDP growth expected to accelerate to 11.5–12% in FY27 from 9% last year.
• Improving macro backdrop could drive corporate EPS growth towards 14%+.
• Elevated valuations and continued large equity supply could cap broader market returns.
• Overweight on Lenders, Power, Metals, Property & Hospitals.
JEFFERIES ON BANKS
• FCNR-B mobilisation crossed $60 bn in just 10 days, taking total flows to $136 bn, ~4x the 2013 scheme flows.
• Total mobilisation has surpassed Jefferies’ upper-end estimate of $100 bn.
• Strong flows enhance banking-system liquidity ahead of the festive season and may help keep rates lower.
• RBI may absorb some liquidity via repo operations; Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• Better liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
• FCNR-B could lower NIMs, but remains accretive to NII.
• FCNR-B mobilisation crossed $60 bn in just 10 days, taking total flows to $136 bn, ~4x the 2013 scheme flows.
• Total mobilisation has surpassed Jefferies’ upper-end estimate of $100 bn.
• Strong flows enhance banking-system liquidity ahead of the festive season and may help keep rates lower.
• RBI may absorb some liquidity via repo operations; Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• Better liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
• FCNR-B could lower NIMs, but remains accretive to NII.
JEFFERIES ON BANKS
• RBI may absorb some excess liquidity via repo operations, but Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• Better system liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
• FCNR-B deposits may lower NIMs, but are expected to be accretive to NII.
• RBI may absorb some excess liquidity via repo operations, but Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• Better system liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
• FCNR-B deposits may lower NIMs, but are expected to be accretive to NII.
GOLDMAN SACHS ON AXIS BANK ; BUY | TP ₹1,477
• Expects continued strong loan growth in FY27.
• Medium-term loan growth guided at ~300 bps above system growth.
• Corporate loan growth continues to meet return thresholds.
• Retail disbursement growth improving; portfolio mix expected to rebalance in FY28.
• NIMs seen near trough, excluding impact from FCNR-linked liquidity.
• Asset quality remains benign; ECL transition expected to be manageable.
• Expects continued strong loan growth in FY27.
• Medium-term loan growth guided at ~300 bps above system growth.
• Corporate loan growth continues to meet return thresholds.
• Retail disbursement growth improving; portfolio mix expected to rebalance in FY28.
• NIMs seen near trough, excluding impact from FCNR-linked liquidity.
• Asset quality remains benign; ECL transition expected to be manageable.
MORGAN STANLEY ON HYUNDAI MOTOR INDIA ; OVERWEIGHT | TP ₹2,438 FROM ₹2,131
• Sees EBITDA margins, volumes and market share near a trough.
• Two SUV launches expected over the next five months; third-gen Creta may be showcased at Feb 2027 Auto Show.
• Expects exports to rise as India becomes a global Venue production hub.
• Expects H2FY27 run-rate to be 25% above Q1FY27.
• Export margins are ~300 bps higher than domestic sales.
• Values stock at 25x Sep-2028E earnings.
• Key risks: demand slowdown and Bayon cannibalisation.
• Sees EBITDA margins, volumes and market share near a trough.
• Two SUV launches expected over the next five months; third-gen Creta may be showcased at Feb 2027 Auto Show.
• Expects exports to rise as India becomes a global Venue production hub.
• Expects H2FY27 run-rate to be 25% above Q1FY27.
• Export margins are ~300 bps higher than domestic sales.
• Values stock at 25x Sep-2028E earnings.
• Key risks: demand slowdown and Bayon cannibalisation.
GOLDMAN SACHS ON IDFC FIRST BANK ; NEUTRAL | TP ₹92
• Expects strong FY27 loan growth and healthy deposit traction.
• Strong FCNR-B mobilisation; deposit growth expected above industry levels.
• Retains FY27 NIM guidance at 5.8%, with some moderation from FCNR flows.
• Asset quality expected to remain benign.
• Maintains FY27 credit cost guidance at 150–160 bps.
• Expects ROA expansion, driven by operating leverage and lower credit costs.
