*Lupin – Q1FY22 Concall Update – Nirmal Bang Sec.*
*Outlook – Negative for near term*
*_Expect recovery from 2H onwards whereas Q2 is also likely to remain challenging_*
The stock is trading at 27.3x FY22E consensus earnings
• Witnessing promising momentum on complex generics and India biz – this would enhance the performance in coming quarters
• See high teens for India for FY22
• Albuterol was lower due to transition from spot buyers to long term buyers – should see the traction from Q3FY22. Not seeing any more competition coming in
• Gross margins are down due to change in recognition of partner’s product royalty payments – lost market share in Famotidine, slow ramp up in Albuterol, royalty accounting, FTS (fail To Supply) penalty, product Mix
• See substantial scope for growth and improvement in margins in 2H
• FY22 - Double digit of growth in revenues with 16-17% EBITDA (lower than earlier guidance of 19-20%) and 17-18% in 2H as *Q2 would be tough as well*
• Saw additional competition in Levothyroxine and Famotidine
• Reasons for price erosion – due to lack of approvals from USFDA there is more competition in existing products, new wave of companies have got more aggressive to get market share at lower pricing, customers negotiating hard to compensate the losses of last year
• 4-5% yoy price erosion in base biz
• Planning to Fostair by end of this month in UK – and in other European countries by next year
• USFDA accepted Peg biosimilar filing – would require USFDA inspection before launch – most likely would be able to launch in US by next year – USFDA has started inspection from local office
• In the process of preparing response for Spiriva CRL scheduled in September
• Aspire to go $200nmn per quarter in US by Q3
• Expect 4 filings in injectables in FY22
*Outlook – Negative for near term*
*_Expect recovery from 2H onwards whereas Q2 is also likely to remain challenging_*
The stock is trading at 27.3x FY22E consensus earnings
• Witnessing promising momentum on complex generics and India biz – this would enhance the performance in coming quarters
• See high teens for India for FY22
• Albuterol was lower due to transition from spot buyers to long term buyers – should see the traction from Q3FY22. Not seeing any more competition coming in
• Gross margins are down due to change in recognition of partner’s product royalty payments – lost market share in Famotidine, slow ramp up in Albuterol, royalty accounting, FTS (fail To Supply) penalty, product Mix
• See substantial scope for growth and improvement in margins in 2H
• FY22 - Double digit of growth in revenues with 16-17% EBITDA (lower than earlier guidance of 19-20%) and 17-18% in 2H as *Q2 would be tough as well*
• Saw additional competition in Levothyroxine and Famotidine
• Reasons for price erosion – due to lack of approvals from USFDA there is more competition in existing products, new wave of companies have got more aggressive to get market share at lower pricing, customers negotiating hard to compensate the losses of last year
• 4-5% yoy price erosion in base biz
• Planning to Fostair by end of this month in UK – and in other European countries by next year
• USFDA accepted Peg biosimilar filing – would require USFDA inspection before launch – most likely would be able to launch in US by next year – USFDA has started inspection from local office
• In the process of preparing response for Spiriva CRL scheduled in September
• Aspire to go $200nmn per quarter in US by Q3
• Expect 4 filings in injectables in FY22
*Aster DM Healthcare Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 157 | *M Cap* Rs. 7842 Cr | *52 W H/L* 180/118
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result is in-line with expectations*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 2371.6 Cr (-0.8% QoQ, 34.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 2339.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 2390.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 1760.6 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 280.9 Cr (-12.5% QoQ, 96.8% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 289.1 Cr, QoQ Rs. 321.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 142.7 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 11.8% vs expectation of 12.4%, QoQ 13.4%, YoY 8.1%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 59.6 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 57 Cr, QoQ Rs. 105.4 Cr, YoY Rs. -82.9 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 1.2
Share is trading at P/E of 19x FY22E EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result is in-line with expectations*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 2371.6 Cr (-0.8% QoQ, 34.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 2339.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 2390.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 1760.6 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 280.9 Cr (-12.5% QoQ, 96.8% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 289.1 Cr, QoQ Rs. 321.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 142.7 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 11.8% vs expectation of 12.4%, QoQ 13.4%, YoY 8.1%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 59.6 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 57 Cr, QoQ Rs. 105.4 Cr, YoY Rs. -82.9 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 1.2
Share is trading at P/E of 19x FY22E EPS
*Shreyas Shipping & Logistics Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 206 | *M Cap* Rs. 452 Cr | *52 W H/L* 240/46
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result has improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 189.2 Cr (12.5% QoQ, 70.8% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 168.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 110.7 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 45.9 Cr (64% QoQ, 5171.3% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 28 Cr, YoY Rs. 0.9 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 24.2% vs QoQ 16.6%, YoY 0.8%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 41.1 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 29.3 Cr, YoY Rs. -9.9 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 18.7
Share is trading at P/E of 4.9x TTM EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result has improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 189.2 Cr (12.5% QoQ, 70.8% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 168.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 110.7 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 45.9 Cr (64% QoQ, 5171.3% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 28 Cr, YoY Rs. 0.9 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 24.2% vs QoQ 16.6%, YoY 0.8%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 41.1 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 29.3 Cr, YoY Rs. -9.9 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 18.7
Share is trading at P/E of 4.9x TTM EPS
*Antony Waste Handling Cell Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 335 | *M Cap* Rs. 948 Cr | *52 W H/L* 493/241
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 145.4 Cr (8.3% QoQ, 58.6% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 134.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 91.7 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 37.4 Cr (24.6% QoQ, 62.5% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 30 Cr, YoY Rs. 23 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 25.7% vs QoQ 22.4%, YoY 25.1%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 16.8 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 11.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 11.2 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 5.9
Share is trading at P/E of 10.8x FY22E EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 145.4 Cr (8.3% QoQ, 58.6% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 134.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 91.7 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 37.4 Cr (24.6% QoQ, 62.5% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 30 Cr, YoY Rs. 23 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 25.7% vs QoQ 22.4%, YoY 25.1%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 16.8 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 11.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 11.2 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 5.9
Share is trading at P/E of 10.8x FY22E EPS
*CUMMINS INDIA LTD.* | *CMP* Rs. 945 | *M Cap* Rs. 26195 Cr | *52 W H/L* 945/390
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result inline with Expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 1184.5 Cr (-5% QoQ, 137.8% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 1147.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1246.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 498.2 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 148.8 Cr (-11.2% QoQ, 5030.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 144.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 167.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 2.9 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 12.6% vs expectation of 12.6%, QoQ 13.4%, YoY 0.6%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 104.3 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 142.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 185.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 52.6 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 3.8
Share is trading at P/E of 34.4x FY22E EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result inline with Expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 1184.5 Cr (-5% QoQ, 137.8% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 1147.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1246.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 498.2 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 148.8 Cr (-11.2% QoQ, 5030.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 144.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 167.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 2.9 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 12.6% vs expectation of 12.6%, QoQ 13.4%, YoY 0.6%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 104.3 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 142.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 185.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 52.6 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 3.8
Share is trading at P/E of 34.4x FY22E EPS
*PTC INDIA LTD.* | *CMP* Rs. 96 | *M Cap* Rs. 2842 Cr | *52 W H/L* 111/45
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result marginally below expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 4621.2 Cr (28.6% QoQ, 8.4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 5743.2 Cr, QoQ Rs. 3592.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 4262.4 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 109 Cr (-37.3% QoQ, 15.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 125.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 173.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 94.2 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 2.4% vs expectation of 2.2%, QoQ 4.8%, YoY 2.2%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 76.9 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 85.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 123.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 67.7 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 2.6
Share is trading at P/E of 6.2x FY22E EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result marginally below expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 4621.2 Cr (28.6% QoQ, 8.4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 5743.2 Cr, QoQ Rs. 3592.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 4262.4 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 109 Cr (-37.3% QoQ, 15.7% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 125.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 173.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 94.2 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 2.4% vs expectation of 2.2%, QoQ 4.8%, YoY 2.2%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 76.9 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 85.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 123.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 67.7 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 2.6
Share is trading at P/E of 6.2x FY22E EPS