• Expects strong FY27 loan growth and healthy deposit traction.
• Strong FCNR-B mobilisation; deposit growth expected above industry levels.
• Retains FY27 NIM guidance at 5.8%, with some moderation from FCNR flows.
• Asset quality expected to remain benign.
• Maintains FY27 credit cost guidance at 150–160 bps.
• Expects ROA expansion, driven by operating leverage and lower credit costs.
CLSA ON GODREJ CONSUMER ; UNDERPERFORM | TP ₹743 | CMP ₹905
• India growth may remain weak due to GT inventory correction, high investments and tough input-cost environment.
• Targets GT inventory reduction to 10 days from ~20 days currently.
• Plans ₹200 Cr annual investment across R&D, GTM and marketing.
• Long-term guidance beyond FY27 remains double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue/profit growth.
• Investors likely to focus on quarterly execution given past underperformance versus Dec-2021 guidance.
• Cuts FY27–29 PAT estimates by 4–6%.
• India growth may remain weak due to GT inventory correction, high investments and tough input-cost environment.
• Targets GT inventory reduction to 10 days from ~20 days currently.
• Plans ₹200 Cr annual investment across R&D, GTM and marketing.
• Long-term guidance beyond FY27 remains double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue/profit growth.
• Investors likely to focus on quarterly execution given past underperformance versus Dec-2021 guidance.
• Cuts FY27–29 PAT estimates by 4–6%.
CITI ON RBL BANK ; BUY | TP ₹440 | CMP ₹389.40
• Mobilised ₹32,472 Cr of gross FCNR(B) deposits under RBI swap facility.
• FCNR(B) deposits equal ~26% of total deposits and ~37% of term deposits; ~2.7% FCNR(B) market share.
• Expects FY27 earnings benefit of ~7% uplift in NII and ~10% in PPOP.
• Incremental FCNR flows carry structurally lower margins; sees 40–45 bps optical NIM pressure over next 2 quarters.
• NIM impact expected to be partial in Q2 and fully reflected in Q3.
• ₹26,000 Cr equity infusion should partly cushion NIM pressure.
• NIM trajectory depends on timing of deployment and utilisation of currently unleveraged deposits.
• Mobilised ₹32,472 Cr of gross FCNR(B) deposits under RBI swap facility.
• FCNR(B) deposits equal ~26% of total deposits and ~37% of term deposits; ~2.7% FCNR(B) market share.
• Expects FY27 earnings benefit of ~7% uplift in NII and ~10% in PPOP.
• Incremental FCNR flows carry structurally lower margins; sees 40–45 bps optical NIM pressure over next 2 quarters.
• NIM impact expected to be partial in Q2 and fully reflected in Q3.
• ₹26,000 Cr equity infusion should partly cushion NIM pressure.
• NIM trajectory depends on timing of deployment and utilisation of currently unleveraged deposits.
NOMURA ON GODREJ CONSUMER ; BUY | TP ₹1,100 | CMP ₹905
• New CEO prioritising portfolio transformation and entry into new/future categories.
• Focus on capturing opportunities beyond home care.
• Godrej Lab (G-Lab) created to identify consumer trends and accelerate premium product launches.
• Aims to transform GCPL into a new-age FMCG company.
• AI to be embedded across demand forecasting, media planning and pricing.
• Core categories such as household insecticides and soaps will continue to receive equal focus.
• Focus on reigniting innovation and strengthening execution.
• New CEO prioritising portfolio transformation and entry into new/future categories.
• Focus on capturing opportunities beyond home care.
• Godrej Lab (G-Lab) created to identify consumer trends and accelerate premium product launches.
• Aims to transform GCPL into a new-age FMCG company.
• AI to be embedded across demand forecasting, media planning and pricing.
• Core categories such as household insecticides and soaps will continue to receive equal focus.
• Focus on reigniting innovation and strengthening execution.
HSBC ON HEXAWARE ; HOLD | TP ₹575 | CMP ₹543.60
• CEO Keech to step down and remain advisor; former EXL executive Vivek Jetley appointed CEO.
• New CEO’s key mandate is to reaccelerate growth with sharper execution.
• Strategy likely to remain unchanged, but execution focus expected to improve.
• Maintains HOLD amid near-term business weakness.
• CEO Keech to step down and remain advisor; former EXL executive Vivek Jetley appointed CEO.
• New CEO’s key mandate is to reaccelerate growth with sharper execution.
• Strategy likely to remain unchanged, but execution focus expected to improve.
• Maintains HOLD amid near-term business weakness.
NOMURA ON WAKEFIT ; INITIATES BUY | TP ₹200 | CMP ₹152.47
• Leading play on large home-furnishing opportunity, leveraging mattress leadership to expand into furniture.
• Full-stack operating model driving strong cost efficiencies.
• Expanding online-to-offline D2C leadership in India’s home-furnishing market.
• Expects 19% revenue CAGR and 31% pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR over FY26–29.
• Pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin expected to expand from 7.4% in FY26 to 10.3% by FY29.
• Stock trades at ~40x/29.5x FY28/FY29E P/E; risk-reward seen favourable.
• Leading play on large home-furnishing opportunity, leveraging mattress leadership to expand into furniture.
• Full-stack operating model driving strong cost efficiencies.
• Expanding online-to-offline D2C leadership in India’s home-furnishing market.
• Expects 19% revenue CAGR and 31% pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR over FY26–29.
• Pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin expected to expand from 7.4% in FY26 to 10.3% by FY29.
• Stock trades at ~40x/29.5x FY28/FY29E P/E; risk-reward seen favourable.
🔥 TOP BROKERAGE ACTIONS — SEPTEMBER 03
RR KABEL — JM Financial
🔻 ADD → REDUCE | 🎯 ₹2,750 vs ₹2,850
POLYCAB INDIA — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹9,550 vs ₹10,700
KEI INDUSTRIES — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹5,750 vs ₹6,400
COAL INDIA — Nuvama
🔺 SELL → HOLD | 🎯 ₹454 vs ₹396
PARK MEDI WORLD — Ventura Securities
🔺 BUY | 🎯 ₹406 vs ₹284
SHILPA MEDICARE — Nuvama
🆕 INITIATE BUY | 🎯 ₹1,200
PVR INOX — JM Financial
🔺 ADD | 🎯 ₹1,270 vs ₹1,130
PVR INOX — CLSA
🟢 OUTPERFORM | 🎯 ₹2,135
Key theme: JM Financial turned cautious on the wires & cables space, while Park Medi World and Shilpa Medicare were among the notable positive calls.
RR KABEL — JM Financial
🔻 ADD → REDUCE | 🎯 ₹2,750 vs ₹2,850
POLYCAB INDIA — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹9,550 vs ₹10,700
KEI INDUSTRIES — JM Financial
🔻 BUY → ADD | 🎯 ₹5,750 vs ₹6,400
COAL INDIA — Nuvama
🔺 SELL → HOLD | 🎯 ₹454 vs ₹396
PARK MEDI WORLD — Ventura Securities
🔺 BUY | 🎯 ₹406 vs ₹284
SHILPA MEDICARE — Nuvama
🆕 INITIATE BUY | 🎯 ₹1,200
PVR INOX — JM Financial
🔺 ADD | 🎯 ₹1,270 vs ₹1,130
PVR INOX — CLSA
🟢 OUTPERFORM | 🎯 ₹2,135
Key theme: JM Financial turned cautious on the wires & cables space, while Park Medi World and Shilpa Medicare were among the notable positive calls.
CLSA on GCPL
U-P, TP cut to Rs 743
GCPL reiterated its guidance but cautioned that India business growth might be lower due to
(1) the inventory correction in GT (10 days from 20 currently);
(2) scale-up of investments in R&D, GTM and marketing (Rs2bn annually); and
(3) a challenging input cost environment. It laid out long-term guidance beyond FY27 of double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue and profit growth.
However, believe investors will track quarterly performance given the degree of underperformance vs previous long-term guidance from Dec 2021.
Cut FY27-29CL PAT 4-6%
U-P, TP cut to Rs 743
GCPL reiterated its guidance but cautioned that India business growth might be lower due to
(1) the inventory correction in GT (10 days from 20 currently);
(2) scale-up of investments in R&D, GTM and marketing (Rs2bn annually); and
(3) a challenging input cost environment. It laid out long-term guidance beyond FY27 of double-digit UVG and teens consolidated revenue and profit growth.
However, believe investors will track quarterly performance given the degree of underperformance vs previous long-term guidance from Dec 2021.
Cut FY27-29CL PAT 4-6%
MS on GCPL
EW. TP Rs 1204
Analyst meet takeaways
New CEO discussed co's strategy going ahead and indicated that business is operating as usual.
Medium-term ambitions (DD vol growth, teens revenue and profit growth), F27 targets (HSD India vol growth, DD cons. revenue and EBITDA growth) was reiterated.
Strategy is focussed on reviving the core and driving category expansion.
GCPL will invest Rs2bn annually (to be scaled gradually) in marketing, distribution.
GCPL will correct India GT inventory of Rs1.5bn (1.7% of revenues) aided by better tools leading to some near-term pressure, to be offset at overall level.
EW. TP Rs 1204
Analyst meet takeaways
New CEO discussed co's strategy going ahead and indicated that business is operating as usual.
Medium-term ambitions (DD vol growth, teens revenue and profit growth), F27 targets (HSD India vol growth, DD cons. revenue and EBITDA growth) was reiterated.
Strategy is focussed on reviving the core and driving category expansion.
GCPL will invest Rs2bn annually (to be scaled gradually) in marketing, distribution.
GCPL will correct India GT inventory of Rs1.5bn (1.7% of revenues) aided by better tools leading to some near-term pressure, to be offset at overall level.
Nomura on GCPL
Buy, TP Rs 1100
New CEO highlighted his priorities:
(1) Driving portfolio transformation by: a) entering into more categories of future, b) capturing whitespaces beyond Home Care;
(2) Created Godrej Lab (G-Lab) for new opportunities, spotting within consumer trends and creating / launching top-end products with less time
and effort;
(3) Transform GCPL as a new-age FMCG firm;
(4) Embedding AI in demand forecasting, media planning and pricing models.
He also plans on placing equal focus on core categories like Household Insecticides (HI) and Soaps (that earlier lagged expectations) by bringing back the innovation spark and strengthening execution both on operational level and converting strategy into actions
Buy, TP Rs 1100
New CEO highlighted his priorities:
(1) Driving portfolio transformation by: a) entering into more categories of future, b) capturing whitespaces beyond Home Care;
(2) Created Godrej Lab (G-Lab) for new opportunities, spotting within consumer trends and creating / launching top-end products with less time
and effort;
(3) Transform GCPL as a new-age FMCG firm;
(4) Embedding AI in demand forecasting, media planning and pricing models.
He also plans on placing equal focus on core categories like Household Insecticides (HI) and Soaps (that earlier lagged expectations) by bringing back the innovation spark and strengthening execution both on operational level and converting strategy into actions
Nomura on eClerx
Neutral, TP Rs 1830
Analyst day takeaways
Aiming to be in top-quartile growth quadrant.
Aims to scale eClerx’s revenue run-rate from USD500mn (1QFY27) to USD1bn+, but did not specify any timeline
AI as a fundamental competitive moat and TAM expander
Disciplined M&A to build capabilities and not just build revenues
Stock currently trades at 19.8x FY28F EPS of INR101.
Neutral, TP Rs 1830
Analyst day takeaways
Aiming to be in top-quartile growth quadrant.
Aims to scale eClerx’s revenue run-rate from USD500mn (1QFY27) to USD1bn+, but did not specify any timeline
AI as a fundamental competitive moat and TAM expander
Disciplined M&A to build capabilities and not just build revenues
Stock currently trades at 19.8x FY28F EPS of INR101.
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Worker shortages hit 61% of auto suppliers even as EV shift promises 7.2 million jobs ; BL Reports
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